• COVID-19 demographics

    From Jeff Thiele@1:387/26 to All on Wednesday, October 19, 2022 22:10:22
    From the Washington Post (https://tinyurl.com/bde4c2vw):

    [Paragraphs containing facts are interspersed with personal stories in the article, which is why there are so many ellipses. Also, the statistics do not compare raw numbers of demographic groups, but compare incidents per 100,000 members of each demographic group.]

    "The imbalance in death rates among the nation's racial and ethnic groups
    has been a defining part of the pandemic since the start. To see the pattern, The Washington Post analyzed every death during more than two years of the pandemic. Early in the crisis, the differing covid threat was evident in
    places such as Memphis and Fayette County. Deaths were concentrated in dense urban areas, where Black people died at several times the rate of White
    people.
    [...]
    "The nature of the virus makes the elderly and people with underlying health conditions -- including hypertension, diabetes and obesity, all of which
    beset Black people at higher rates and earlier in life than White people -- particularly vulnerable to severe illness and death."
    [...]
    "Over time, the gap in deaths widened and narrowed but never disappeared -- until mid-October 2021, when the nation's pattern of covid mortality changed, with the rate of death among White Americans sometimes eclipsing other
    groups."
    [...]
    "After delta's peak in September 2021, the racial differences in covid
    deaths started eroding. The Post analysis found that Black deaths declined, while White deaths never eased, increasing slowly but steadily, until the mortality gap flipped. From the end of October through the end of December, White people died at a higher rate than Black people did, The Post found." [...]
    "That remained true except for a stretch in winter 2021-2022, when the
    omicron variant rampaged. The Black death rate jumped above White people's
    when the spike in cases and deaths overwhelmed providers in the Northeast, resulting in a bottleneck of testing and treatment."

    "When the surge subsided, the Black death rate once again dropped below the White rate."
    [...]
    "The easy explanation is that it reflects the choices of Republicans not to be vaccinated, but the reasons go deeper."
    [...]
    "Resilience gave way to fatigue. Holes left by rural hospital closures deepened. Medical mistrust and misinformation raged. Skeptics touted debunked alternatives over proven treatments and prevention. Mask use became a victim
    of social stigma."

    "Many Republicans decided they would rather roll the dice with their health than follow public health guidance -- even when provided by President Donald Trump, who was booed after saying he had been vaccinated and boosted."

    Jeff.

    --- Mystic BBS v1.12 A46 2020/08/26 (Raspberry Pi/32)
    * Origin: Cold War Computing BBS (1:387/26)
  • From Mike Powell@1:2320/105 to JEFF THIELE on Thursday, October 20, 2022 16:36:00
    [Paragraphs containing facts are interspersed with personal stories in the article, which is why there are so many ellipses. Also, the statistics do not compare raw numbers of demographic groups, but compare incidents per 100,000 members of each demographic group.]

    "The easy explanation is that it reflects the choices of Republicans not to be
    vaccinated, but the reasons go deeper."
    [...]
    "Resilience gave way to fatigue. Holes left by rural hospital closures deepened. Medical mistrust and misinformation raged. Skeptics touted debunked alternatives over proven treatments and prevention. Mask use became a victim of social stigma."

    "Many Republicans decided they would rather roll the dice with their health than follow public health guidance -- even when provided by President Donald Trump, who was booed after saying he had been vaccinated and boosted."

    So you removed the "personal stories" but then left in the opinion parts?
    The only parts that are not opinion are the first two sentences of the second paragraph I quoted above. The rest assumes that people who did what they
    were told and got the shots didn't die. It also assumes that there was no misinformation before that time, and assumes that people who were set
    against getting the shot would have waited until Autumn, 2021, to finally decide not to get it.

    It is probably easily explained by the first sentence. By Autumn 2021,
    most people were no longer following masking or distancing guidelines.
    Some places were also forcing their workforce back into the office by then. Something it doesn't mention (or that you left out), is that
    by that point, the gaps between the continued effectiveness of the three
    shot flavors (Moderna, Pfizer, and J&J) were growing.

