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ACUS11 KWNS 310150
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310150=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-310245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0368
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0850 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

Areas affected...Far southeast Mississippi and far southwest Alabama

Concerning...Tornado Watch 82...

Valid 310150Z - 310245Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 82 continues.

SUMMARY...A significant tornado threat is materializing across
southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama.

DISCUSSION...Several mature supercells have emerged from the squall
line across Wayne, Perry, and Greene counties in southeast
Mississippi. The tornadic environment ahead of these storms is
improving substantially with a STP bullseye around 4 near these
storms. Low-level convergence has strengthened considerably in the
vicinity of each of these supercells. Therefore, given storm trends
and the increasingly favorable tornadic environment ahead of these
storms, the strong tornado threat is increasing.

..Bentley.. 03/31/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oXJpzAh8nFTYMDC7XN1lKtSWBoe5yqzUslMlYwM_N5x_u6d33OkcN-MbzHZJOoO-7_Wy-tTX$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON 31828884 32068868 32188828 31948800 31348790 30858807
30768869 30768903 31048921 31828884=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 270400
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270359=20
SCZ000-GAZ000-270600-

Mesoscale Discussion 0368
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1059 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

Areas affected...parts of northeast Georgia through central South
Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 270359Z - 270600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered strong thunderstorm
development likely will persist into the 2-3 AM EDT time frame,
accompanied by at least some severe weather potential. It is not
yet clear that a severe weather watch is needed, but trends will
continue to be monitored for this possibility.

DISCUSSION...As the mesoscale convective vortex progresses
east-northeastward toward central Georgia, the associated convective
cluster in proximity to it seems likely to weaken due to inflow of
more modest CAPE. But lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection
probably will maintain, or increase, convection within a corridor
downstream, from the northeastern Georgia Piedmont into the
northeastern South Carolina coastal plain through 06-07Z. Modestly
steep mid-level lapse rates and strong convective-layer shear may
support the occasional development of embedded supercell structures,
mostly rooted above at least a shallow saturated near-surface layer
with lapse rates more stable than moist adiabatic, based on forecast
soundings. Given this environment, the severe weather potential
seems likely to remain marginal and relatively localized in nature.

..Kerr/Thompson.. 03/27/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9m5c3oEN4luuTkdHuQJuFhCgCOaerGuPUfSNjBMFt7lgn7T5iTeGrjxv6o5myjnYNaMqMtBBU= EybsvRlb1c41hl_rOI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

LAT...LON 33998347 34428123 34137923 33337904 33328105 33248334
33998347=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 031520
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031520=20
MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-031715-

Mesoscale Discussion 0368
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1020 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024

Areas affected...Portions of northern NC into VA...MD...and DE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 031520Z - 031715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for severe thunderstorms capable of producing
damaging winds, a few tornadoes and perhaps some hail should
gradually increase over the next couple of hours. Watch issuance
will probably be needed.

DISCUSSION...15Z surface observations show a front draped southwest
to northeast across VA into MD/DE, with a surface low centered over
southwest VA. This low is forecast to slowly deepen as it develops northeastward along the front towards central VA/MD by late this
afternoon. Although clouds remain widespread across much of the
Mid-Atlantic, a moist and gradually destabilizing airmass is present along/south of the front into NC. A lobe of ascent associated with
the left exit region of a strong upper-level jet and a mid-level
vorticity maximum over the central Appalachians will likely
encourage additional convective development in the next 1-2 hours
across western into central VA. This activity will likely become
organized, with the potential for a mix of small bowing clusters and
supercells possible given the presence of very strong deep-layer
shear.

Instability may tend to remain fairly muted given the widespread
cloud cover. Still, MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg should eventually
develop with continued low-level warming/moistening, and given
steepened mid-level lapse rates noted on the 12Z RNK sounding.
Damaging winds will be possible with any robust cluster that can
develop and track northeastward. A tornado threat should exist with
any supercell, as 0-1 km shear of 35-40 kt and ample effective SRH
should encourage low-level updraft rotation. Isolated hail may also
occur with any convection that can remain semi-discrete. Given
expectations for a gradually increasing severe threat in the next
1-2 hours, watch issuance will probably be needed.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/03/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8eBgt8B0VeHMhYIxmQHokOsiyzGDwSqpeP_gi-WcXj5vTXHceyf1sCsI4oIxNM-aVhRfymzhz= EiRsGtkt7LX-ix865A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON 36407975 36987971 37767885 38757723 38867601 38647503
38337502 37517552 36757638 36127742 36087899 36407975=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 031520
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031520=20
MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-031715-

Mesoscale Discussion 0368
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1020 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024

Areas affected...Portions of northern NC into VA...MD...and DE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 031520Z - 031715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for severe thunderstorms capable of producing
damaging winds, a few tornadoes and perhaps some hail should
gradually increase over the next couple of hours. Watch issuance
will probably be needed.

DISCUSSION...15Z surface observations show a front draped southwest
to northeast across VA into MD/DE, with a surface low centered over
southwest VA. This low is forecast to slowly deepen as it develops northeastward along the front towards central VA/MD by late this
afternoon. Although clouds remain widespread across much of the
Mid-Atlantic, a moist and gradually destabilizing airmass is present along/south of the front into NC. A lobe of ascent associated with
the left exit region of a strong upper-level jet and a mid-level
vorticity maximum over the central Appalachians will likely
encourage additional convective development in the next 1-2 hours
across western into central VA. This activity will likely become
organized, with the potential for a mix of small bowing clusters and
supercells possible given the presence of very strong deep-layer
shear.

Instability may tend to remain fairly muted given the widespread
cloud cover. Still, MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg should eventually
develop with continued low-level warming/moistening, and given
steepened mid-level lapse rates noted on the 12Z RNK sounding.
Damaging winds will be possible with any robust cluster that can
develop and track northeastward. A tornado threat should exist with
any supercell, as 0-1 km shear of 35-40 kt and ample effective SRH
should encourage low-level updraft rotation. Isolated hail may also
occur with any convection that can remain semi-discrete. Given
expectations for a gradually increasing severe threat in the next
1-2 hours, watch issuance will probably be needed.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/03/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4MFIlm8-g8iYQeU_YZqKyqHhRmhY1WFzeJdqdhB9vJmSuuYP6GrEeeZfqsMrNWuL6ACGpz2BE= eJGmNJtYDeaLRKYMoo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON 36407975 36987971 37767885 38757723 38867601 38647503
38337502 37517552 36757638 36127742 36087899 36407975=20


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