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ACUS11 KWNS 050218
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050218=20
TXZ000-050415-

Mesoscale Discussion 0400
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0918 PM CDT Mon Apr 04 2022

Areas affected...North-Central TX

Concerning...Tornado Watch 92...

Valid 050218Z - 050415Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 92 continues.

SUMMARY...Tornado threat continues across north-central Texas.

DISCUSSION...Weak surface low appears to be evolving just southwest
of the Metroplex with an attendant warm front extending downstream
just south of the Red River into southwest AR. Warm advection, and
higher SRH values will remain concentrated along this corridor as
mid 60s surface dew points advance north of I-20 into this region. A
complex MCS has evolved north of the Metroplex this evening with
embedded supercell over northern Collin County. While some large
hail has been noted with the stronger cores, and continues to be a
threat, the risk for tornadoes may actually increase over the next
few hours, especially with more discrete updrafts, as better
moisture advances into the stronger low-level shear.

..Darrow.. 04/05/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!v0GloVZvsN8Xljq4g4dYcsY2lXs1AVAy4q9PCtm8HNjjrgF5bmLDVE-sfnK2o2PzqyZXEjas$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...

LAT...LON 33579660 33629531 32629556 32859730 33579660=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 311907
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311907=20
INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-312030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0400
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Areas affected...Northern IL...northwestern IN...and southern WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 311907Z - 312030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Upstream supercells will exit the eastern edge of Tornado
Watch 93 within the next 90 minutes. A downstream tornado watch may
be needed within the hour.

DISCUSSION...As of 1905 UTC, regional radar imagery showed a cluster
of supercells ongoing from eastern IA and northwestern IL. The
downstream airmass over northern IL and southern WI is rapidly
destabilizing ahead of the storms. SPC mesoanalysis shows MLCAPE
around 500-1000 J/kg is developing as surface dewpoints approach 60
F. Very strong low-level shear from the DVN VAD/VWP (200-300 0-1km
SRH) will shift eastward favoring a supercell mode. HRRR model
guidance shows multiple supercells moving into portions of northern
IL, southern WI, and eventually northwest IN. The storm mode and
favorable environment suggests a risk for all hazards. A strong/long
track tornado will also be possible with the more dominate
supercells. A new Tornado Watch may be needed shortly.

..Lyons/Hart.. 03/31/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_rVof_VA-ixhSRvx6Aap8UsQvTCoDa96ilMGM9aL5V6XJ37TQZn-z5W8nhpiGB7nnSNXz0_FL= TUPEAjl0iuAQfh22WU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...

LAT...LON 42829038 43068898 42898785 42078734 41228703 40278728
40238800 40168864 40248912 40448961 40919033 42489056
42829038=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 092056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092055=20
TXZ000-092230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0400
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024

Areas affected...portions of central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 092055Z - 092230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing behind an initial round of
storms, with large hail and damaging gusts the main threat. A couple
instances of 2+ inch hail and perhaps a tornado are also possible. A
new WW issuance will likely be needed to address the impending
severe threat.

DISCUSSION...In the wake of earlier storms, some airmass
modification is underway along the intersection of the dryline and
multiple outflow boundaries. Continued surface heating and greater
ascent from an approaching mid-level trough should encourage the
initiation of strong to severe storms along the aforementioned
boundaries this afternoon into the evening hours. Long, straight
hodographs suggest splitting supercells will likely be the
predominant storm mode, with large hail and damaging gusts the main
threats. A few instances of 2+ inch hail are also possible wherever
storms can interact with a relatively more pristine airmass, where
mid-level lapse rates remain steep. If a supercell can traverse one
of the outflow boundaries for an appreciable period of time, a
tornado cannot be ruled out, though the tornado threat should be
limited by a lack of stronger low-level shear.

Nonetheless, at least a few robust storms may develop over portions
of central TX this afternoon into evening, and a WW issuance may be
needed in the next few hours.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 04/09/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_8teLUjqVy1lc8hz3z63int8WqXe5lPMOcLnyy8SO5v2TsAdhh6I9PDeg0NjD4Xg8bWuxadp-= BBPXomuDXtVji1Gm8M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 31149965 31079829 30759712 30059710 29679775 29679863
29799942 30019990 30559981 31149965=20


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