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ACUS11 KWNS 021726
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021725=20
FLZ000-021900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0387
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Sat Apr 02 2022

Areas affected...East central Florida

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 90...

Valid 021725Z - 021900Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 90
continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for hail and potentially damaging wind gusts may
increase with intensifying storms across and northeast of Orlando
into the Space Coast by around 3-4 PM EDT.

DISCUSSION...Strong deep-layer shear and entrainment of dry
mid-level air appear to have suppressed initial attempts at deep
convective development across interior central Florida. However, a
cluster of thunderstorms which has spread inland across coastal
areas near Cross City has intensified, and MRMS reflectivity loops
suggest that a mesoscale convective vortex may be evolving across
and east of the Gainesville vicinity, with strengthening rear inflow
and downdrafts to it south. With continuing inflow of seasonably
moist air characterized by mixed-layer air in excess of 2000 J/kg,
further intensification of convection appears possible along
southeastward surging outflow, across and north-northeast of Greater
Orlando into the Space Coast through 18-20Z. This may be
accompanied by hail and increasingly widespread strong wind gusts.

..Kerr.. 04/02/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vjsWuQqb_IPwrgpkT1XT0c4JjymqbgivCFvhOC3eeWnqqQ3IJBypoXNP7IBxp-Bt1zeXG6Iq$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON 29428109 29028062 28278101 28308166 28808147 29248131
29428109=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 310304
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310304=20
MIZ000-WIZ000-310330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0387
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1004 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023

Areas affected...Northern Wisconsin and the Upper Michigan Peninsula

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation=20

Valid 310304Z - 310330Z

SUMMARY...Mixed precipitation and snowfall will increase in coverage
and intensity through early Friday. Occasional snowfall rates up to=20
1" per hour are possible. Freezing rain accumulations up to 0.10"
are possible within the highlighted sub-region.

DISCUSSION...A band of moderate to heavy precipitation has been
ongoing this evening across central Wisconsin. Temperatures are
lingering around freezing with occasional change overs to unknown
and mixed precipitation occurring with wet-bulbing in heavier
showers just north and east of Green Bay. This line will continue to
shift northward across northern Wisconsin and the Upper Michigan
Peninsula through early Friday morning.=20

Across northern Wisconsin, temperatures are hovering near freezing
with reports of light snow on and off through the evening. As the
heavier precipitation shifts northward with ongoing warm air
advection, isentropic lift, and modest mid-level lapse rates, expect
snowfall rates to increase with occasional rates around 1"/hr. RAP
sounding analysis and HREF guidance suggest that precipitation will
largely remain snow through midnight. A transition to mixed
precipitation thereafter with potential for accumulating freezing
rain as warmer air is advected in around 850 mb. Ice accumulations
around 0.10" per hour will be possible across a narrow corridor.
Light freezing rain will be possible across the Upper Michigan
Peninsula early Friday morning, however accumulations should remain
light.

..Thornton/Edwards.. 03/31/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-Q75MKFhCn_9tCiMprK7qR8v41XwcYXjvk1ykITgfBmEeshPqQfw1fkdSVJ6enQoZVcloXTj0= kp0xbl_bs3klcZcf6I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON 46899032 46818979 46678917 46598873 46418805 46178723
46028685 45668674 45278699 44798765 44798799 45068951
45199015 45399074 45829161 46379213 46829180 46979081
46899032=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 082256
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082255=20
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-090030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0387
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0555 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024

Areas affected...Parts of central/northeast TX into extreme
northwest LA/southwest AR

Concerning...Tornado Watch 90...

Valid 082255Z - 090030Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 90 continues.

SUMMARY...The short-term severe threat remains uncertain, but a
couple stronger supercells and/or storm clusters could evolve with
time this evening, with all severe hazards possible.

DISCUSSION...Convection has continued to spread northward from
central into northeast TX, along the northern periphery of deeper
returning low-level moisture. Despite MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg
and favorable deep-layer shear, convection has struggled to remain
organized thus far, possibly due to a lack of stronger low-level
flow and the impacts of northward-moving outflow. However, some
short-term threat for hail and gusty winds may move north of WW 90
early this evening.=20

As the low-level jet strengthens a little later this evening,
ongoing convection may become more organized, with potential for a
stronger supercell or two and/or an upscale growing cluster to
develop with time. Should this occur, some increase in the tornado
threat would be possible, in addition to an ongoing threat for hail
and localized damaging gusts.=20

Depending on short-term convective trends, WW 90 may need to be
expanded to the north and west to cover the severe threat.
Otherwise, there is some potential for additional watch issuance
across parts of central/northeast TX later this evening, depending
on the evolution of both ongoing convection and potential storm
development to the west.

..Dean/Hart.. 04/08/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-ae-fSeUdRaIE96u4UdkZH9uklbbcSVDR6yCG3luYlvyJwxnu4lu5zWo2kDKxEVmaDp_P00nT= pM9PAhlxtuHZ5iWPvQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON 30779765 32139697 33039492 33359377 32449346 31629486
30519749 30779765=20


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