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ACUS11 KWNS 310024
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310024=20
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-310200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0364
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0724 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

Areas affected...Far eastern Illinois...southern Indiana...and
portions of west-central Kentucky.

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 81...

Valid 310024Z - 310200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 81
continues.

SUMMARY...A damaging wind threat will continue through the late
evening.

DISCUSSION...The squall line has become less organized over the past
hour across west-central Kentucky, eastern Illinois, and southwest
Indiana with multiple linear segments now apparent on reflectivity.
Despite this seemingly less organized appearance, wind damage
reports have actually increased recently with measured gusts of 73
and 75 mph. This may be due to a deeper mixed airmass with the
warmer temperatures and larger dewpoint depressions storms are
moving into. 80 knot flow is observed around 2km on the HPX VWP and
LCLs are above 2km in eastern portions of watch 81 according to SPC mesoanalysis. Therefore, some of this stronger flow may continue to
mix to the surface with these storms with the potential even for a
significant (75+ mph) wind gust. Eventually, instability should
become too limited to support continued robust convection and
eventual decay is expected. However, in the meantime, the threat for
damaging winds will likely continue.

..Bentley.. 03/31/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sa1XPrFGfHw-NQUb5zg4mNqMZQssg4MG9iFbvFnOMI7TYfotmpa2PXXKJr4p3quYuDEdm6xv$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...

LAT...LON 38848781 39368768 39538661 39368576 38838515 37968512
37428561 36978673 37008727 37148762 37468782 38848781=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 270016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270016=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-270215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0364
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0716 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

Areas affected...northeastern Louisiana into central Mississippi

Concerning...Tornado Watch 88...

Valid 270016Z - 270215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 88 continues.

SUMMARY...Strong storms posing a continuing risk for severe hail
could still consolidate, organize and eventually pose at least some
risk for strong surface gusts will spreading eastward near the
Interstate 20 corridor through 9-10 PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...In the wake of the initial organizing convective
system, a zone of enhanced warm advection above the trailing surface
cold pool is maintaining vigorous convective development. With
modestly steep mid/upper lapse rates being maintained, CAPE for the
moist parcels rooted within this regime remains sizable. Shear
through the convective layer also remains strong, which is
contributing to a continuing risk for severe hail. It is possible
that this activity may gradually consolidate while spreading
eastward near the Interstate 20 corridor, across and east of
Jackson, through 02-03Z. If this occurs, the severe hail threat may
diminish, but activity could organize and eventually pose at least
some risk for strong surface gusts.

..Kerr.. 03/27/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8ZNRIilsnkVVSnhqbmesrgmZD-Wz1YHbEbZGeUHDczjzufSR0nnCpHrLRwPC04r8VPJvDMtNd= rglyosAL19bsLgeKZY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...

LAT...LON 32759159 32919069 33008923 32348928 31839034 32129202
32759159=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 030753
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030753=20
SCZ000-GAZ000-030930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0364
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024

Areas affected...portions of central/eastern Georgia into South
Carolina

Concerning...Tornado Watch 83...84...

Valid 030753Z - 030930Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 83, 84 continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms with an attendant risk for
damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes will continue to shift east
across parts of Georgia and South Carolina through early morning.
Trends being monitored for possible watch issuance downstream from
Tornado Watch 83.

DISCUSSION...Stronger surface pressure falls have been noted over GA
the past couple of hours. This has allowed for some minor backing of
low-level flow ahead of bowing segments from central to eastern GA
and several areas of low-level rotation have been noted over the
past hour. Area VWPs continue to show impressive low-level and deep
shear supporting supercells. Instability remains modest, but
sufficient for a continued severe thunderstorm/tornado risk the next
few hours.

Downstream from Tornado Watch 83 and 84 across portions of southeast
GA into the SC Midlands into the Low Country, vertical shear will
improve with time. However, it is unclear how much further
destabilization will occur with eastward extent. Organized
convection will likely persist toward the coast into the morning
hours, but low-level inhibition and poor lapse rates my limit a more
robust severe risk. Trends will be monitored for possible downstream
watch issuance in the next couple of hours.

..Leitman.. 04/03/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5AoaFhB2U1jY7664FgYZlxm0-e6vYXDJZymiyVuLBJQ1xQPGIsdEzdhCna6_TMS9ArMdoO8gh= R9V_ySvmcoCmgNtvdo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON 33878318 34508196 34778102 34698042 34377998 33678010
32968063 31588202 31438295 31378419 31588484 31768473
32788406 33878318=20


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