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ACUS11 KWNS 301741
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301741=20
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-301945-
Mesoscale Discussion 0355
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022
Areas affected...Southeastern Missouri...far southern
Illinois...western Kentucky
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20
Valid 301741Z - 301945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...An expected increase in storm intensity is expected this
afternoon as stronger mid-level ascent impacts the region. Damaging
wind gusts and tornadoes will be possible. A watch is likely later
this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Cloud cover and earlier precipitation has limited
heating across parts of the mid-Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys.
However, increasing cloud clearing in northeastern Arkansas and
western Tennessee should allow for modest increase in surface
heating this afternoon. Furthermore, an increasing low-level jet has
been noted across Louisiana/Mississippi in regional VAD data as well
as mid-level ascent increasing as the shortwave continues to pivot
northeast. This had led to an increase in convective
intensity/lightning from southern Louisiana into central Arkansas.
These trends are expected to continue farther northward this
afternoon. As this occurs, the potential for damaging winds and
tornadoes will increase from southeastern Missouri into far southern
Illinois and western Kentucky. The primary concern will be
strong/severe wind gusts given the low-level wind magnitude.
Sufficient low-level veering will promote some threat for embedded circulations/tornadoes within the line of storms. A watch is likely
this afternoon for these areas.
..Wendt/Hart.. 03/30/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sjth_cbPukrprC5Lh1r0dqCkdic6dtZ4Q4MdYuk_dGT4DH45yMjqv0Uf3D4kSmqBPwdvjuEK$=
for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...
LAT...LON 36939068 37739005 38788820 38888709 38438669 37738671
36958691 36608932 36569058 36939068=20
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