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ACUS11 KWNS 041655
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041654=20
FLZ000-041930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0392
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 AM CDT Mon Apr 04 2022

Areas affected...portions of the southern Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 041654Z - 041930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue
developing northward along a diffuse baroclinic zone. Isolated large
hail and a couple of damaging gusts are the main threats. A WW
issuance is unlikely given the isolated threat for severe.

DISCUSSION...Transient multicellular thunderstorm clusters have
developed across the far southern Florida Peninsula along the
intersection of sea-breeze boundaries, near a baroclinic zone. KAMX
radar shows convective outflow boundaries propagating northward
towards the baroclinic zone, with lower 80s F surface temperatures
and 70+ F surface dewpoints. As such, new convective cells are
expected to pulse along the leading edge of the convective cold
pools through the afternoon. The 12Z MFL observed sounding showed
the presence of 8 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates, with 0-3 km lapse
rates over 7 C/km when modifying the sounding to represent recent
METAR surface observations. Isolated severe hail may occur with the
more robust, sustained updrafts given the presence of the steep
mid-level lapse rates. Low-level lapse rates should also continue to
steepen through the afternoon and support the potential for a couple
of strong gusts as well. Given the sparse nature of the severe
threat, a WW issuance is not currently anticipated.

..Squitieri/Mosier.. 04/04/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!p-VxBG5-IpX6sd1frTkb3m-4lLtKMNjty56ymbg9NG-Z8Jr8YEXcJec6dobz8Vx5S9VOxyAC$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON 25448107 26538211 27438257 27858236 27958170 27818093
27568041 26918008 26318005 25808015 25478025 25448107=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 311547
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311547=20
MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-311645-

Mesoscale Discussion 0392
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1047 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Areas affected...portions of eastern Arkansas...southwestern
Tennessee...and northern Mississippi

Concerning...Outlook upgrade=20

Valid 311547Z - 311645Z

SUMMARY...Portions of the Moderate Risk area over eastern AR,
southwestern TN, and northern MS will be upgraded to a categorical
High Risk in the 1630 UTC Convective outlook.

DISCUSSION...An upgrade to a tornado-driven High Risk (30%
probability) is expected for the 1630 UTC outlook. Environmental
conditions are quickly becoming favorable to support the potential
for numerous strong to potentially violent and long-track tornadoes
across portions of eastern AR, southwestern TN, and northern MS.
Please see the forthcoming Day 1 outlook update for more
information.

..Lyons/Smith.. 03/31/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8_KuJT9emx6lVd__Ttk3esehR_DVuzdIlh-fEvpjuVlTg0_hURnFfQqtLDvbNR_Tpr5bkM8VS= gk4ApRFm7Op850phwM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON 34589185 35279138 35478914 35208857 34628862 34148902
33759181 33999209 34589185=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 090757
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090757=20
TXZ000-090930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0392
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024

Areas affected...North-Central into Northeast TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 93...

Valid 090757Z - 090930Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 93
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts will remain possible for the next
few hours from north-central Texas into northeast Texas.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a meso-low coincident
with the ongoing thunderstorm over northeast portions of the
Metroplex. An outflow-augmented cold front extends southwestward
from this low into southwest TX. A warm front also extends eastward
from this low into northeast TX. Airmass to the east of the ongoing thunderstorm is characterized by low-level stability beneath steep
mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer vertical shear. This
environment supports the persistence of the ongoing storms as they
continue eastward, likely trending more elevated with time. Even so, occasionally strong to severe downdrafts could still reach the
surface over the next hour or two, particularly as this storm
interacts with the warm front (as evidenced by a recent gust of 53
kt at KDFW).

Farther south and west, the airmass is not as hostile to
surface-based storms and additional development along the southeastward-progressing front/outflow is possible. However, the
notably dry mid-levels will likely act as a deterrent for sustained
updrafts, limiting the likelihood for mature updrafts and keeping
the overall severe potential low.

..Mosier.. 04/09/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5FbKQR46qGEZRwcFkqAcrNBvZNCeYS4WDXMrtNTE4vNuKTJtPYOHTS5C0CS9mwOJwhfx3uznm= VPMzfM6WDccVCB1A5E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...

LAT...LON 33129718 33689628 33749568 33329513 32849509 32019733
32009830 32559830 33129718=20


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