• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0376

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, March 31, 2022 16:08:34
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 311608
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 311607=20
    PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-311730-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0376
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1107 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022

    Areas affected...Western/central Pennsylvania into western Maryland

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 311607Z - 311730Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage is possible early this afternoon as
    storm develop in western Pennsylvania/Maryland. Storm intensity is
    expected to increase later this afternoon into central/eastern
    Pennsylvania and adjacent areas of Maryland. Trends will continue to
    be monitored for a watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Cloud cover has continued to clear across West Virginia
    into western Pennsylvania as mid-level dry air overspreads the area.
    Though MLCAPE values remain below 300 J/kg, surface heating has
    brought temperatures in southwestern Pennsylvania into the upper 60s
    F. Low-level lapse rates are likely steepened enough to support a
    risk for damaging wind gusts given 50-60 kts of wind within the
    lowest 2 km on regional VAD winds.

    Into central Pennsylvania, more time will be require to destabilize
    as cloud cover has kept temperatures in the mid/upper 50s F.
    However, with the decreasing cloud cover expected, an increasing
    severe risk will probably occur by mid-afternoon. Southerly winds
    should advect increasing moisture into the area as well.

    Limited buoyancy and veered surface winds in western Pennsylvania
    will limit the tornado risk with early activity. Surface winds will
    remain more backed in central/eastern Pennsylvania along with
    greater 850 mb wind speeds. The greater tornado threat is likely to
    exist farther east and later this afternoon.

    ..Wendt/Hart.. 03/31/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qpwUN5Tmdug8XVapS20_dYayN5qMhXNG6Xw2V7glW_QQCPQBAgN3IWHfUY08D86hO6cfJyB8$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

    LAT...LON 40437993 41577901 41977810 41927725 41767643 41217609
    40197634 39587710 39367862 39578019 39958028 40437993=20



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, March 27, 2023 19:03:01
    ACUS11 KWNS 271902
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 271902=20
    TXZ000-272100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0376
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0202 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023

    Areas affected...Southern Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 271902Z - 272100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may intensify enough
    to pose a hail threat this afternoon. Additional thunderstorms along
    the Rio Grande are possible late afternoon/evening and may also pose
    a severe threat.

    DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms developing over the Edwards
    Plateau within a modest regime of low-level warm air/moisture return
    have quickly intensified over the past hour. Small hail has been
    reported with one supercell southwest of the San Angelo area, and
    recent MRMS hail parameters suggest at least sporadic severe hail is
    possible with the developing cells. Despite relatively cool/dry
    conditions at the surface and modest buoyancy profiles, strong flow
    over the region (as sampled by recent KSJT VWP observations) is
    supporting elongated, nearly straight hodographs within the
    effective layer. This will continue to support the potential for
    splitting supercells through the afternoon amid persistent lift and
    limited most-unstable inhibition. The limited buoyancy (around 500
    J/kg MUCAPE within the region of greatest ascent based off visible
    satellite trends) limits confidence in the longevity and spatial
    extent of the threat, though a few instances of severe hail appear
    possible through the late afternoon.=20

    Further south along the Rio Grande, better low-level moisture will
    support surface-based parcels with MLCAPE upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg.
    Visible imagery shows a cluster of deepening cumulus along the
    Sierra del Carmen mountains in northern Mexico. Thunderstorms
    developing out of this cluster may intensify if they can be
    sustained long enough to reach the higher-quality moisture across
    the international border. While this scenario is somewhat
    conditional, a severe hail/wind risk may materialize this later this
    afternoon.

    ..Moore/Guyer.. 03/27/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-zIrbXNRxpSYrw6m9Jpg_GpUEgxDmQY6XTcim-OomO_QpOaNry98X0AL2vYUdsiyI4ei5Qxdo= B-C1LndSNr1UKguhHQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 30419944 29999992 29480017 29050022 28800043 28740070
    29100096 29440133 29630171 29700201 30080212 30490208
    30920196 31300183 31750118 32150011 32229968 32119919
    31859874 31509840 31129833 30769868 30419944=20


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