04/13/2024

Colorado State University (CSU) hurricane researchers predict an active Atlantic hurricane season (June 1 to November 30) in their initial 2024 forecast.

ARRL Director of Emergency Management Josh Johnston, KE5MHV, attended the National Hurricane Conference in Florida in late March, where the CSU prediction was issued. "The common discussion at the National Hurricane Conference this year was the potential for a very active year, and the forecast from CSU enforces that thought," said Johnston. "Several of the forecasters were pointing to indications that we are moving from an El Niño to a La Niña and that could potentially cause a more active season."  

The CSU Tropical Weather & Climate Research team[1] predicts 23 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season. Of those, researchers forecast that 11 will become hurricanes and five will reach major hurricane strength, as measured by the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale[2], with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater. The prediction is above the 30-year average for hurricanes and storms and is above the total of 20 storms, seven hurricanes, and three Category 3 or higher hurricanes in 2023.  

Senior Research Scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at CSU and the lead author of the report Phil Klotzbach said, "So far, the 2024 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to 1878, 1926, 1998, 2010, and 2020. Our analog seasons were all very active Atlantic hurricane seasons."  

The team predicts that 2024 hurricane activity will be about 170% of the average season from 1991 - 2020. By comparison, 2023's hurricane activity was about 120% of the average season. The report also includes the probability of major hurricanes making landfall, including a 62% probability for the entire US coastline.

The average landfall from 1880 - 2020 was 43%.   The report also indicates increased landfall probabilities of 34% for the East Coast of the US, including the Florida peninsula (the average from 1880 - 2020 was 21%); 42% for the Gulf Coast, from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville (the average from 1880 - 2020 was 27%), and 66% for the Caribbean (the average from 1880 - 2020 was 47%).  

The National Weather Service (NWS), National Hurricane Center (NHC), and Hurricane Watch Net (HWN) are prepared for an active hurricane season. Amateur radio operators can take part in activations on 14.325 MHz during the day and on 7.268 kHz at night. As propagation changes, the HWN may operate both frequencies simultaneously.  

At the Florida conference, Johnston also highlighted the relationship between ARRL and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)[3], as well as ARRL's position as a net control station within the SHAred RESources High Frequency Radio Program (SHARES)[4] managed by the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency.  

"Now is the time to prepare for emergencies of any type by building relationships, training and refreshing skills, and testing and preparing equipment," added Johnston.


[1] https://tropical.colostate.edu/
[2] https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php
[3] https://www.arrl.org/news/arrl-and-fema-sign-agreement-ham-radio-is-as-relevant-as-ever
[4] https://www.cisa.gov/resources-tools/programs/shared-resources-shares-high-frequency-hf-radio-program

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