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ACUS11 KWNS 071531
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071531=20
FLZ000-071730-

Mesoscale Discussion 0436
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1031 AM CDT Thu Apr 07 2022

Areas affected...central Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 071531Z - 071730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Convection moving onshore over the west-central Florida
coast will be accompanied by some severe risk locally, but
overall/anticipated severe potential does not appear to warrant WW
issuance.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows the cold front now lying
across coastal Georgia and into northwestern portions of the Florida
Peninsula. Ahead of this boundary, a moist low-level airmass is in
place beneath relatively steep lapse rates at mid levels, yielding
1500 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE.

The degree of CAPE has supported vigorous convection over parts of
northern Florida this morning including a couple of supercell
storms, but these storms have since weakened as they move off the
eastern coast. Meanwhile, a second area of convection -- in the
form of an organized line with embedded/small bows and weak
circulations at times -- is moving onshore near and just north of
Tampa. This band is well south of the front, and with surface flow
across central Florida being largely veered/southwesterly, any
low-level rotation within the band should remain weak/transient.=20
While mid-level flow remains around 60 kt -- which will promote
rather fast-moving storms and some attendant/local risk for strong
wind gusts, any wind -- and/or hail -- potential appears likely to
remain low overall, thus not warranting serious consideration for WW
issuance at this time.

..Goss/Grams.. 04/07/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!orEvxoXxJBVUknPdZPXmRm0EYiXTjr4ZDQsKkf1PhCPJNzbSugx6geP2za7sl4cLNJpTPj3V$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON 28698145 29318100 29118050 28508034 27898071 27108231
26938294 27358333 27788333 28178259 28428225 28698145=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 021719
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021718=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-022015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0436
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 PM CDT Sun Apr 02 2023

Areas affected...southeast Texas toward into far western Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 021718Z - 022015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms may develop over the next few hours, and
large hail will be possible with the stronger cells. A watch could
be considered later today, depending on convective evolution.

DISCUSSION...A warm front currently stretches from near Austin
toward Houston, with 70s F dewpoints to the south. Visible imagery
shows filtered heating across much of the moist sector, with
substantial deepening CU fields noted. North of the warm front
across eastern TX into LA, clear skies will lead to steepening
low-level lapse as moisture continues to surge northward into this
air mass.

Observed and model soundings indicate a warm layer close to 700 mb,
but these temperatures cool with eastward extent and into LA. For
example, currently 3-4 C difference between Austin and the TX/LA
border.

As such, the most likely area for storm development will be within
the low-level theta-e advection regime, and beneath the cooler
temperatures aloft. CAMs suggest at least isolated activity will
occur this afternoon, and ample instability, long hodographs and
sufficiently steep midlevel lapse rates will favor hail production.
Given subtle lift, it may take some time for cells to become severe.

..Jewell.. 04/02/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6gl5hO65JendLcoZ3QqI8qr9ZJFhqBxZNu7pKOQij7wmQby0PSEYBgEen4mdSq7DnKdRjBWxi= XBLcfFDLeJiePCyBhs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON 30169522 30329589 30549615 30759635 31469624 32089550
32189510 32149450 31789361 31279334 30389347 30199393
30169522=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 142247
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142246=20
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-150015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0436
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0546 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Areas affected...Eastern OH into much of PA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108...

Valid 142246Z - 150015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm wind gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated severe
hail remain possible this evening.

DISCUSSION...Despite limited low-level moisture, seasonably strong
diurnal heating beneath cold temperatures aloft has resulted in the
development of extensive deep convection from northeast OH into much
of northern PA. The strongest storms are ongoing this evening across
western PA, where somewhat more favorable low-level moisture
(coincident with a cumulus field across northeast OH) is feeding in
from the west. A 68 mph gust at KYNG was noted earlier, and a
combination of relatively strong low-level flow and a deep,
well-mixed boundary later will continue to support a threat of wind
gusts of up to 60-70 mph through early evening. Steep lapse rates
will continue to support an isolated hail threat, especially with
storms ongoing along the western end of the ongoing QLCS, where
somewhat greater instability in place and there will be less of a
tendency for storm interference. Some backbuilding into eastern OH
will be possible over the next 1-2 hours, before nocturnal cooling/stabilization begins to diminish the threat.=20

Farther east into central/eastern PA, instability is somewhat
weaker, but a threat for damaging winds will accompany the strongest
storms, especially in areas where stronger heating/mixing occurred
earlier today. A gradual weakening trend is expected later this
evening, but some threat for localized damaging winds will persist
for as long as vigorous convection (and its related outflow) can be
sustained as it moves east-southeastward. Depending on convective
trends, local extension of WW 108 may be needed, but additional
downstream watch issuance currently appears unlikely.

..Dean.. 04/14/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-DblKfmWvsW0OxF0cgLE410qRihcCD3rUOZdCGgeuNim0FLEOtLJv-qh5m03OA_UXtg90wB7f= Cd0rYwONV_tb4IFbcM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON 41318148 41117892 41547615 41527572 41217543 40807547
40297815 40257981 40308068 40468149 40618165 41318148=20


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