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ACUS11 KWNS 072054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072053=20
PAZ000-NYZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-072300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0220
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CST Mon Mar 07 2022

Areas affected...Western and central Pennsylvania...southwest New
York...and western Maryland

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 072053Z - 072300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A shallow squall line will continue to rapidly progress
eastward across Pennsylvania and adjacent areas of New York, far
northern West Virginia, and western Maryland over the next several
hours. Although it is uncertainty if/when this line will intensify,
strong winds may cause sporadic wind damage.

DISCUSSION...A narrow band of shallow, but strongly forced,
convection has been ongoing across eastern OH into western PA for
the past couple of hours. This line is primarily being driven by a
strong surface cold front and is progressing rapidly eastward at
around 40 mph. Several wind gusts between 35-45 mph have been noted
across eastern OH and far western PA with the passage of this line,
and recent velocity data from KPBZ shows winds up to 60 mph between
500-1000 feet off the surface.=20

Although the propensity for severe/damaging winds from this line has
been low so far, the downstream air mass across central PA is
gradually becoming more conditionally favorable for deeper
convection as mid-50s F dewpoints overspread the region. Latest
RAP/HRRR forecast soundings hint that MLCAPE values up to 250-500
J/kg are possible by late afternoon if surface temperatures can warm
into the low to mid 60s. While this is possible, the ongoing cloud
cover and precipitation cast considerable uncertainty into the
degree of destabilization. A watch is not anticipated at this time,
but trends will be monitored over the coming hours for deepening
convection, warming surface temperatures, and/or surface wind
observations.

..Moore/Hart.. 03/07/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qyf6pNhjFWnyAdI782FSy2RXyamlJglRfs9irCctQ7QGBF9PEyK9NuXjxIBqfCYcsq4ujkk3$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...

LAT...LON 40858060 41657993 42127926 42327823 42097703 41527644
40687640 39807687 39487753 39337822 39217920 39518019
39738063 39958096 40858060=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 020339
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020338=20
MSZ000-ARZ000-020415-

Mesoscale Discussion 0220
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0938 PM CST Wed Mar 01 2023

Areas affected...northern Mississippi

Concerning...Tornado Watch 50...

Valid 020338Z - 020415Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 50 continues.

SUMMARY...Local risk for severe weather may continue for the next 1
to 2 hours across parts of northern Mississippi. An extension of
the watch beyond the scheduled 04Z expiration may be needed.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar shows a gradually weakening supercell
crossing the Mississippi River and moving into Bolivar County
Mississippi at this time. Though some weakening has occurred, this
storm remains capable of producing severe wind/hail in the short
term. With a surface boundary lying across northern Mississippi,
and storms widespread near and north of this boundary, some risk for additional/briefly severe storms may persist for another 1 to 2
hours.

..Goss.. 03/02/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5ZbH5ZUdUdhxcsH9dwHMiiRWIFfUO2zScXqCi4dg87Cgt813Q5yMH_zseJSbsNhsxXrLaQT7F= aS-3ULF9tYxyUzX9lM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON 33969128 34858815 33848824 33769054 33969128=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 132330
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132329=20
MOZ000-KSZ000-140130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0220
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0629 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Areas affected...Northeast Kansas...Northern Missouri

Concerning...Tornado Watch 37...

Valid 132329Z - 140130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 37 continues.

SUMMARY...A potential for very large hail, wind damage and a tornado
or two is expected to develop across parts of northeast Kansas over
the next hour, extending eastward into parts of north-central
Missouri.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Topeka shows a
cluster of intensifying convection across parts Geary and Morris
Counties in Kansas. These cells are expected to grow upscale into a
rotating storm over the next hour. Any storm that can become mature
should eventually turn to the right to a more east-northeasterly
direction. RAP analysis suggests this convection is near a maximum
in instability, where MLCAPE is estimated to above 2000 J/kg. In
addition, the Topeka WSR-88D VWP has veering winds with height in
the lowest 2 km, with 0-6 km shear near 45 knots. This, along with
0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 300 m2/s2 range will
support supercell development. Very large hail and a tornado will be
possible with this storm, or with additional intense cells that
mature over the next hour or two.=20

Additional storms are expected to develop further to the east, from
near the Kansas City Metro eastward into north-central Missouri.
MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range, along with moderate
deep-layer shear, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km, evident on
forecast soundings, will also likely support supercell development.
Large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats, although a
brief tornado will be possible.

..Broyles.. 03/13/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4foI3ys31Gnd7ocjssnxamlWvTCZDbwR40bCgk-qHzdz-40_oLpOQ31v7mjOcnD-yMI6qfJtj= j0nZkI5toOy8JB5B-A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...

LAT...LON 38689488 38619597 38669644 38959677 39359665 39489620
39499490 39459354 39359322 39089310 38749329 38719364
38689488=20


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