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ACUS11 KWNS 051530
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051530=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-051630-

Mesoscale Discussion 0407
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CDT Tue Apr 05 2022

Areas affected...Portions of southern LA and coastal MS

Concerning...Tornado Watch 94...

Valid 051530Z - 051630Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 94 continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may persist across parts of
southern Louisiana and coastal Mississippi in the short term, but
the overall severe threat should gradually decrease this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...The trailing portion of a convective line has become
increasingly oriented east-west across parts of southern LA and
coastal MS. Recent VWPs from KLIX show gradually veering low-level
winds, but strong speed shear is still present in the boundary
layer. An isolated threat for mainly strong/gusty winds could
persist beyond the scheduled 16Z expiration time of Tornado Watch
94, and a local extension in time remains possible. But, the overall
severe threat should gradually decrease across this region through
the early afternoon as better large-scale ascent associated with a
shortwave trough over the Southeast and stronger low/mid-level flow
shift eastward and away from this area.

..Gleason.. 04/05/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rANDRI1KmQP35ha_AK35huGzqCxTopoFewb_piz4HSH-fo2iyeIMCJPUGltdRBflc5DS1YN4$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 30329184 30799088 30938942 30798939 30448940 30339047
30079171 30329184=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 312059
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312059=20
IAZ000-312130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0407
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Areas affected...Southeast Iowa

Concerning...Tornado Watch 93...

Valid 312059Z - 312130Z

CORRECTED FOR AREAS AFFECTED

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 93 continues.

SUMMARY...Likely strong tornado (upper EF2 to EF3) ongoing northeast
of Ottumwa. The downstream environment will continue to support the
potential for a strong tornado.

DISCUSSION...A supercell northeast of Ottumwa has shown increasing
low-level rotation with a tornado recently confirmed. Current VROT
observations from KDMX are around 60 kts. Given the environment,
this would suggest a strong tornado (EF2-EF3) is likely ongoing. The
deepening surface low and continued backed surface winds in eastern
Iowa will continue to support a strong/intense tornado threat as
this storm continues to the north and east.

..Wendt.. 03/31/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!70dceoTGBjlcFtTxM_Y81kTXGYAXhRsp6UyVN6qJ73UfTgw76QTfr_kmgTwZaG_-sxXXufHfz= PYhVrcs0QuPqXANVC8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...

LAT...LON 41039220 41039243 41219247 41599221 41909176 41899137
41629134 41399161 41039220=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 100313
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100312=20
TXZ000-100445-

Mesoscale Discussion 0407
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1012 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024

Areas affected...Parts of south and southeast TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 96...98...

Valid 100312Z - 100445Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 96, 98
continues.

SUMMARY...An increasing severe-wind threat is expected late tonight,
along with a continued hail risk. Downstream watch issuance is
likely by midnight CDT.

DISCUSSION...A supercell cluster near/east of Austin has shown signs
of accelerating eastward late this evening, with a substantial hail
core recently noted in MRMS data near Bastrop. MLCAPE of greater
than 2000 J/kg and favorable deep-layer shear will continue to
support large hail (potentially greater than 2 inches in diameter)
with embedded supercells in the cluster. Consolidating outflows may
also pose an increasing severe-wind threat as this cluster moves
eastward late tonight.=20

Farther southwest, deep convection has recently erupted across
southern portions of the Hill Country into western parts of deep
south TX, where a cold front has intercepted returning low-level
moisture. Instability and deep-layer shear are favorable for
supercells in this region as well, and a threat for large to very
large hail will accompany these storms as they move eastward. Most
recent CAM guidance suggests eventual upscale growth in this region,
which will then move quickly east-northeastward toward the TX Gulf
Coast with time, accompanied by a threat for severe wind gusts
potentially exceeding 75 mph. Some tornado threat could also
eventually evolve near the TX Coast overnight, as the upscale
growing storm cluster encounters deeper moisture and stronger
low-level flow/shear.=20

With a substantial severe threat expected to eventually spread
toward the TX Gulf Coast, downstream watch issuance is likely by
midnight CDT.

..Dean/Hart.. 04/10/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-xeXKHSLIVwsQjpSKHRSmaL3tcSK5Vq9adOVaJ-6BTYxPrd0QNV5-iBt_Wj1VldMYQkDhFbEy= srjFoUrQ0DGp5iiyBA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 28050036 29709916 30349751 31209714 31319586 31049522
30479511 30159517 29749541 28869659 27819887 27519970
28050036=20


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