My super awesome American friends who've had a lesson or two in Canadian civics, feel free to chime in too!

I was paying close attention to the chaotic events that happened this week in the House of Commons, and honestly, this moment feels pretty unique in Canadian politics. A recap if you missed it:

-Chrystia Freeland (the Minister of Finance and the Deputy Prime Minister), upon being told that she was being reassigned from her current portfolio, opted to ditch Cabinet entirely in a (imho) pretty damning letter to Justin Trudeau.
-She does this literal hours before she's supposed to present the Fall 2024 Economic Statement, which results in Karina Gould having to present it in part (revealing a $22 billion budget overrun, totalling $61.9 billion).
-Meanwhile, there are renewed calls both inside and outside of the Liberal Party for Justin Trudeau to step down.

Obviously, this is kind of a big deal. What I'm wondering is how you folks think this will unfold as we dive headfirst into an election year. My thinking revolves around a couple distinct possibilities:

1. The NDP is going to do what they've been threatening to do since the
supply-and-confidence agreement with the Liberals ended, which is to join
the Conservatives (and in all likelihood, the Bloc Quebecois) in passing a non-confidence vote, which will trigger an early election.
2. Justin Trudeau will step down, and the Liberals will attempt to
reposition themselves with a leadership race in much the same way the Democratic Party did with Kamala Harris in the US.

I have HUGE doubts about the latter of those two, and frankly, whether it would even be a worthwile gamble for the Liberals anyways. Furthermore, if an early election IS called (and if the polls are to be believed), the Conservatives are almost certainly going to win, and Pierre Poilievre will be the next Prime Minister of Canada.

Would love to hear some different opinions from others on this. Cheers, and an early Merry Christmas + Happy New Year to all of you fine people :) :)

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