    In Autumn, 2021, when I went to get my booster, the medical professional
    who administered it was suggesting that people who got J&J probably needed
    to get two boosters (of a different flavor), and my own doctor told me that patients who got Moderna orignally were doing much better at not getting sick than patients who got one of the other two.


    * SLMR 2.1a * I got lost in thought, it was a very unfamiliar territory
    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
  • From Jeff Thiele@1:387/26 to Mike Powell on Thursday, October 20, 2022 16:29:45
    On 20 Oct 2022, Mike Powell said the following...
    So you removed the "personal stories" but then left in the opinion parts?

    I removed the anecdotal parts and left the parts dealing with facts about demographics.

    The only parts that are not opinion are the first two sentences of the second paragraph I quoted above.

    You left a lot of facts unquoted.

    The rest assumes that people who did
    what they were told and got the shots didn't die.

    No, it doesn't. It never says that. It says that "people who did what they
    were told" reduced the death rate of their demographic. Less of them died, which is not the same as saying that none of them died.

    It also assumes that
    there was no misinformation before that time,

    No, it doesn't. If you read the article, it says that black people were also susceptible to misinformation but due to the massive impact of COVID-19 on their communities, they came to the conclusion faster than white people that the vaccines and other guidelines were in their best interest and that of
    their communities.

    and assumes that people
    who were set against getting the shot would have waited until Autumn, 2021, to finally decide not to get it.

    No, it doesn't. It tracks the death rates among the two demographics over
    time.

    It is probably easily explained by the first sentence. By Autumn 2021, most people were no longer following masking or distancing guidelines.

    The catch is in the demographics of that "most."

    Some places were also forcing their workforce back into the office by then.

    And some of those employees were vaccinated while others weren't.

    Something it doesn't mention (or that you left out), is that
    by that point, the gaps between the continued effectiveness of the three shot flavors (Moderna, Pfizer, and J&J) were growing.

    The gaps between the vaccines is not nearly as large as the gap between being vaccinated and not being vaccinated.

    In Autumn, 2021, when I went to get my booster, the medical professional who administered it was suggesting that people who got J&J probably
    needed to get two boosters (of a different flavor), and my own doctor
    told me that patients who got Moderna orignally were doing much better
    at not getting sick than patients who got one of the other two.

    The people who got one of the other two were doing much better than those who got none at all.

    Jeff.

    --- Mystic BBS v1.12 A46 2020/08/26 (Raspberry Pi/32)
    * Origin: Cold War Computing BBS (1:387/26)
  • From Jeff Thiele@1:387/26 to Mike Powell on Friday, October 21, 2022 18:49:49
    On 21 Oct 2022, Mike Powell said the following...
    You left a lot of facts unquoted.
    The only parts out of what I quoted that were not opinion were the first two sentences.

    Not so. There were many contributing factors.

    and assumes that people
    who were set against getting the shot would have waited until Autum 2021, to finally decide not to get it.
    No, it doesn't. It tracks the death rates among the two demographics ove time.
    Yes it does. Otherwise, white republicans would have always been the leading demographic, if the "white republicans" conclusion was the
    correct one.

    No, they wouldn't have, especially pre-vaccine. There's no "waiting until Autumn 2021 to finally decide not to get [the vaccine]." Every single day
    that the vaccine was available and they didn't get vaccinated was a day they decided not to get vaccinated. Meanwhile, everyone else also had varying numbers of days that they decided not to get vaccinated, but those numbers of days were obviously less than the number of days that the people dead-set against getting vaccinated decided not to get vaccinated. And so, the relationship between the effects of the virus on the two demographics changed over time, with the death rate among the unvaccinated staying fairly steady
    and the death rate among the vaccinated dropping. Some white people were vaccinated, and some black people were unvaccinated, but the discrepancy in
    the vaccinated/unvaccinated ratio in each demographic was enough to cause the white death rate to overtake the black death rate.

