• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0382

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, March 31, 2022 23:59:22
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    ACUS11 KWNS 312359
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 312358=20
    NCZ000-010200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0382
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0658 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022

    Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 88...

    Valid 312358Z - 010200Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 88 continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for a brief tornado or two may continue for the
    next one or two hours for parts of eastern North Carolina.

    DISCUSSION...Latest GOES IR imagery and lightning data have shown a
    slight intensification of convection across eastern NC over the past
    1-2 hours. A few transient convergence zones/weak mesocyclones have
    been noted with more discrete convection. Although consolidated cold
    pool amalgamation is likely underway within the loosely organized
    line based on latest KMHX velocity data, the noted convective trends
    hint that robust convection may persist for the next 1-2 hours.
    Given very strong veering in the 0-2 km layer (based on KMHX VWP
    obs), transient mesocyclones, either embedded within the line or
    associated with any discrete convection to the east of the line, are
    possible and may pose a tornado threat. However, storm motions along
    the axis of lift/oriented along the line cast uncertainty into this
    potential.

    ..Moore.. 03/31/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qqO8TcYtJ5-cJa17mObcYtRKitPIhLXXTrZQN_8gaUqxv_s15CtU9VBFXww1RLvkJAUT_cKM$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MHX...

    LAT...LON 35037729 35547684 35867614 35857543 35497527 35037560
    34717622 34537654 34497716 34657736 34847736 35037729=20



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, March 28, 2023 18:09:08
    ACUS11 KWNS 281809
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 281808=20
    FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-282015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0382
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0108 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023

    Areas affected...Central/Eastern FL Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 281808Z - 282015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts are possible across the central
    and eastern FL Panhandle this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery shows the cluster of thunderstorms
    gradually moving eastward across the FL Panhandle has become
    slightly more organized along its outflow. This trend is likely to
    continue as the outflow continues pushing eastward into the moist
    and unstable air mass downstream across the central FL Panhandle.
    Cloud cover preceding the line will temper diurnal heating, likely
    keeping low-level lapse rates below 7 deg C per km and potentially
    mitigating some of the threat for damaging gusts.

    Surface analysis also reveals a modifying outflow boundary extended
    west to east from about 20-25 miles west-northwest of TLH to near
    JAX. Thunderstorm coverage has increased north of this boundary over
    the past hour, likely confining any severe risk to its immediate
    vicinity and south.=20

    All of these factors suggest the severe threat should remain
    isolated, with water-loaded downdrafts as the primary risk. This
    limited risk will likely preclude the need for watch, but convective
    trends will still be monitored closely.

    ..Mosier/Guyer.. 03/28/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!800IPFQgebPTplmJUYZ83ou5ZqVhRKP8_U2gubyAOYyHJ4tgcnQrglo7qhjruE4W7MCZxMBTi= uRa39G5FJRdRRkHvRg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TAE...

    LAT...LON 30798611 31068571 31048457 30888352 30188325 29538354
    29918633 30798611=20


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