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ACUS11 KWNS 010144
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010143=20
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-010315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0383
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0843 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022

Areas affected...Parts of the Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 87...89...

Valid 010143Z - 010315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 87, 89
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for isolated damaging winds will persist
through about 03z, and then diminish by 04z.

DISCUSSION...A pre-frontal band of convection, with some embedded
bowing segments, will likely persist for another 1-2 hours across NJ
and vicinity, before diminishing near the expiration time of watch
89 at 04z. Despite the loss of insolation, low-level moisture
advection from the south will support modest increases in buoyancy
as low 60s dewpoints spread northward across NJ. The
moistening/weak destabilization will occur in a strongly sheared
environment per local VWPs, with largely line-parallel shear of
40-50 kt in the lowest km above ground level. This convection
appears to be coincident with a lead mid-upper speed max, and
low-level flow is expected to veer in the next 2 hours and weaken
with passage of this speed max aloft. In the interim, isolated
damaging gusts will still be possible given the high-momentum (50-60
kt) southwesterly low-level flow and modest downdraft potential
along the line (a little increase in DCAPE this evening).

Farther west, a few storms have recently intensified near the
synoptic cold front and in association with the speed max aloft,
near the south central PA border. Some weak destabilization in the
wake of the pre-frontal band could support a localized wind threat
for 1-2 hours from south central into southeast PA.

..Thompson.. 04/01/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uSWWHvGFjSZEJDWvm26aiThHVNaHWugdHJ3WqMAHOKG-1nP6OVlJNIkA80SgP5DFiNXjeC4q$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 40507392 39757472 39147631 39217639 39487648 39577735
39727766 40067740 40407610 40607501 40977437 41427388
41357366 40507392=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 292105
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292105=20
NYZ000-PAZ000-300100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0383
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0405 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023

Areas affected...Northern Pennsylvania and New York

Concerning...Snow Squall=20

Valid 292105Z - 300100Z

SUMMARY...Snow squalls will be possible through the evening hours
across northern Pennsylvania and central/western New York as a cold
front pushes across the region.

DISCUSSION...A cold front tracking eastward across the lower Great
Lakes region is beginning to move into portions of OH, PA, and
western NY. While temperatures ahead of this front remain the upper
40s and low 50s, surface observations behind the front show
temperatures quickly falling into the low 30s with moderate to heavy
snow, visibility reductions between 1/2 to 1/4 mile, and strong wind
gusts between 35-45 mph. Strong pressure rises behind the front are
also noted west of the Buffalo, NY region, suggesting that the
strongest frontal surge will occur across the western NY area for
the next several hours. Snow squall conditions are expected to
persist immediately behind this front as it continues east across
northern PA and much of NY through the evening hours, and may extend
as far east as the New England region during the overnight hours.

..Moore.. 03/29/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_z31rURWJV65pKPpv9u88NgeCTAKhnr1rfKzvBJ7CqM6qcTTOMFDCKP94TJnimDlqzi0v9ZNo= zlRR03y7adPakpnG-Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON 43247904 43907787 44957596 45147523 45137434 44907383
44397364 43517393 42657463 42017577 41527727 41347881
41377973 41768014 42318011 42627993 43247904=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 081527
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081526=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-081800-

Mesoscale Discussion 0383
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1026 AM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024

Areas affected...parts of the mid/upper Texas coastal plain and
adjacent western Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 081526Z - 081800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may begin to form
across and inland of mid/upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coastal
areas by early afternoon. This may be accompanied by at least some
risk for severe hail, and perhaps a tornado, before storms increase
and intensify with a more notable increase in severe weather
potential later this afternoon, as activity spreads toward
central/northern Texas.

DISCUSSION...An initial influx of low-level moisture, which
accompanied a significant cyclone now weakening over the Upper
Midwest vicinity, lingers along and south of a stalling/weakening
boundary now extending across the lower Mississippi Valley into
southeastern Texas. This includes surface dew points ranging from
the lower 70s across the northwestern Gulf into immediate Texas Gulf
coastal areas, and upper 60s F further inland across the coastal
plain, which will begin to advect northwestward and northward
through the day, downstream of a significant short wave trough
turning eastward across the Southwest.

Beneath the northeastern periphery of a plume of elevated
mixed-layer air advecting across the lower Rio Grande Valley, this
moisture already appears to be contributing to sizable CAPE on the
order of 2000 J/kg. This probably will increase at least a bit
further through the day, as thin spots and breaks in the overcast
allow for some insolation.

At the same time, models indicate strengthening of southwesterly
flow into mid-levels (30-50+ kts in the 700-500 mb layer), beneath a
strong upper jet emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, and
by early afternoon the environment will become increasingly
conducive to potential for supercells. Various model output
suggests that at least widely scattered thunderstorms may begin to
form across and inland of coastal areas by around 17-18Z, before
gradually intensifying and increasing further within northwestward
and northward spreading large-scale ascent aided by low-level warm
advection.

While it is possible that it may take a couple of hours for a more
substantive increase in severe weather potential to develop, as
storms acquire better inflow of more unstable near-surface air,
initial storms may pose at least some risk for severe hail. The
risk for a brief tornado may also not be completely negligible,
though clockwise curved low-level hodographs will initially be weak.

..Kerr/Gleason.. 04/08/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-jb4e4YE9_s1kLLDAgFCgEzdk_wUKNlL9D9jXrBLyoW7M9C9cayJ5U1TygOCaO2tLZaO4QynA= 9OEBPDRrFYTFxiA53s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 29189796 30279668 31559496 32079393 31989315 31709266
30679286 30279415 29849513 29319588 28649711 28589781
29189796=20


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