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ACUS11 KWNS 112147
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112146=20
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-112315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0448
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0446 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

Areas affected...portions of north-central and northeast Texas and south-central Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 112146Z - 112315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A conditional risk for severe thunderstorms is expected
along the dryline this afternoon and evening. Supercells with a
primary risk for of large hail, damaging wind gusts will be
possible. A weather watch is possible though uncertainty remains
high.

DISCUSSION...As of 2130Z, visible imagery showed deepening congestus
towers along a dryline observed across north central Texas and
south-central Oklahoma. To the east of the dryline, very warm
temperatures (80s to 90s F) and deep surface moisture (dewpoints in
the low to mid 60s F) are supporting 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Zonal
mid-level flow associated with a low amplitude shortwave trough
crossing the region was enhancing mid-level shear with VWPS and
mesoanalysis showing 40-50 kt EBWD orthogonal to the dryline. This
in combination with deep and veering wind profiles will
conditionally support discrete sueprcellular convection. Very steep
mid-level lapse rates (~9 C/km) from observed and model soundings
will favor large hail with any sustained updrafts. Damaging winds
are also possible given the warm surface temperatures and fairly
large T/TD spreads. The tornado risk appears lower owing to weaker
surface flow and some low-level veering. Experimental WOFS guidance
has shown several discrete updrafts initiating over the last few
runs and posing a severe risk into this evening. While uncertainty
remains high, some severe risk appears possible across south-central
Oklahoma and north Texas this evening. Conditions are being
monitored for a possible weather watch.

..Lyons/Hart.. 04/11/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!saY-U7wZ4MdboT-F7_LH6gXQhvdAX8ucgZTOOcDN3dDL6zWzlVZsa5uTKwqXsD67-nBcNMN_$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 33529707 33929688 34139686 34439670 34569634 34569589
34549554 34389509 34249492 34039473 33889451 33609425
33339434 33109445 32649477 32199521 31489603 31249660
31169712 31199739 31289769 31509796 31869792 32069784
32649742 33139725 33529707=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 031820
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031820=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-031945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0448
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 PM CDT Mon Apr 03 2023

Areas affected...southern GA into northern FL

Concerning...Tornado Watch 113...

Valid 031820Z - 031945Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 113 continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging gusts and a spin-up tornado will continue to be
possible across far southwest GA. The severe threat should lessen as
storms move into southeast GA/northeast FL.

DISCUSSION...A bowing area of convection shifting east/southeast
along a warm front across southwest GA near the FL state line will
continue moving along an instability gradient the next few hours.
This area of storms recently produced a 56 kt gust at BGE. A threat
for damaging gusts and a spin-up tornado will continue for another
1-2 hours. Thereafter, the severe threat is expected to lessen as
storms move into southeast GA/northeast FL. This downstream airmass
is characterized by weaker instability, driven by lower dewpoints in
the mid/upper 50s. While some potential for strong gusts may
persist, the less favorable boundary-layer and weakening vertical
shear should limit severe potential downstream from WW 113. At this
time, a downstream watch is not expected, but trends will continue
to be monitored.

..Leitman.. 04/03/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7Krot32dEllrf_kpbM1U5UhqtWkCsUubkB6BPhSw0TrltGuOh2YP5FwuDOdJfh2GNP4xR4-OC= _vTjCMez-pyZWXCB5A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 31328390 31118223 30828200 30388230 30228309 30408406
30548457 30958461 31268423 31328390=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 160014
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160013=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-160245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0448
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0713 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Areas affected...parts of western/central Kansas into south central
Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 160013Z - 160245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Rapid thunderstorm development and intensification appears
probable at some point this evening, most likely by 10 PM-Midnight,
but perhaps an hour or two earlier. Once storms form, a few
supercells are likely posing a risk for large hail and tornadoes, a
couple of which could become strong. Trends are closely being
monitored for a watch issuance, which seems likely at some point,
though timing remains a bit unclear.

DISCUSSION...A significant mid-level trough and embedded low are in
the process of overspreading the the southern Rockies, with the
leading edge of stronger mid-level height falls beginning to impact
the high plains from the Texas Panhandle through the Black Hills
vicinity. As intensifying southwesterly mid-level flow (in excess
of 90 kt around 500 mb) noses across the Texas Panhandle vicinity
through 02-04Z, strengthening mid/upper forcing for ascent likely
will increasingly interact with a retreating dryline across western Kansas.=20=20

As boundary-layer moisture, characterized by dew points increasing
as high as the lower/mid 60s, advects westward beneath steepening
lapse rates aided by cooling aloft, forecast soundings suggest
mixed-layer CAPE may increase in excess of 2000 J/kg within at least
a narrow corridor. By mid to late evening, it appears that this
will roughly become focused along an axis from near Dodge City KS
into areas west of Kearney NE.=20=20

Some increase in high based convective development is already
evident to the west of the dryline across the Texas Panhandle into
western Kansas. While guidance has generally been suggestive that
more substantive convective development and thunderstorm initiation=20
may not commence until closer to the 03-05Z time frame, it is not
certain that this will not occur sooner. Of primary concern, once
storms initiate, intensification may be rapid and include at least
one or two supercells with potential to produce strong tornadoes, as boundary-layer moistening and destabilization coincide with
enlarging clockwise-curved hodographs beneath southerly 850 mb flow strengthening in excess of 50 kt.

..Kerr/Thompson.. 04/16/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8hrYREQGmMf3v6V3vp-ExHzzNeF3-flONBhT8aGioCyyV_572AkrLXSW28eeTq1SrlmWo4fQx= 6jZks6um_PZrlOnGdE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 37830081 39880027 40579936 39959859 37869899 37019987
37090065 37830081=20


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