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ACUS11 KWNS 071124
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071124=20
FLZ000-071400-

Mesoscale Discussion 0435
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0624 AM CDT Thu Apr 07 2022

Areas affected...parts of northern Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 071124Z - 071400Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms are possible in the near term, but
it is unclear whether coverage will necessitate a watch. A tornado
may occur any strong cells that develops. Hail may also occur.

DISCUSSION...A front currently extends from the northeast Gulf of
Mexico across northern FL, with scattered storms along it. Recently,
a supercell west of the Saint Augustine area, with prominent
midlevel rotation.

Low 70s F dewpoints are in place ahead of this line of storms,
resulting in MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear is
around 50 kt, with effective SRH over 200 m2/s2.

It appears a plume of higher theta-e exists ahead of the front,
evident at 850 mb on various models. Given the very moist and
uncapped air mass, only subtle lift may be needed for additional
storms. While most CAMs suggest an during the late morning, isolated
severe storms may occur before then. The area will be monitored
closely for increasing storm trends. The midlevel lapse rate over 7
C/km as well as favorably long hodograph may favor a hail threat in
addition to isolated tornadoes.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 04/07/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uxt52gYteovk79FCbc6jouqFthg9uozis4hIxLm0aZqvCgglydZM0sQvVpUt4K9COP7qcDXs$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 29338334 30188228 30438135 29508107 28728271 29028282
29098306 29338334=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 012255
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012255=20
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-020030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0435
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0555 PM CDT Sat Apr 01 2023

Areas affected...Far Eastern PA...Central/Southern NJ...Eastern
MD...DE

Concerning...Tornado Watch 109...

Valid 012255Z - 020030Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 109 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for severe thunderstorms capable of all severe
hazards, including damaging gusts and embedded tornadoes, continues.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing convective line has strengthened over the past
hour as it moves through the more buoyant air mass in place across
the northern Mid-Atlantic Coast. Modest buoyancy persists downstream
of the line across far east-central PA, NJ, eastern MD, and DE where temperatures remain in the 70s and dewpoints in the mid 50s.
Vertical shear also remains strong throughout this region, with
recent VAD profiles from DOX sampling over 70 kt of 0-6 km bulk
shear. This combination of buoyancy and deep-layer shear should
support a continued risk for strong to severe thunderstorms.
Additionally, area VAD profiles at DIX and DOX also show notable
low-level veering, which could support an embedded tornado or two
over the next hour or so.

Recent radar imagery has shown a trend toward forward propagation,
particularly towards central/southern NJ, where a corridor of
greater risk for damaging gusts may be developing.

..Mosier.. 04/01/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5NlwMjEIw42W9J6bKK7qrnCo50Wd4kSYgaaa5iMMbzsEdrRpsgc0OQVutsNiIQu1NVT_mqyBB= d1YovM9yWHmWpI71oo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

LAT...LON 40177533 40537465 40527441 40337411 39727431 39297458
38647517 38567579 38827627 39277633 40177533=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 141930
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141929=20
NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-142130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0435
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Areas affected...portions of central/eastern Ohio into Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 141929Z - 142130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop by 4-5 pm EDT.
Damaging gusts and isolated large hail will the the main hazards
with this activity as storms track south-southeast through the
evening. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely by needed in the
next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer moisture has gradually increased through
the day across the Upper Ohio Valley into northeast PA, with surface
dewpoints now in the mid 40s to low 50s F. Strong heating beneath
steep lapse rates is supporting weak destabilization. Deepening
cumulus has been noted over Lake Erie into western NY the past hour
or so, indicating increasing ascent is overspreading the region. The expectation is that this activity will continue to deepen and
potentially become more surface-based with time as it shifts
southward into OH/PA over the next few hours.=20

Initial cells will likely quickly develop into linear segments given unidirectional flow, which is also parallel to a
south/southeastward-advancing surface cold front. Given steep
low-level lapse rates and modest boundary-layer moisture, damaging
gusts are expected. Furthermore, steep midlevel lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft will support isolated large hail, especially with
any convection that remains cellular/semi-discrete. Some improvement
of low-level shear is expected with time, resulting in somewhat
enlarged low-level hodographs. This may support a tornado or two,
but marginal low-level moisture will limit the overall tornado risk.

..Leitman/Smith.. 04/14/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_FEvG0__r2UKgajsLF2ymEzw0W6HjsYZB-N3oeoBAzI-xri5Ql7H04dmcqondCpz-CXu0Eec0= GsqKLf7NqiRdoMLiwQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON 40768277 41258110 41947686 42107557 41887519 41547500
41027539 40697604 40377712 39857919 39768057 39748213
39978271 40358292 40638290 40768277=20


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