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ACUS11 KWNS 031927
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031927=20
FLZ000-032130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0389
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Sun Apr 03 2022

Areas affected...Southern Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 031927Z - 032130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated strong thunderstorm or two appears
increasingly possible by 4-5 PM EDT, perhaps near downtown Miami,
but mostly to its southwest and south. These may pose at least some
risk for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts.

DISCUSSION...Attempts at deep convective development have been
ongoing, aided by destabilization, driven by insolation, of a
lingering seasonably moist boundary layer across the far southern
Florida Peninsula. This is occurring just ahead of a weak cold
front approaching the Miami area. In the wake of a weakening
outflow boundary which has advanced into the upper Keys, the sea
breeze is advancing inland of coastal areas, but the initiation of thunderstorms has been suppressed, likely due to inhibition
associated with relatively warm/dry layers in the lower/mid
troposphere (evident in the 12Z sounding from Miami).

Mid/upper forcing for ascent has been generally weak, but the Rapid
Refresh suggests that a 30-40 kt convectively generated or enhanced
jet streak in the 700-500 mb layer may nose eastward across the
region during the next few hours. It is possible that this could
contribute to the development of a few sustained thunderstorms as destabilization continues.

Mixed-layer CAPE already appears on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg, in
the presence of strong deep-layer beneath a continuing strong
subtropical jet. Although flow from the surface through around 850
mb will remain rather weak, with generally linear hodographs, one or
two supercell structures may evolve, with seasonably cool mid-level temperatures contributing to a risk for severe hail and locally
strong surface gusts.

..Kerr/Grams.. 04/03/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!voQgZH-pXlhO4NgU0l_UBcs0YkFsLENehAWxuDOcEnRgbAkDnuk6LkwhVFh42zVOJr_1PTo0$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

LAT...LON 25778018 25268012 25138039 25268075 25778018=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 311407
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311406=20
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-312000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0389
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0906 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Areas affected...portions of South Dakota into western Minnesota

Concerning...Blizzard=20

Valid 311406Z - 312000Z

SUMMARY...To the north of a rapidly deepening surface cyclone,
widespread heavy snow and blizzard conditions are expected over
portions of SD and MN. heavy snow rates of 1-2 in/hr and widespread
low visibility from blowing snow are expected.

DISCUSSION...As of 1400 UTC, morning WV imagery showed a
well-developed upper low ejecting out of the central Rockies and
into the Plains. At the surface, an associated cyclone over eastern
NE and western IA is expected to rapidly deepen as strong height
falls and dynamic lift from the upper low pass overhead. Already
observed developing over portions of western NE and SD by regional
radar imagery, a broad precipitation shield should expand in
coverage and intensity through the next several hours in response to
the strong dynamic lift and mid-level warm advection. RAP soundings
across central and eastern SD are supportive of widespread heavy
snow with rates of 1-2 in/hr possible within banded structures.
Farther northeast strong mid-level warm advection has left a
resulting warm nose as observed by the 12z MPX sounding. This may
favor some mixed-phase precip and ice through the first part of the
afternoon. Snow should gradually expand northeastward into portions
of western MN tonight as the maximum in dynamic lift shifts with the
trough, and the lower temperature profile cools below freezing.=20

Concurrent with the risk for heavy snow, the surface low is expected
to rapidly deepen below 990 mb over IA and southern MN as it tracks
slowly northeastward through the day. Surface pressure falls on the
order of 1-2 mb per hour will support very strong gradient winds
along the backside of the surface low. 35-45 mph winds should
develop supporting widespread Blizzard conditions. Blowing snow and
poor visibility should first develop over central SD before slowly
expanding northeastward into eastern SD and MN later this evening.
Poor travel and dangerous winter weather conditions are most likely
over eastern SD this afternoon into the evening.

..Lyons.. 03/31/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-1RE12ZR1lM1n4Idrz_T0_Q2uzx5aSl3dEyBBi6sFlQ04So2wijtihrXRaLU59Ucqcp9NpZ-A= 8kBwveQSHqpAID63Q0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...UNR...

LAT...LON 45959735 45919529 45709443 45439408 45119395 44749411
44379457 43979557 43619785 43189978 43060101 43080186
43310275 43600318 43870333 44290312 44740254 45280104
45609962 45959735=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 090202
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090202=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-090330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0389
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0902 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024

Areas affected...portions of northwest Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 91...

Valid 090202Z - 090330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 91
continues.

SUMMARY...A bowing line of storms will pose an increased severe
wind/hail threat for the next 2 hours.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of supercells has evolved into a bowing line
of storms in Stonewall/Haskell/Jones counties. This bowing segment
should persist east as it moves into better low-level moisture and
nearly 70 knots of effective shear (per DYX VWP). The latest WoFs
seems to have a decent handle on the evolution of the cluster
through 02Z. However, there is considerable spread in the storm mode
from here forward with around half of the members showing one or
more supercells emerging out of this bow with other members showing
upscale growth into a larger linear segment. Regardless of the exact
storm mode and evolution, consensus does show the threat persisting
east of watch 91 and a downstream watch will likely be needed.

..Bentley/Hart.. 04/09/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-aPGOBB8H90mZGvVQz2nsYJcv9yQRyraIlNTLGtLQGgsHX3kArzGONoZQF0c7o9QUgiwecR7j= t40BIVZPh692s3rm3s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON 33250041 33569989 33739951 34019775 33989640 33799591
33419584 33089592 32999686 32799786 32749876 32669941
32610018 32670047 32800049 33250041=20


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