    It is probably easily explained by the first sentence. By Autumn 2 most people were no longer following masking or distancing guidelin
    The catch is in the demographics of that "most."
    As whites still make up the majority of the country, most of them not wearing masks would likely be white. The only people who kept wearing them in my office (besides me and one other person -- both white) were
    not black or white. They were Indian and usually female.

    That's a pretty small sample size. It doesn't matter that white people make
    up the majority of the country because the death rates were not based on raw numbers,but on deaths per 100,000 individuals in each demographic. Your statement also fails to compensate for vaccination status.

    Some places were also forcing their workforce back into the office then.
    And some of those employees were vaccinated while others weren't.
    Yes, but both groups got sick, and not only unvaxed die.

    Unvaxxed individuals have a higher death rate than vaxxed individuals. Also, not all people work in office environments. There are a great number of
    people living in largely-white rural areas that thought the virus would never reach them.

    Something it doesn't mention (or that you left out), is that
    by that point, the gaps between the continued effectiveness of the shot flavors (Moderna, Pfizer, and J&J) were growing.
    The gaps between the vaccines is not nearly as large as the gap between vaccinated and not being vaccinated.
    They are large enough to cause a difference, especially the J&J vax.

    However, the difference that they cause is smaller than the difference caused by vaxxed vs. unvaxxed.

    Basically you picked an article that came to a conclusion that you liked.

    The article backed its conclusion with facts.

    Other stuff that might involve science, like continued effectiveness or what one's doctor might tell them, doesn't make a difference. Not very critical thinking of you.

    Your doctor told you that one vaccine was better than the others at
    preventing people from getting sick. Getting sick is not the same as dying,
    and people who have had any vaccine tend to have milder cases than those who have had no vaccine, thus less risk of death.

    Not very
    critical thinking of you.

    I disagree. The article was acked up by facts, not the least of which is that white people are now more likely to die of COVID-19 than black people. That's not a conclusion that the article reached; it's a fact discussed in the article.

    Also, you will claim that posting it
    doesn't mean you were trying to politicize COVID or the conclusions the article came to.

    It is what it is. If your political beliefs are preventing you from doing
    what is clearly in your best interest, then that's a function of your
    political beliefs, not me or the article. You're the one politicizing it by working it into your political beliefs.

    My political beliefs do not include "COVID-19 vaccines are beneficial."
    That's what I believe, of course, based on science and data, but it's not a political belief any more than the fact that I believe that exercise and diet are essential to healthy weight loss. It's just a medical fact.

    Uh-huh, only in Jeffland is that the case.

    Nope, that being anti-vax is part of the Republican political belief system does not make it political on my end.

    Jeff.

    --- Mystic BBS v1.12 A46 2020/08/26 (Raspberry Pi/32)
    * Origin: Cold War Computing BBS (1:387/26)
  • From Mike Powell@1:2320/105 to JEFF THIELE on Friday, October 21, 2022 17:59:00
    The only parts that are not opinion are the first two sentences of the second paragraph I quoted above.

    You left a lot of facts unquoted.

    The only parts out of what I quoted that were not opinion were the first
    two sentences.

    and assumes that people
    who were set against getting the shot would have waited until Autumn, 2021, to finally decide not to get it.

    No, it doesn't. It tracks the death rates among the two demographics over time.

    Yes it does. Otherwise, white republicans would have always been the
    leading demographic, if the "white republicans" conclusion was the correct
    one.

    It is probably easily explained by the first sentence. By Autumn 2021, most people were no longer following masking or distancing guidelines.

    The catch is in the demographics of that "most."

    As whites still make up the majority of the country, most of them not
    wearing masks would likely be white. The only people who kept wearing them
    in my office (besides me and one other person -- both white) were not black
    or white. They were Indian and usually female.

    Some places were also forcing their workforce back into the office by then.

