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ACUS11 KWNS 072322
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072322=20
NCZ000-VAZ000-080045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0440
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0622 PM CDT Thu Apr 07 2022

Areas affected...portions of northeastern North Carolina and far
southeastern Virginia

Concerning...Tornado Watch 104...

Valid 072322Z - 080045Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 104 continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for damaging wind gusts and isolated hail may
continue for another hour or two across parts of eastern North
Carolina and far southeastern Virginia. Storms are expected to
gradually weaken and move offshore by 00-01z.

DISCUSSION...As of 2315Z, regional radar was observing a cluster of strong/severe storms in the vicinity of the NC/VA border. Over the
last several hours, reports of strong winds and large hail have
occurred with this cluster ahead of a southward surging composite
outflow boundary/cold front. Ahead of this boundary, warm and
unstable surface conditions (MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg) may continue to
support a severe risk as convection approaches the Atlantic Coast.
It remains unclear the magnitude of this risk, given the propensity
for undercutting by the composite outflow/front and more stable
conditions near the shore. While radar and lightning trends have
shown a general decrease in convective coverage/intensity over the
last 30-45 min, the magnitude of buoyancy and 40-50 kts of effective
shear may still support a risk for damaging gusts and occasional
hail with organized line segments/clusters before they move offshore
later this evening.

..Lyons.. 04/07/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qpsCilkh_OjLp3GX8ECU4DEXCtqh0Usn1ZXlj7HvL4u_qsfOHFZTWqet8X7Hxur63yeqg-k9$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

LAT...LON 35537750 35877739 36167709 36577661 36787620 36807602
36707582 36507569 36227570 36067575 35797601 35607639
35427688 35397723 35537750=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 030021
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030021=20
TXZ000-030215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0440
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0721 PM CDT Sun Apr 02 2023

Areas affected...North/Central TX

Concerning...Tornado Watch 110...

Valid 030021Z - 030215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 110 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for severe thunderstorms capable of all severe
hazards, including tornadoes and very large hail, remain possible.
Localized area of greater tornado risk likely exists across central
Texas for the next hour or two.

DISCUSSION...Discrete supercells continue to move
eastward/southeastward across north/central TX this evening. The
southernmost pair of supercells, over Bosque/Hill and Coryell/Bell
Counties, is upstream of a narrow corridor of more favorable
low-level moisture and slightly stronger southeasterly surface
winds. Recent surface observations along I-35 show dewpoints in the
upper 60s to low 70s amid temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Recent mesoanalysis estimates effective-layer STP is 4 to 5 in this
region. As a result, additional storm intensification/organization
is possible as the ongoing supercells enter this region. All severe
hazards are possible, including very large hail and tornadoes.

A more linear storm mode exists farther north over Grayson, Denton,
and Collin counties, where storms have organized along the outflow
boundary. Ample downstream buoyancy, as well as updraft augmentation
due to interaction with the warm front, suggests these storms will
persist downstream. Primary threats are damaging gusts and hail,
although an embedded tornado is also possible on the southern end of
the line where surface-based parcels are more probable.

..Mosier.. 04/03/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_Aa6SA0peGdCUC-_R618UlVTAXs87A_ECSdfxDwNvkL2Zf3AsthAF3Bo3T0Wlwx1j6z-xSnXX= KrVPyilWC7-1WMv2CU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...

LAT...LON 31079804 31709778 32979738 33719649 33419537 31759619
30759686 31079804=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 151853
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151852=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-151945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0440
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Areas affected...Northwest Texas into the Permian Basin

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 151852Z - 151945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms are expected to develop between 1930Z
and 2030Z across northwest Texas and vicinity.

DISCUSSION...Extensive mid and upper-level cloud cover has limited
heating across northwest Texas for much of the day. However, south
of these thicker clouds, more substantial heating has occurred with temperatures in the mid-to-upper 80s in the Concho Valley. Low-level
moisture advection also continues across the area with more rich
moisture arriving earlier this afternoon. This, combined with weak
cooling aloft, will lead to additional destabilization through the afternoon.=20

Satellite indicates the environment remains capped, but SPC
mesoanalysis shows inhibition starting to weaken, a trend which will
continue over the next 1 to 2 hours. The first wave of ascent can be
seen on water vapor approaching the New Mexico/Texas border. As this overspreads the dryline, localized breaching of the CAP should be
sufficient for storm development where temperatures have warmed in
to the mid to upper 80s. This timing matches preferred 12Z CAM
guidance (NSSL MPAS) and the 17Z WoFS. Moderate to strong
instability combined with 60+ knots of effective shear will support
supercells, with an initial threat for large hail (up to baseball
size) and severe wind gusts (up to 75 mph). However, by later this
evening, the tornado threat will increase as the low-level jet
intensifies and STP values increase to 2 to 3 (per 17Z WoFS). A
tornado watch will be needed in the next 1 to 2 hours.

..Bentley/Smith.. 04/15/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8LM2ORltx-PwJQjNv3wIRymNWlXhvfIJQRpdgcC4ksYWXEcsis_nsb5UnsEJyYopwlkrVJrfK= oYf1uKR8tudDC-pypk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 34539958 34580005 34100087 33430152 32900168 31600179
31090145 31390010 32699919 33979886 34279907 34539958=20


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