Japanese population projected to live longer without dementia

Date:
April 27, 2022
Source:
University of Tokyo
Summary:
A new microsimulation projects that over the next 20 years, Japanese
people will live longer without dementia, but older women with a
less than high school education will benefit less than men.



FULL STORY ==========================================================================
A new detailed microsimulation, using a database of 40 million people,
has examined the future of Japan's aging population up to 2043. It
projects that more people will live longer, and that overall years spent
living with dementia will decrease. However, the model highlighted
the diversity of impacts on different segments of the population, as
Japanese women with a less than high school education aged 75 and over
may be disproportionately affected by both dementia and frailty. Better understanding where health gaps like this exist can help inform public
health planning, to minimize future economic costs and support those
most in need.


========================================================================== Taking care of the older members of society is a common concern around
the world. Japan is famous for its long-lived residents, the number of
which continues to rise. In 2020, almost 30% of the Japanese population
was aged 65 years or older, and this age group is not projected to
peak until 2034. Caring for people with age-related ailments, such as
dementia and frailty, poses a challenge both to individuals and public
health care systems.

Microsimulation models, which are computer models that can provide
detailed analysis on an individual basis, are currently used to project
future population health in some countries, such as the U.K. and the
U.S. Professor Hideki Hashimoto and researchers at the University of
Tokyo, along with researchers from Stanford University in the U.S.,
wanted to create a new microsimulation model for Japan, which would take
into account more diverse conditions than had been considered before.

"We developed a new Japanese microsimulation model that accounts
for 13 chronic conditions (including heart disease, stroke, diabetes, depression and dependency), as well as frailty and dementia," explained Hashimoto. "Using an ultralarge data system, we were able to 'follow'
a virtual cohort of more than 40 million people aged 60 and over from
2016 to 2043." According to Hashimoto, projections of aging in Japan
usually rely on the "average" status of older people and so don't
consider the diversity of the population. "I believe that problems of
aging are a matter of health gaps over the course of people's lives,"
he said. "Our projection brings attention to a widening health gap
among older people. It highlighted that women with a less than high
school education aged 75 or over are more likely to be affected."
Identifying where health gaps like this exist could be used to better
inform public policy, not only about health care but other influential
aspects of life. "Japan's case may suggest that improvement in educational attainment, as well as population health, could be a key to making a
healthier and more manageable aging society," said Hashimoto.

Positively, this study shows hope for a future where many people live
longer and more healthy lives. "People might believe that an increase
in cases of dementia is inescapable, given population aging. However,
in this study we found that in Japan, despite an aging population, the
number of people with dementia is expected to decrease over the next
two decades," said Hashimoto.

"Population aging does not necessarily mean an increase of social burden
for care, but it does bring a diversity of problems that requires careful
study and science-based policy attention, to close the health gap."

========================================================================== Story Source: Materials provided by University_of_Tokyo. Note: Content
may be edited for style and length.


========================================================================== Journal Reference:
1. Megumi Kasajima, Karen Eggleston, Shoki Kusaka, Hiroki Matsui,
Tomoki
Tanaka, Bo-Kyung Son, Katsuya Iijima, Kazuo Goda, Masaru
Kitsuregawa, Jay Bhattacharya, Hideki Hashimoto. Projecting
prevalence of frailty and dementia and the economic cost of
care in Japan from 2016 to 2043: a microsimulation modelling
study. The Lancet Public Health, 2022; 7 (5): e458 DOI:
10.1016/S2468-2667(22)00044-5 ==========================================================================

Link to news story: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/04/220427115813.htm

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