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ACUS11 KWNS 062207
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062206=20
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-070000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0430
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0506 PM CDT Wed Apr 06 2022

Areas affected...Central Alabama

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 101...

Valid 062206Z - 070000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 101
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for severe hail and damaging wind gusts
continues across central AL as a cold front pushes in from the east.

DISCUSSION...Latest convective trends over central AL continue to
show numerous attempts at robust convective initiation, but more isolated/discrete storms have struggled to mature amid weak forcing
for ascent away from the synoptic cold front and outflow boundaries
from the complex to the east. However, thunderstorm intensity along
the front has undergone slight intensification over the past hour
based on IR cloud top temperature trends. This coincides with peak
daytime heating that is supporting upwards of 2500 J/kg SBCAPE.
Thunderstorm intensity may reach a peak in the coming hours as
storms continue to develop along the front and meandering outflow
boundaries. 0-6 km hodographs from the KBMX VWP show deep-layer
shear vectors off the cold front, which will support the potential
for organized convection, including a few supercells with an
attendant hail/wind threat.

..Moore.. 04/06/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oXjgrMBE8MDXmFUYtx7c6sHBVOwl68eCHBwbhNA0fTCSsA6M3Ka6vEUuU7Cb6BZ4glHeh_KQ$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON 33278820 33728755 34358674 34288592 33998540 33378516
32578524 31948544 31648605 31628705 31878783 32268820
33048860 33278820=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 011803
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011802=20
NYZ000-PAZ000-012000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0430
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 PM CDT Sat Apr 01 2023

Areas affected...parts of central Pennsylvania into New York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 011802Z - 012000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...An arcing line of convection along the cold front is
likely to produce severe gusts over the next several hours. An
additional watch may be required soon.

DISCUSSION...A line of convection along the cold front will continue
to push east quickly across western NY and into central PA. This
line continues to produce wind gusts over 50 kt with damage reports.


Instability is currently maximized over western PA with MUCAPE
around 500 J/kg, and surface observations east of the existing watch
show quite a bit of mixing with dewpoints averaging the mid 30s F.
However, continued cooling aloft and mixing down of winds,
especially beneath the stronger reflectivities, will continue to
pose a severe wind threat downstream across NY and PA. The line will
gradually encounter better dewpoints as it crosses into eastern PA
and NY, and this may result in an even greater risk of severe
storms, to be addressed later today.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 04/01/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5UqMl7Jc-24b9-KRmqJDurKTfNSBjcZhqlkTJ-UMAIM1p9saDEfDNn3VAhOPN8_ibO5S9qM6M= pU6_Rx0pxjUJOBnRZo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON 39968002 40517970 41187950 42027963 42847931 43247662
42867598 42357576 41677583 40527654 39977755 39777881
39767968 39968002=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 121854
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121853=20
IDZ000-ORZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-122030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0430
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Areas affected...Northeast California...Eastern Oregon...far Western Idaho...and northwest Nevada

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 121853Z - 122030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong to occasionally severe storms are possible
this afternoon from northeast California into eastern Oregon and
western Idaho.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed amid weak instability
across the higher terrain in northeast California. Additional
development is apparent on visible satellite along a differential
heating boundary along the edge of the mid-level cloud deck across
portions of eastern Oregon. Instability remains quite weak at this
time with temperatures only in the 60s. However, temperatures are
expected to warm into the upper 60s to low 70s with MLCAPE around
250 to 500 J/kg by later this afternoon. This, combined with around
25 to 30 knots of effective shear, should be sufficient for some
organized storms this afternoon. Forecast soundings show very deep
mixing (to near 500mb) which will support some severe wind threat.
The hail threat will be mostly across eastern Oregon and western
Idaho where greater instability and somewhat stronger shear are
expected later this afternoon. Given the expectation for isolated
coverage of severe storms, no watch is anticipated.

..Bentley/Goss.. 04/12/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_9F-TIYE6emcLZM_kvC6-alUafcYDofl2aAwLkHurgnzDDYWeVv6_96tnkgyuoD6-BXfSjFyI= UbEwzbwQOmJkZxoYKM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MSO...BOI...LKN...PDT...REV...MFR...STO...

LAT...LON 39742155 41572219 43892133 45701760 45631615 44971581
42901648 41081785 40051915 39711995 39742155=20


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