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ACUS11 KWNS 130149
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130149=20
TXZ000-130315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0465
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0849 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

Areas affected...south-central Texas.

Concerning...Tornado Watch 112...

Valid 130149Z - 130315Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 112 continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated supercells may continue to pose a risk for large
hail, strong winds and perhaps a couple of tornadoes this evening.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar analysis showed two isolated supercells
have broken away from the main convective line in the vicinity of
College Station, TX. IR/Echo top trends have remained fairly steady
state indicating little overall change in convective intensity over
the preceding hour. While surface temperatures have begun to cool in
response to the loss of diurnal heating, a fairly strong (30-40 kt
low-level jet) will continue advecting rich moisture (tds 70F)
northward ahead of these storms offsetting nocturnal stabilization
somewhat. Low-level shear (0-1km SRH 150-200 m2/s2) has also
increased from regional VWPs, suggesting some potential for a couple
of tornadoes (especially with the lead storm) in addition to large
hail and strong winds. Observational trends suggest the severe
threat may linger for a few more hours with these storms given their
favorable mode and strong updrafts.

..Lyons.. 04/13/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uTql1f5FaI4v046RBAHcHpub0ZsLWaOz2IbhATpktgzyO6W7-hHBaaQcnFZVj4Kx5ft0CDZX$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON 30919696 31049710 31199706 31339666 31389607 31369568
31289546 30999534 30769542 30679581 30709628 30759655
30799672 30919696=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 050055
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050054=20
ILZ000-050230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0465
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 PM CDT Tue Apr 04 2023

Areas affected...Central Illinois

Concerning...Tornado Watch 115...

Valid 050054Z - 050230Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 115 continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated supercell may continue for the next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...Supercell that evolved along the southwestern flank of
a more complex cluster of storms over northeast MO has progressed
into central IL southwest of PIA. This storm has a history of
producing tornadoes and continues to exhibit severe characteristics
over eastern Fulton, southern Peoria, and western Tazewell County
region. This storm appears to have slowed a bit over the last hour
as it begins to encounter increasingly hostile air mass downstream.
00z sounding from ILX is strongly capped at 850mb which supports
weakening updrafts with time. However, strong low-level SRH and
deep-layer shear may allow this storm to survive a bit longer than
otherwise would be expected. It's not entirely clear how long this
supercell will remain severe but it may advance beyond the eastern
edge of ww115.

..Darrow.. 04/05/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8tbpyuSaTzKNzVOLhq_ZQvr6ko9oa7B2Rmj36BMugEC8UvsJYQa-AnWw0jGe0N24ReP1Iy1ax= jHYeOLRYrW3WpChzbA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...

LAT...LON 40669005 41028867 40678823 40348868 40319000 40669005=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 162147
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162147=20
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-162315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0465
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0447 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Areas affected...portions of eastern/southeastern Iowa into
northwestern Illinois

Concerning...Tornado Watch 117...

Valid 162147Z - 162315Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 117 continues.

SUMMARY...The ongoing convective line has evolved into semi-discrete
supercells which will allow for an increase in the risk for all
hazards over the next couple of hours. A favorable
shear/thermodynamic environment may also support a strong (EF-2+)
tornado.

DISCUSSION...As of 2140 UTC, regional radar and satellite data
showed the ongoing convective line in southeastern IA has trended
towards more semi-discrete elements, especially with southward
extent, over the last hour. The broader environment remains
favorable for severe storms with moderate buoyancy and strong
deep-layer shear established. Low-level shear has also increased
ahead of the storms with backed surface flow supporting 300-400
m2/s2 of effective SRH observed from area VADs and SPC mesoanalysis.
With a more supercellular mode emerging, the potential for stronger mesocyclones within a strong low-level shear environment suggests an
increasing potential for tornadoes, in addition to the continued
risk for damaging winds and hail. STP values of 2-3 along with 0-3km
CAPE of 50-100 J/kg favor strong low-level stretching of vertical
vorticity. Large low-level hodogaphs may also support the risk for a
strong (EF-2+) tornado with the longer lived supercells. This
increasing risk may extended near the Quad Cities and farther east
into parts of northwestern IL over the next couple of hours.

..Lyons.. 04/16/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6WoSaOPU4c1psmfz8VVtDLy51KocH5YEEZDk9E3Shl1xmXc9VtlYz8vZpy7dH5qj4oGLFugdn= HCj2B6cEsC5Npt7MTM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON 40139192 40529199 41239180 41809172 42069158 42239133
42469092 42449068 42489007 42298974 41508988 40649056
40219150 40139192=20


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