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ACUS11 KWNS 130000
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122359=20
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-130200-
Mesoscale Discussion 0463
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022
Areas affected...portions of the ArkLaTex
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20
Valid 122359Z - 130200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Ongoing storms across northern/central Texas will continue
rapidly northeastward this evening. Organization into a small MCS
with a threat for damaging winds and perhaps a couple tornadoes
appears likely.
DISCUSSION...As of 0000 UTC, region radar imagery showed a complex
of strong/severe thunderstorms ongoing across northern and central
Texas. Northern portions of this cluster have recently organized
into a more linear configuration and accelerated northeastward as
strong outflow has developing. Current timing guidance places the
leading edge of these storms out of WW112 by 0130z. Current
observational trends and hi-res guidance suggest these storms will
continue to pose a risk for severe wind gusts and perhaps a couple
of QLCS tornadoes as the cluster grows upscale into an MCS and move northeastward into the ArkLaTex. While cooler than farther west due
to persistent cloud cover, continued warm advection of upper 60s and
low 70s F surface dewpoints northward along the low-level jet will
likely offset nocturnal stabilization. RAP sounding show approx 2000
J/kg of MLCAPE with 30-40 kt of effective shear. Low-level
hodographs remain fairly large with 0-1km shear of 20-30 kts
expected near the jet core. This along with sufficient buoyancy and
a moistening surface environment should continue to support strong
gusts and a few tornadoes.
..Lyons/Hart.. 04/12/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oGkcA-NH3hzQdMT91pCtnt4RK0IYaa9Ph-Ia7AiZ9H2rXIQ93MjjzQV3zf56dDUmWzSq0Z5t$=
for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...
LAT...LON 33129215 32579232 32179251 31679289 31469341 31129493
31049535 31119564 31279576 31459574 31779569 32679552
33269547 33609529 33899480 34049418 34119366 34119319
34039272 33939246 33769227 33509214 33129215=20
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