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ACUS11 KWNS 301445
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301444=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-301645-
Mesoscale Discussion 0353
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0944 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022
Areas affected...Parts of northeastern Arkansas into southeastern
Missouri and southern Illinois
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20
Valid 301444Z - 301645Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms may spread across the region
into early afternoon accompanied by at least some risk for strong
surface gusts. While it is not certain that a new severe weather
watch will be needed in the near term, trends will continue to be
monitored for this possibility.
DISCUSSION...A second area of organized thunderstorm development,
associated with another possible mesoscale convective vortex, is in
the process of spreading across and northeast of the Ozark Plateau,
and appears likely to continue across the Mississippi River vicinity
south of St. Louis through 17-19Z. Breaks/thin spots in the
overcast ahead of this convection may allow for at least weak
insolation, and Rapid Refresh forecast soundings suggest that the boundary-layer will become increasingly well-mixed beneath the
50-60+ kt southerly 850 jet. This may preclude a substantive further
increase from current surface dew points in the upper 50s to near
60F, and generally weak lapse rates through the mid/upper
troposphere are forecast to allow for only very CAPE as large-scale
ascent weakens mid-level inhibition.=20=20
Thus, despite the presence of large clockwise-curved low-level
hodographs and strong deep-layer shear, which are potentially
conducive to considerable severe weather potential, this threat
appears limited in the near term. However, given the boundary-layer
mixing expected during the next couple of hours, the downward
transfer of higher momentum to the surface may be enhanced by
remnant convection overspreading the region.
..Kerr/Hart.. 03/30/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uoUf8bNN9fZIXoDmkmxzP-KHxbSWBAHnefLCgZCAf3W1qZXvCEWaOl_58e2evCI-L1jQQHCE$=
for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...
LAT...LON 36859197 37759118 38339021 38138874 36988930 36458977
35999028 35549126 35769197 36399222 36859197=20
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