• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0353

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, March 30, 2022 14:45:16
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    ACUS11 KWNS 301445
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 301444=20
    ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-301645-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0353
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0944 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

    Areas affected...Parts of northeastern Arkansas into southeastern
    Missouri and southern Illinois

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 301444Z - 301645Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms may spread across the region
    into early afternoon accompanied by at least some risk for strong
    surface gusts. While it is not certain that a new severe weather
    watch will be needed in the near term, trends will continue to be
    monitored for this possibility.

    DISCUSSION...A second area of organized thunderstorm development,
    associated with another possible mesoscale convective vortex, is in
    the process of spreading across and northeast of the Ozark Plateau,
    and appears likely to continue across the Mississippi River vicinity
    south of St. Louis through 17-19Z. Breaks/thin spots in the
    overcast ahead of this convection may allow for at least weak
    insolation, and Rapid Refresh forecast soundings suggest that the boundary-layer will become increasingly well-mixed beneath the
    50-60+ kt southerly 850 jet. This may preclude a substantive further
    increase from current surface dew points in the upper 50s to near
    60F, and generally weak lapse rates through the mid/upper
    troposphere are forecast to allow for only very CAPE as large-scale
    ascent weakens mid-level inhibition.=20=20

    Thus, despite the presence of large clockwise-curved low-level
    hodographs and strong deep-layer shear, which are potentially
    conducive to considerable severe weather potential, this threat
    appears limited in the near term. However, given the boundary-layer
    mixing expected during the next couple of hours, the downward
    transfer of higher momentum to the surface may be enhanced by
    remnant convection overspreading the region.

    ..Kerr/Hart.. 03/30/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uoUf8bNN9fZIXoDmkmxzP-KHxbSWBAHnefLCgZCAf3W1qZXvCEWaOl_58e2evCI-L1jQQHCE$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

    LAT...LON 36859197 37759118 38339021 38138874 36988930 36458977
    35999028 35549126 35769197 36399222 36859197=20



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, March 26, 2023 14:29:49
    ACUS11 KWNS 261429
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 261429=20
    GAZ000-ALZ000-261600-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0353
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0929 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

    Areas affected...South-central Alabama...Central Georgia

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 85...

    Valid 261429Z - 261600Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 85 continues.

    SUMMARY...Long corridor of intense thunderstorms will continue to
    pose a risk of isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts.

    DISCUSSION...Recent radar loops continue to show numerous intense
    thunderstorms extending along a corridor from southwest MS, across south-central AL, into much of central GA. While this activity
    produced numerous reports of severe hail before dawn, there have
    been few reports in the past 2-3 hours. The environment to the
    south of the activity remains favorable for large hail, with steep
    mid-level lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell
    structures. However, satellite and radar trends all suggest an
    overall weakening trend to the storms. This lull in severe threat
    may persist through the rest of the morning. Nevertheless, given
    the conditional risk of severe re-development, will maintain the
    ongoing watch(es).

    ..Hart.. 03/26/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9UM9gqeL0UJM4Qa9eMr528sJKp4x8or3pg5HGQsiSmQXdGMgz_rN-aOXhkrY8GpaOnp6W49Ip= zNg7DfL_p7vID99qRM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CAE...FFC...BMX...MOB...

    LAT...LON 32238825 32868568 33398231 33008189 32578326 32068670
    31698806 31878843 32238825=20


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