    And some of those employees were vaccinated while others weren't.

    Yes, but both groups got sick, and not only unvaxed die.

    Something it doesn't mention (or that you left out), is that
    by that point, the gaps between the continued effectiveness of the three shot flavors (Moderna, Pfizer, and J&J) were growing.

    The gaps between the vaccines is not nearly as large as the gap between being vaccinated and not being vaccinated.

    They are large enough to cause a difference, especially the J&J vax.

    Basically you picked an article that came to a conclusion that you liked.
    Other stuff that might involve science, like continued effectiveness or
    what one's doctor might tell them, doesn't make a difference. Not very critical thinking of you. Also, you will claim that posting it
    doesn't mean you were trying to politicize COVID or the conclusions the
    article came to.

    Uh-huh, only in Jeffland is that the case.


    * SLMR 2.1a * The well resolved mind is single & one pointed
    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
  • From Aaron Thomas@1:275/99 to Jeff Thiele on Sunday, October 23, 2022 00:09:15
    "After delta's peak in September 2021, the racial differences in covid deaths started eroding. The Post analysis found that Black deaths declined, while White deaths never eased, increasing slowly but
    steadily, until the mortality gap flipped. From the end of October
    through the end of December, White people died at a higher rate than
    Black people did, The Post found." [...]

    I'm strongly against racial data in general, but listen to how that last sentence sounds "The Post found.." BS detection error! The media has been full of it about these assinine color-coded covid statistics since the beginning. Black victimhood is what keeps the Confederate wagon running smoothly.

    --- Mystic BBS v1.12 A46 2020/08/26 (Linux/64)
    * Origin: CompuBBS | Ashburn VA | cfbbs.scinet-ftn.org (1:275/99)
  • From Jeff Thiele@1:387/26 to Aaron Thomas on Sunday, October 23, 2022 00:13:46
    On 23 Oct 2022, Aaron Thomas said the following...
    "After delta's peak in September 2021, the racial differences in covi deaths started eroding. The Post analysis found that Black deaths declined, while White deaths never eased, increasing slowly but steadily, until the mortality gap flipped. From the end of October through the end of December, White people died at a higher rate than Black people did, The Post found." [...]
    I'm strongly against racial data in general, but listen to how that last sentence sounds "The Post found.." BS detection error! The media has
    been full of it about these assinine color-coded covid statistics since the beginning. Black victimhood is what keeps the Confederate wagon running smoothly.

    It was a Washington Post analysis.

    As far as "color coded covid statistics" go, wasn't it you that was
    complaining about black people getting priority care?

    And who is victimizing blacks, other than police officers? Besides, Donald Trump is the biggest victim this world has ever seen, to hear him tell it.

    At any rate, these findings are based on solid analysis.

    Jeff.

    --- Mystic BBS v1.12 A46 2020/08/26 (Raspberry Pi/32)
    * Origin: Cold War Computing BBS (1:387/26)
  • From Aaron Thomas@1:275/99 to Jeff Thiele on Sunday, October 23, 2022 13:48:48
    As far as "color coded covid statistics" go, wasn't it you that was complaining about black people getting priority care?

    Yea, it's a hate crime.

    And who is victimizing blacks, other than police officers? Besides,
    Donald Trump is the biggest victim this world has ever seen, to hear him tell it.

    Statistics are victimizing them.

    At any rate, these findings are based on solid analysis.

    There's nothing solid about The Washington Post. They are stirring the pot of racial hatred and people think that if it's printed then it's fact.

    --- Mystic BBS v1.12 A46 2020/08/26 (Linux/64)
    * Origin: CompuBBS | Ashburn VA | cfbbs.scinet-ftn.org (1:275/99)
  • From Jeff Thiele@1:387/26 to Aaron Thomas on Monday, October 24, 2022 09:04:22
    On 23 Oct 2022, Aaron Thomas said the following...
    As far as "color coded covid statistics" go, wasn't it you that was complaining about black people getting priority care?
    Yea, it's a hate crime.

