• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0370

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, March 31, 2022 02:57:46
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    ACUS11 KWNS 310257
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 310257=20
    ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-310500-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0370
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0957 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

    Areas affected...southwest AL

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 82...

    Valid 310257Z - 310500Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 82 continues.

    SUMMARY...Increasing confidence in the severe threat (significant
    wind damage and tornado risk) with a couple of embedded supercells
    as they moves across southwest AL through 12am CDT.

    DISCUSSION...KMOB radar imagery shows a couple of supercells
    embedded in the convective line over southwest AL/far southeast MS
    in proximity to a very moisture rich airmass. Surface observations
    show dewpoints in the upper 60s deg F. Very strong low-level wind
    fields increasing with height will favor supercellular mode, despite
    a convective line contributing to a messy/erratic low-level
    rear-flank downdraft structure. Recent Warn-on-Forecast guidance
    has highlighted this general corridor across southwest AL with model
    ensemble Updraft Helicity swaths. Observations in terms of an
    intense storm in southwest AL seem to be aligning with this guidance
    thus far. Current expectation is for both the tornado and damaging
    wind threat to increase despite HP structure as they move
    east-northeast over the next couple of hours.

    ..Smith.. 03/31/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uYUjalp575RV8LtFfyBNXJMv4EhV4_3k--oBLy-bzTs4ocWNaj3WrfNJ04L2wkbo3uc_QTdM$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...

    LAT...LON 31248838 31598719 31228707 30578769 30338893 31248838=20



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, March 27, 2023 08:04:28
    ACUS11 KWNS 270804
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 270804=20
    GAZ000-ALZ000-271000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0370
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0304 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023

    Areas affected...east-central Alabama

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 270804Z - 271000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Risk for a tornado is locally enhanced over parts of
    east-central Alabama and adjacent far west-central Georgia. WW
    issuance is not anticipated due to local nature of the risk.

    DISCUSSION...Latest surface data indicates an outflow-enhanced,
    west-to-east segment of the surface boundary lying across eastern
    Georgia, where Auburn, AL and Columbus, GA obs sites show easterly
    flow, with sites just to the south depicting southerlies. This
    boundary also marks the northern fringe of near 70 dewpoints, and
    associated zone of maximized CAPE.

    An earlier storm that moved through Macon County AL acquired
    rotation in proximity to this boundary (around 0630Z), and now a
    second storm has organized, as it shifted across northern Montgomery
    County and now into Macon/far southeastern Elmore Counties.

    This storm has acquired much stronger rotation than the earlier
    storm, with 60 kt rotational velocity and a TDS (local minimum in
    WSR-88D correlation coefficient) indicative of a potentially strong
    tornado occurring at this time.

    With that said, the area of maximized potential appears to be very
    local, with uncertainty as to whether any additional storm will
    occur within this small zone. As such, WW issuance is not
    anticipated at this time, but we will continue to monitor for any
    signs of increasing potential over a broader geographic area.

    ..Goss/Grams.. 03/27/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6Ezbqv1PLXg2ksEbM7XLfN3HQnUhKaPmrlQ8MUeVnKHPoHf8bOQIibDCJvvfLDz0XMF0r7SLC= A8Z1VZmBBB4oBGML-0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...

    LAT...LON 32318644 32688592 32848536 32638477 32458487 32228609
    32318644=20


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