This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1649277933-16647-5535
Content-Type: text/plain
Content-Transfer-Encoding: Quoted-printable

ACUS11 KWNS 062043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062043=20
TNZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-062145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0428
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 PM CDT Wed Apr 06 2022

Areas affected...portions of northeast Alabama into far northwest Georgia...eastern Tennessee...and extreme southeast Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 062043Z - 062145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A severe threat may develop with storms that initiate
along a cold front, posing a threat for damaging gusts. A couple
instances of severe hail/tornadoes are also possible.

DISCUSSION...Storms have struggled to develop within the warm sector environment 50-150 nautical miles ahead of the cold front despite
ample diurnal heating and the presence of adequate buoyancy.
However, storms have been developing along and immediately behind
the cold front over the past hour. An uptick in storm coverage and
intensity is possible over the next few hours as the cold front
continues to progress eastward. The 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, driven by
60-65 F surface dewpoints and steep low-level lapse rates, along
with 40+ kts of effective bulk shear suggest that damaging gusts may
be the main threat with the more organized multicells/transient
supercells that can develop. However, a few surface observations
along a CHA to CPF line show some backing of the surface winds. Any
storms that can mature amid these back winds may exhibit at least
brief bouts of strong low-level rotation, with severe hail and a
couple of tornadoes possible.

..Squitieri/Mosier.. 04/06/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sHTY-FeaNGWWnGnAAG9Y42CED54goa-9leefKHHt2JWhP8_DiOrgG-DV6S-isWozYUV1Ua_h$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON 34438741 36278538 36958480 36998447 36958373 36728312
36028301 35598350 35168407 34668452 34358525 34228613
34438741=20



------------=_1649277933-16647-5535
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit
MIME-Version: 1.0

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1649277933-16647-5535--

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS11 KWNS 011516
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011515=20
PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-011745-

Mesoscale Discussion 0428
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1015 AM CDT Sat Apr 01 2023

Areas affected...eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania and New York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 011515Z - 011745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Storms producing damaging winds appear increasingly likely
today, beginning over eastern Ohio and moving quickly into parts of
New York and Pennsylvania.

DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery shows strong heating occurring over
the region, with storms beginning to form ahead of the cold
front/vort max. Despite low dewpoints, very steep deep-layer lapse
rates, strong shear and substantial mixing of high winds aloft will
likely yield wind gusts in excess of 50 kt over much of the area. As
such, a watch is likely, and the outlook will feature a 30% severe
wind probability.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 04/01/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!94gDdbLELaj6lRbDtqPLmmhd0yEKD5VIXuDxSYySggTL5iramdR8zIN1q04WxYGgskxIch9Sm= XJzxYfxnkEdTReK8KQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON 43167875 43167804 43067780 42597752 41447750 40697783
39917843 39738036 39688131 39858173 40088179 40698195
41388197 42038161 43127903 43167875=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS11 KWNS 120415
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120415=20
VAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-120615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0428
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Areas affected...Eastern Virginia...Southern Maryland

Concerning...Tornado Watch 107...

Valid 120415Z - 120615Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 107 continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated wind damage and tornado threat will likely
continue for a few more hours across eastern Virginia. The threat
may eventually affect southern Maryland, but the need for another
watch is unclear.

DISCUSSION...An upper-level trough and an associated 80 to 100 knot
mid-level jet, will move through Carolinas early tonight. Ahead of
the trough, a 60 to 70 knot low-level jet will continue from eastern
North Carolina into eastern Virginia and southern Maryland. A line
of strong to severe thunderstorms, ongoing to the northwest of
Wakefield, Virginia, will move eastward toward the low-level jet
over the next couple of hours. RAP forecast soundings across eastern
Virginia from 05Z to 06Z have 0-6 km shear near 60 knots, and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 350 m2/s2 range. This
environment will support an isolated tornado and wind-damage threat
with low-topped supercells, however recent trends suggest that the
cloud tops have warmed, and lightning flash rates have come down.
Although the severe threat should spread northeastward into southern
Maryland early tonight, the threat should be marginal.

..Broyles.. 04/12/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_stozEwWGYm8bLAGcFnmwYAJjB09XTaWZ3MnwCzYHRs3kaSagjqFKESKPP8jWHmtQN_7rMNea= RdJ5eIthuqyPRo8ilU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

LAT...LON 38477588 38867634 38967685 38937731 38527775 37867777
37267765 37037736 36977682 37237608 37697583 38477588=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)