    No, it's not.

    And who is victimizing blacks, other than police officers? Besides, Donald Trump is the biggest victim this world has ever seen, to hear tell it.
    Statistics are victimizing them.

    You're confusing cause and effect. Statistics reflect reality, not the other way around. At any rate, these particular statistics indicate that black
    people are doing quite well for themselves.

    At any rate, these findings are based on solid analysis.
    There's nothing solid about The Washington Post. They are stirring the
    pot of racial hatred and people think that if it's printed then it's
    fact.

    They named the sources of the statistics. Do you have any evidence of this reporting not being solid?

    Jeff.

    --- Mystic BBS v1.12 A46 2020/08/26 (Raspberry Pi/32)
    * Origin: Cold War Computing BBS (1:387/26)
  • From Aaron Thomas@1:275/99 to Jeff Thiele on Monday, October 24, 2022 16:58:08
    At any rate, these findings are based on solid analysis.
    There's nothing solid about The Washington Post. They are stirring th pot of racial hatred and people think that if it's printed then it's fact.

    They named the sources of the statistics. Do you have any evidence of
    this reporting not being solid?

    Yes, it came from the media. The media doesn't "report," but instead they "narrate."

    That's fine. But according to these statistics, and according to past behaviors, it appears to be time for Democrats to start prioritizing whites ahead of all other colors for antiviral treatment. So when can we expect that to become law? (Not that I'm in favor of it - but logic is logic.)

    --- Mystic BBS v1.12 A46 2020/08/26 (Linux/64)
    * Origin: CompuBBS | Ashburn VA | cfbbs.scinet-ftn.org (1:275/99)
  • From Jeff Thiele@1:387/26 to Aaron Thomas on Monday, October 24, 2022 17:40:41
    On 24 Oct 2022, Aaron Thomas said the following...
    They named the sources of the statistics. Do you have any evidence of this reporting not being solid?
    Yes, it came from the media. The media doesn't "report," but instead they "narrate."

    That is not evidence.

    That's fine. But according to these statistics, and according to past behaviors, it appears to be time for Democrats to start prioritizing whites ahead of all other colors for antiviral treatment. So when can we expect that to become law? (Not that I'm in favor of it - but logic is logic.)

    Perhaps, perhaps not. That would depend on whether black people with COVID-19 are more likely to experience more severe symptoms and/or die than white
    people with COVID-19, which is different from black people being less likely
    to die of COVID-19 in general.

    Jeff.

    --- Mystic BBS v1.12 A46 2020/08/26 (Raspberry Pi/32)
    * Origin: Cold War Computing BBS (1:387/26)
  • From Mike Powell@1:2320/105 to JEFF THIELE on Tuesday, October 25, 2022 16:37:00
    Perhaps, perhaps not. That would depend on whether black people with COVID-19 are more likely to experience more severe symptoms and/or die than white people with COVID-19, which is different from black people being less likely to die of COVID-19 in general.

    Did the article you posted mention anything about that? There are diseases that do indeed affect persons of different ethnic and genealogic
    backgrounds than do others. Research into whether or not COVID was one of
    them would be of interest and might help put things into context.

    OTOH, it might also encourage persons not of that heritage to be lax in
    what they do when it comes to their own preventative care. Catch-22.


    * SLMR 2.1a * D.A.M.N. Nude Mothers against Dyslexia
    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
  • From Jeff Thiele@1:387/26 to Mike Powell on Tuesday, October 25, 2022 21:36:18
    On 25 Oct 2022, Mike Powell said the following...
    Perhaps, perhaps not. That would depend on whether black people with COV are more likely to experience more severe symptoms and/or die than white people with COVID-19, which is different from black people being less li to die of COVID-19 in general.
    Did the article you posted mention anything about that?

    Not that I'm aware of.

