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ACUS11 KWNS 312313
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312313=20 NYZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-01004=
5-
Mesoscale Discussion 0381
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0613 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022
Areas affected...portions of the Mid Atlantic and southern New
England
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 89...
Valid 312313Z - 010045Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 89
continues.
SUMMARY...Strong wind gusts will remain possible for a few more
hours this evening. Storms should gradually weaken after sunset as
they move farther east.
DISCUSSION...As of 2315 UTC regional RADAR analysis showed several
broken bands of thunderstorms from east-central PA and the DelMarVa
to southern New England. Ahead of the storms, the low-level airmass
remains weakly unstable with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s and
low 60s F. Farther east toward the coast, widespread cloud cover is
present, limiting overall destabilization. Limited instability
(MUCAPE less than 250 J/Kg) along the northern part of the
convective line in eastern NY and southern New England should
continue to wane as storms move eastward this evening. Robust
environment winds (1km flow 60-70 kt) near the surface may support
occasional strong wind gusts, but the overall severe threat should
continue to decrease over the next few hours.
Farther south across PA and VA, greater confidence in a continued
severe risk exists for a few more hours. The ongoing strong/severe
storms may persist longer given locally higher buoyancy (approx
500-1000 J/Kg MUCAPE) and surface moisture. Strong wind gusts will
be the primary risk given very strong flow aloft. These storms
should also begin to weaken after sunset as the boundary layer
gradually begins to stabilize.
..Lyons.. 03/31/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qJeUG_vwwtOkKKxOeb4BrogAG-LIOvdc4x6nfcVDyPUGpHHfqntOxHV4mcT9wSRd62N58fUD$=
for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
RNK...
LAT...LON 37737806 37737891 37867924 38117932 38797869 38957838
40857653 41587580 42327493 42447391 42397358 42087305
41467298 40677351 40057418 39497484 39067542 38247677
37737806=20
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