• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0381

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, March 31, 2022 23:13:51
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    ACUS11 KWNS 312313
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 312313=20 NYZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-01004=
    5-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0381
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0613 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022

    Areas affected...portions of the Mid Atlantic and southern New
    England

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 89...

    Valid 312313Z - 010045Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 89
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Strong wind gusts will remain possible for a few more
    hours this evening. Storms should gradually weaken after sunset as
    they move farther east.

    DISCUSSION...As of 2315 UTC regional RADAR analysis showed several
    broken bands of thunderstorms from east-central PA and the DelMarVa
    to southern New England. Ahead of the storms, the low-level airmass
    remains weakly unstable with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s and
    low 60s F. Farther east toward the coast, widespread cloud cover is
    present, limiting overall destabilization. Limited instability
    (MUCAPE less than 250 J/Kg) along the northern part of the
    convective line in eastern NY and southern New England should
    continue to wane as storms move eastward this evening. Robust
    environment winds (1km flow 60-70 kt) near the surface may support
    occasional strong wind gusts, but the overall severe threat should
    continue to decrease over the next few hours.

    Farther south across PA and VA, greater confidence in a continued
    severe risk exists for a few more hours. The ongoing strong/severe
    storms may persist longer given locally higher buoyancy (approx
    500-1000 J/Kg MUCAPE) and surface moisture. Strong wind gusts will
    be the primary risk given very strong flow aloft. These storms
    should also begin to weaken after sunset as the boundary layer
    gradually begins to stabilize.

    ..Lyons.. 03/31/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qJeUG_vwwtOkKKxOeb4BrogAG-LIOvdc4x6nfcVDyPUGpHHfqntOxHV4mcT9wSRd62N58fUD$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
    RNK...

    LAT...LON 37737806 37737891 37867924 38117932 38797869 38957838
    40857653 41587580 42327493 42447391 42397358 42087305
    41467298 40677351 40057418 39497484 39067542 38247677
    37737806=20



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, March 28, 2023 12:42:08
    ACUS11 KWNS 281242
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 281241=20
    ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-281345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0381
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0741 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023

    Areas affected...parts of southeastern Louisiana...southern
    Mississippi...and southwestern Alabama

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 281241Z - 281345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Strong/locally severe storms -- capable of producing
    severe-caliber hail -- will continue over the next few hours.

    DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front extending
    from near the Alabama/Mississippi Gulf Coast westward across the
    vicinity of Lake Pontchartrain, and then southwestward off the
    southwestern Louisiana coast. Primarily to the north of this
    boundary, strong storms -- with a few occasionally producing
    marginally severe hail -- are ongoing.=20=20

    Model forecast soundings suggest sufficient elevated CAPE --
    confirmed by the morning LCH RAOB showing around 1000 J/kg and
    around 2000 J/kg from LIX. Given speed shear around 30 kt in the
    cloud-bearing layer, a few stronger storms -- perhaps with weak
    mid-level rotation -- will persist for the next few hours, spreading
    gradually eastward with time. However, given the modest kinematic
    environment, maximum hail size should remain limited to roughly the
    1" to 1.5" range. As such, a limited number of the more intense
    updrafts -- which has thus far precluded the need for WW issuance --
    should remain the case over the next few hours.

    ..Goss/Grams.. 03/28/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5W933Qy40Obz_8RtCOu91e88QnugBvKpqoc2pkZSKEy-XUtuJZ52srfzacMUCM2dcltgCPGfC= 2-tQvczGwSgXxqQUEA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

    LAT...LON 31339085 31689032 31898836 31608777 30568795 30168995
    30439056 30769093 31339085=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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