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ACUS11 KWNS 080152
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080152=20
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-080345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0225
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CST Mon Mar 07 2022

Areas affected...portions of Long Island New York...Connecticut...Massachusetts...far southern New Hampshire

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 080152Z - 080345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of damaging gusts may accompany the stronger
segments of an approaching squall line. Greater damaging gust
coverage is questionable and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance
does not appear likely at this time.

DISCUSSION...A narrow, low-topped squall line continues to rapidly
progress eastward given strong forcing along the surface lee-trough
axis and intense 850-500 mb wind fields. Multiple instances of near
50 kt gusts and tree damage have been reported over the least few
hours. Strong mechanical mixing within the squall is likely
supporting the damaging gust threat in absence of any appreciable
buoyancy. However, 21Z RAP forecast soundings valid for 02Z depict a
saturated but stable surface-925 mb layer across portions of lower
New England, which is expected to weaken mechanical mixing to some
degree.

The need for a downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance remains
unclear. The current thinking is that damaging gusts will become
more sparse with time and areas of Long Island into southern New
Hampshire will not need a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance.
Nonetheless, given considerable momentum of the ongoing squall, at
least a slight chance exists for a corridor of strong wind gusts
causing sporadic tree damage, so conditions will continue to be
monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

..Squitieri/Kerr.. 03/08/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tOizpk4c9nuGN69aJF_QoOdZQrIASMSQdpzi2R6tRIZDyHaZBcrFaRQd8iQF4Cu5DHZd9ubR$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...

LAT...LON 40607374 42227306 42877257 43097186 43077125 42937096
42347075 41827096 41347158 40967208 40597295 40607374=20



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------------=_1646705616-112669-11654
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ACUS11 KWNS 080213
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080213 COR
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-080345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0225
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0813 PM CST Mon Mar 07 2022

Areas affected...portions of Long Island New York...Connecticut...Massachusetts...far southern New
Hampshire...Rhode Island

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 080213Z - 080345Z

CORRECTED FOR AREA

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of damaging gusts may accompany the stronger
segments of an approaching squall line. Greater damaging gust
coverage is questionable and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance
does not appear likely at this time.

DISCUSSION...A narrow, low-topped squall line continues to rapidly
progress eastward given strong forcing along the surface lee-trough
axis and intense 850-500 mb wind fields. Multiple instances of near
50 kt gusts and tree damage have been reported over the least few
hours. Strong mechanical mixing within the squall is likely
supporting the damaging gust threat in absence of any appreciable
buoyancy. However, 21Z RAP forecast soundings valid for 02Z depict a
saturated but stable surface-925 mb layer across portions of lower
New England, which is expected to weaken mechanical mixing to some
degree.

The need for a downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance remains
unclear. The current thinking is that damaging gusts will become
more sparse with time and areas of Long Island into southern New
Hampshire will not need a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance.
Nonetheless, given considerable momentum of the ongoing squall, at
least a slight chance exists for a corridor of strong wind gusts
causing sporadic tree damage, so conditions will continue to be
monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

..Squitieri/Kerr.. 03/08/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!s7Eb0Hs261kBLqs84zIyG4PmIe_5HqSc13UxGfO-Aax0dheCNqYfVcHNWHW7ybbGpeCn3PPX$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...

LAT...LON 40607374 42227306 42877257 43097186 43077125 42937096
42347075 41827096 41347158 40967208 40597295 40607374=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 021324
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021323=20
ARZ000-OKZ000-021600-

Mesoscale Discussion 0225
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0723 AM CST Thu Mar 02 2023

Areas affected...parts of eastern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 021323Z - 021600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorm development, potentially
supercells capable of producing sizable hail, appears possible as
early as 9-11 AM. It is not certain a severe weather watch will be
needed, but trends are being monitored for this possibility.

DISCUSSION...Low-level moisture return is ongoing on southerly
low-level flow across much of the southern Great Plains. This
includes areas as far north as southeastern Oklahoma, above a
shallow near-surface stable layer, to the cool side of a surface
frontal zone. Based on forecast soundings (and the 12Z sounding
from Norman), this may be contributing to CAPE on the order of
1000-2000 J/kg, beneath steep mid-level lapse rates associated with
a plume of elevated mixed-layer air.

Despite inhibition associated with the elevated mixed layer,
deepening convective development is already evident in satellite
imagery near and west through north of the McAlester vicinity.=20
Various model guidance, including the Rapid Refresh and High
Resolution Ensemble output, suggest that forcing for ascent, likely
driven by lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection beneath difluent
upper flow, may support the initiation of increasing thunderstorm
development as early as 15-17Z.

With forecast hodographs within the elevated potential inflow layer
forecast to enlarge somewhat, and become clockwise curved, in the
presence of strong cloud-bearing layer shear, the environment
appears conducive to supercells capable of producing large hail.

..Kerr/Edwards.. 03/02/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7F5A6VvTDLhQ3wpvjK3lbbwkhWCng-TgdCzDAJqytDxNrY-dKI8FhIiR3FzzJGAZ8Wr-TSiwX= PfHET6jJ1jUVqU62Gk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 35729654 35889525 35409434 34619514 34459601 34359720
35079712 35729654=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 140311
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140310=20
MOZ000-KSZ000-140515-

Mesoscale Discussion 0225
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1010 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Areas affected...Eastern Kansas...Western and Central Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 140310Z - 140515Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to develop across the
remainder of eastern Kansas around midnight. The storms are forecast
to spread east-northeastward into Missouri during the early
overnight period. Weather watch issuance will likely be needed
across the region within the next 90 minutes.

DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level
trough over the Desert Southwest, with a mid-level jet in the base
of the system extending east-northeastward into the southern Plains
and northern Ozarks. A distinct mid-level vorticity max is located
over far southwest Kansas. This feature will move across the central
Plains late this evening. As large-scale ascent increases ahead of
the vorticity max, scattered strong thunderstorms are expected to
develop across south-central Kansas, and move east-northeastward
across eastern Kansas and Missouri. According to the RAP, MLCAPE
within this area is between 1000 and 1500 J/kg, 0-6 km shear is in
the 40 to 50 knot range, and 700-500 mb lapse rates are from 7.5 to
8 C/km. This should support a severe threat overnight, especially
the stronger cells interact with the low-level jet. Supercells with
large hail appear likely, and wind damage will also be possible.

..Broyles/Hart.. 03/14/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!93Y_CfhTkPdJTUQPnLQfRBJm597gB67BZscF8yg21DZSjzAb-hHjQasW0zbsQueKXYCBnvPJm= M4NO7hY64ahT5CVxi4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 37899643 38439646 39129617 40039316 40209236 40029169
39339119 38329112 37779177 37279309 37059441 37019556
37059581 37329634 37899643=20


=3D =3D =3D
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