    There are
    diseases that do indeed affect persons of different ethnic and genealogic backgrounds than do others. Research into whether or not COVID was one
    of them would be of interest and might help put things into context.

    Indeed, it's been well-documented that due to a combination of genetics and various stressors associated with generational poverty, black people infected with COVID-19 were more likely to die than white people with COVID-19.

    It would boil down to what exact effect the vaccines are having. Obviously, they are both helping to prevent infection and also lessening symptoms if one does become infected. If the drop in the rate of black people dying from COVID-19 is primarily due to the vaccine's ability to lessen symptoms, then their prioritization in the triage system may need to be reconsidered.
    However, if the drop in the rate of black people dying from COVID=19 is primarily due to the vaccine's ability to prevent infections, then it's quite possible that a black person who does become infected is still more likely to die than an infected white person; there are just fewer of them. In that
    case, their prioritization in the triage system still makes sense.

    OTOH, it might also encourage persons not of that heritage to be lax in what they do when it comes to their own preventative care. Catch-22.

    It might, it might not. That's not really a consideration in presenting facts.

    Jeff.

    --- Mystic BBS v1.12 A46 2020/08/26 (Raspberry Pi/32)
    * Origin: Cold War Computing BBS (1:387/26)
  • From Mike Powell@1:2320/105 to JEFF THIELE on Wednesday, October 26, 2022 16:27:00
    There are
    diseases that do indeed affect persons of different ethnic and genealogic
    backgrounds than do others. Research into whether or not COVID was one of them would be of interest and might help put things into context.

    Indeed, it's been well-documented that due to a combination of genetics and various stressors associated with generational poverty, black people infected with COVID-19 were more likely to die than white people with COVID-19.

    So there have been genetic reasons documented? I only seem to ever hear
    the latter, which should also mean that Apalachians should have been dying
    at a higher rate for the same reasons.


    * SLMR 2.1a * Assumption is the mother of all screw-ups.
    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
  • From Jeff Thiele@1:387/26 to Mike Powell on Wednesday, October 26, 2022 16:33:43
    On 26 Oct 2022, Mike Powell said the following...
    There are
    diseases that do indeed affect persons of different ethnic and genealogic
    backgrounds than do others. Research into whether or not COVID was of them would be of interest and might help put things into context
    Indeed, it's been well-documented that due to a combination of genetics various stressors associated with generational poverty, black people inf with COVID-19 were more likely to die than white people with COVID-19.
    So there have been genetic reasons documented? I only seem to ever hear the latter, which should also mean that Apalachians should have been
    dying at a higher rate for the same reasons.

    It seems that there are variants of the APOL1 gene that are largely only present in people of West African descent. While these variants can help against African sleeping sickness, they can also make people more vilnerable
    to complications from HIV and COVID-19.

    Jeff.

    --- Mystic BBS v1.12 A46 2020/08/26 (Raspberry Pi/32)
    * Origin: Cold War Computing BBS (1:387/26)
  • From Mike Powell@1:2320/105 to JEFF THIELE on Thursday, October 27, 2022 18:40:00
    There are
    diseases that do indeed affect persons of different ethnic and genealogic
    backgrounds than do others. Research into whether or not COVID wa
    of them would be of interest and might help put things into contex
    Indeed, it's been well-documented that due to a combination of genetics
    various stressors associated with generational poverty, black people in
    with COVID-19 were more likely to die than white people with COVID-19.
    So there have been genetic reasons documented? I only seem to ever hear the latter, which should also mean that Apalachians should have been dying at a higher rate for the same reasons.

    It seems that there are variants of the APOL1 gene that are largely only present in people of West African descent. While these variants can help against African sleeping sickness, they can also make people more vilnerable to complications from HIV and COVID-19.

    Interesting. I also saw something on the local news yesterday that
    mentioned the vaccines were more effective when the subject exercised regularly. Another reason not to become a couch potato. :)


    * SLMR 2.1a * The Magic of Windows: Turns a Pentium back into an XT.
    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)