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ACUS11 KWNS 051127
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051127=20
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-051400-

Mesoscale Discussion 0404
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0627 AM CDT Tue Apr 05 2022

Areas affected...southern Mississippi into southern Alabama and the
western Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 051127Z - 051400Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A tornado risk may develop later this morning from
southern Mississippi into Alabama and parts of the Florida
Panhandle.

DISCUSSION...A warm front continues to push rapidly north, with
upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints now common. Stronger elevated
cells producing hail have been evident at times, but mostly
isolated.

Effective SRH of 300-400 m2/s2 is common across the warm sector,
with higher values near the warm front. The air mass is uncapped,
although low-level lapse rates remain poor. However, any cells ahead
of the advancing squall line over central MS may acquire rotation.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 04/05/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tZrsUR_9VBRJlH-2rXMBOVdKKBUZ49LNxiTj1r09kbADR2GojNMT1jw-YHBLb1JJDKkcNsSF$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 30198885 30218937 30868949 31348943 31698894 32418828
32518763 32348682 31898618 30618632 30368644 30328682
30198804 30198885=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 312042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312042=20
ALZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-312215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0404
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Areas affected...AR into parts of the MS/TN Valleys

Concerning...Tornado Watch 94...

Valid 312042Z - 312215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 94 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for tornadic supercells will continue into the
early evening, with a continued risk of strong tornadoes. Downstream
watch issuance may be needed prior to 00Z.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of supercells is ongoing at 2030 UTC near and
east of Little Rock, with the lead supercell having earlier produced
an apparent strong tornado near/north of Little Rock. This supercell
cluster will continue to move east-northeastward toward the MS
River, with additional supercell development expected with
convection now developing across western AR. The lead supercell
cluster will be moving through the strongest low-level shear
environment into early evening, with the low-level jet expected to
become maximized near the MS Valley region. Strong tornadoes will
remain possible with this cluster into eastern AR, western TN, and
northwest MS.=20

Farther west, some veering of low-level flow has been noted, but
moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg) and very strong
deep-layer shear (effective shear of 70+ kt) will continue to be
very favorable for discrete supercells. All severe hazards will
remain possible with any supercells that develop across western AR
and move east-northeastward into early evening, with low-level
flow/shear remaining sufficient to support a strong tornado threat
with any longer-lived supercells.=20

The severe thunderstorm threat will begin to spread east of WW 94 by
early evening, and downstream watch issuance will likely be needed
prior to 00Z.

..Dean/Hart.. 03/31/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!94rBN6Hxr5WuxzIj0T3L1hzccIC6nac0ZAHUd3wcwiJJxK1VAe37qefIfDysh3EhX-oElXExE= m4YZ159dyjnnf3DDWo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON 34569438 35329413 35929326 36239151 36888779 34808776
34188874 33928957 33749092 33609230 33539315 33519409
33939439 34569438=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 100050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100049=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-100215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0404
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024

Areas affected...central Mississippi

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 97...

Valid 100049Z - 100215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 97
continues.

SUMMARY...A bowing line of storms will continue to pose a severe
wind threat as it moves across central Mississippi this evening.

DISCUSSION...A mature bowing line segment is moving across central
Mississippi this evening. Reports have been sparse, but radar
representation showing a rear-inflow jet and strong inbound
velocities at the apex of the bow would suggest a corridor of
potentially severe wind gusts. Despite the well-organized appearance
of this bow presently, the eastern extent of watch 97 may be
sufficient as the airmass ahead of this bow will become increasingly
stable as it moves east.

..Bentley/Hart.. 04/10/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_7nzfqBWmwS6hPRQQa1zpPqrk1kM9ouUURTR15n81ooQ7pRJn_aOBVgH-jrPBUOYmoCXdkwiB= Ue0T0BpOKfnLT6TszM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...

LAT...LON 32089143 32209135 32379118 32639109 32829123 32919054
32848981 32558970 32118971 32059023 32009070 31979114
32019144 32089143=20


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