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ACUS11 KWNS 032220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032219=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-032345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0391
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0519 PM CDT Sun Apr 03 2022

Areas affected...Northwest TX...Southwestern OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 032219Z - 032345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this
evening. Gusty winds and hail are the expected threats. Some
consideration is being given for a severe thunderstorm watch across
portions of northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma.

DISCUSSION...Strong boundary-layer heating has contributed to a
plume of steep surface-3km lapse rates (approaching dry adiabatic)
across the TX South Plains, extending into southwestern OK. Forecast
soundings suggest convective temperatures have been breached across
this region and latest visible satellite imagery supports this with
an expanding cu field along the dryline from west of ABI-southwest
of Vernon. Additionally, boundary-layer cu are also forming along
the cold front over Harmon County in southwest OK. While it's not
real obvious, a weak mid-level disturbance may be approaching the TX
Panhandle and this feature should assist convection that evolves
immediately ahead of a weak surface low near CDS, along the front. Thermodynamic profiles suggest convection that evolves over the next
few hours will be high based, but adequately sheared for updraft
longevity. After sunset, sustained LLJ across west TX into eastern
OK should aid eastward propagation with activity becoming elevated
as the boundary layer cools. Gusty winds appear possible with this
high-based convection along with some hail threat.

..Darrow/Thompson.. 04/03/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qFZONZCD46C2hXvwx2ea0tLxd0QqoNFKLHJhbZk_dkFAuMI7pDXnMGuf4e_g-IhP5u3egRzS$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 33179994 34119965 34919955 35559884 35179792 33809840
33009907 33179994=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 311544
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311544=20
TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-311745-

Mesoscale Discussion 0391
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1044 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Areas affected...ArkLaTex into parts of the Mid South

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 311544Z - 311745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for tornadic supercells will increase this
afternoon. PDS Tornado Watch issuance is eventually expected for
parts of the region.

DISCUSSION...Weak elevated convection has been ongoing across parts
of AR this morning, within a plume of rich low-level moisture and
along the periphery of a lead shortwave moving across eastern
portions of the central Plains. Additional convective development
has been noted recently into southeast OK and northeast TX.
Widespread cloudiness will tend to limit diurnal heating to some
extent, but gradual warming amid increasingly rich low-level
moisture will support MLCAPE increasing into the 1000-2000 J/kg
range and weakening MLCINH with time.=20

Area VWPs already depict very favorable wind profiles, with strong
low-level (0-1 km SRH of 200-400 m2/s2) and deep-layer shear
(effective shear of 60+ kt) expected to persist through the day.
Tornadic supercells are expected to eventually evolve across the
region this afternoon, with a few longer-lived supercells capable of
producing strong/intense tornadoes possible, especially across AR
toward the MS Valley. Onset timing of the greater threat remains
somewhat uncertain, but one or more Tornado Watches will be required
by early afternoon, with PDS Tornado Watch issuance expected across
parts of AR toward the MS Valley.

..Dean/Hart.. 03/31/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6GI_E7n2KoEXiaqWXoVLtTtUcENB01m-0F1f0lt2MDckiRZaEyfSZiIlJhKqeeZuH3cwNiuC3= j5397wIHulBv99UlQg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

LAT...LON 33679230 32799416 32839543 33519562 35459404 36179335
36339183 36309018 36208987 35848969 34908958 34059127
33689222 33679230=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 090449
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090449=20
TXZ000-090615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0391
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024

Areas affected...Parts of north TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 93...

Valid 090449Z - 090615Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 93
continues.

SUMMARY...Very large hail (golfball to baseball size) remains
possible with an ongoing supercell cluster. A brief tornado cannot
be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...Several supercells are ongoing at 0445 UTC to the
west-northwest of the Metroplex, with multiple cells having produced
golfball or larger sized hail (up to 3 inches in diameter) within
the last hour. While some cell interactions/mergers have been noted
with the northernmost cells, the two right-moving supercells ongoing
west of Mineral Wells and north of Fort Worth may be able to move east-northeastward with minimal interference in the short term.=20

MLCAPE of around 2000 J/kg and effective shear of 45-55 kt will
continue to support supercell potential into the early overnight
hours, with very large hail (potentially 2-3 inches in diameter with
the strongest cells) as the primary threat, along with some risk for
localized severe gusts. Also, low-level flow has substantially
increased over the last 1-2 hours on the KFWS VWP, with 0-1 km SRH
increasing above 150 m2/s2. This could support a brief tornado
threat with the strongest right-moving cells, though relatively cool near-surface conditions may mitigate this threat to some extent.

..Dean.. 04/09/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-2AT7wkPvBsmJ4oChTC2FHHYXHmfba4ZNzk-2Cy-RLaHpv-0GpKTwjYH89AQEV2w6YlrobrT6= aDSzOWjfZK0YhN8_oI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 33359899 33639814 33679694 33399637 33109626 32919638
32709657 32609701 32549747 32529802 32539848 32579908
32679931 32979941 33099945 33359899=20


=3D =3D =3D
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