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ACUS11 KWNS 130015
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130014=20
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-130215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0464
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0714 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Minnesota...northeastern Iowa...southwestern Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 130014Z - 130215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The evolution of an increasingly organized cluster of
storms seems probable this evening, before overspreading the region
through 10 PM-Midnight, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind
gusts and tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...Strong thunderstorm development continues to increase
in coverage in association with large-scale ascent downstream of a
deep northeastward migrating surface cyclone. This is being aided
by forcing associated with a subtle lead short wave perturbation,
and includes an evolving cluster of supercells near the Fort Dodge
IA area.=20=20

As the mid-level perturbation migrates northeast of the mid Missouri
Valley toward the Upper Midwest through mid to late evening,
considerable further upscale convective growth will continue to
ensue. The evolution of an increasingly organized mesoscale
convective system seems probable as the environment destabilizes
coincident with increasing forcing for ascent overspreading the
region.=20

Embedded within strengthening deep-layer ambient mean flow (in
excess of 50 kt), increasingly widespread damaging wind gusts are
possible. A coinciding larger-scale bow structure may evolve in
radar reflectivities, with embedded supercell structures posing a
risk for tornadoes, mainly where the apex of the bow intersects a
northeastward advancing warm front ahead of the surface cyclone.

..Kerr/Hart.. 04/13/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!s5FluMt8uCU54cGn8jZU0osLVmZqhULvSXkA3Fdx5Jr-ltq5L9aMzd6WbN-_zRejg2c8BAGk$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON 42779363 44229246 44949157 43868977 41689225 42279370
42779363=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 042335
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042335=20
MIZ000-050030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0464
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0635 PM CDT Tue Apr 04 2023

Areas affected...portions of southern Lower Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 042335Z - 050030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Large hail will remain a threat with a supercell across
lower Michigan for a couple more hours. A WW issuance is not
expected given the localized nature of the severe threat.

DISCUSSION...An elevated supercell with a history of severe hail has
recently shown intensification over the past hour, with MRMS mosaic
radar data showing 30 dBZ echoes exceeding 45 kft. Continued
low-level warm-air advection amid 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates
(shown in the 23Z mesoanalysis), are contributing to a few hundred
J/kg of elevated MUCAPE across southern Lower Michigan. Despite the
elevated nature of the storms, intense speed/directional shear are
contributing to very large hodographs, with enough SRH being
ingested into the storm to continue supporting efficient mid-level
rotation and associated production of large hail. Severe potential
should continue for at least a couple more hours with this storm,
and very large hail (2+ inches in diameter) cannot be ruled out.=20

Given that the severe threat is expected to be associated with this
one storm, and since longevity of this storm is in question, a WW
issuance is not expected.

..Squitieri.. 04/04/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-i3fs4-Jn7sReE1lNvZ3jZGFnyYyRBFBMT2LzD0vT1-8z1FqKR3qFmMblSF2mLbOvsRFK3PiA= s2yZCGPlzxzoWuugV8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR...

LAT...LON 42788542 42938462 42998411 42818370 42618378 42538422
42508479 42558541 42788542=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 162041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162040=20
ILZ000-WIZ000-162215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0464
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Areas affected...portions of northern/central IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 162040Z - 162215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Severe potential may slowly increase over the next few
hours into parts of northern and central Illinois. A watch may be
needed at some point late this afternoon, but timing remains
uncertain.

DISCUSSION...A band of storms continues to lift northeast across
eastern IA into western IL this afternoon. Much of the convection is
somewhat disorganized in a messy storm mode. Downstream into
northern/central IL, some modest increase in boundary-layer moisture
still may occur as a warm front lifts north. While strong heating
has occurred, some weak inhibition remains over parts of the area. Nevertheless, modest boundary-layer moisture beneath midlevel lapse
rates around 7 C/km are supporting weak instability (MLCAPE 1000
J/kg or less). The initial band of convection moving toward the MCD
area may largely remain unproductive. However, as large-scale ascent
increasing toward evening, a secondary band of convection may move
into the area and post more of a severe risk. Given the somewhat
limited thermodynamic environment (despite favorable vertical
shear), severe potential may only gradually increase toward evening.
The area will be monitored for potential watch issuance, but timing
is uncertain.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 04/16/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4hhXFGi2NfkRPzNRRa5lVYanPqK-zNNME-6aXOtPSLS2sd6UbHsPsnY5iybozVnenrtMHNMlP= d6WiLO3uy1mhD6o1Y0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...

LAT...LON 42588989 42398864 41868769 41098752 40288757 39768819
39688902 40068964 41318962 42588989=20


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