• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0352

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, March 30, 2022 14:03:51
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    ACUS11 KWNS 301403
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 301403=20
    INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-301600-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0352
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0903 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

    Areas affected...Parts of southeastern and east central Missouri and
    southern into northeastern Illinois

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 301403Z - 301600Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms will overspread the region
    through 11 AM to Noon, accompanied by at least some risk for
    localized, potentially damaging wind gusts. It appears unlikely that
    a severe weather watch will be needed, but trends will continue to
    be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...Downstream of a vigorous mid-level short wave trough
    gradually pivoting in negatively tilted fashion across the southern
    Great Plains, models suggest that strong pre-cold frontal southerly
    low-level flow will continue to develop north-northeastward across
    the middle Mississippi Valley, toward the southern Lake Michigan
    vicinity through 16-17Z. This includes speeds strengthening to
    50-60+ kt around 850 mb .

    One area of organized convective development coinciding with this
    low-level jet is currently spreading through the lower Missouri
    Valley. This appears focused near a remnant mesoscale convective
    vortex and may persist in some fashion into midday, northeastward
    toward the Chicago area.=20=20

    Although the boundary-layer is still generally cool and stable
    across much of central through northern Illinois, models do suggest
    that it will destabilize with low-level thermal and moisture
    advection in advance of the convection. Although extensive cloud
    cover will limit insolation, and lapse rates will only become very
    weakly unstable with minimal CAPE, downward mixing of the strong
    environment wind fields may contribute to sporadic severe wind
    gusts.

    ..Kerr/Hart.. 03/30/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ubN-InKa3gZYspTkyxb2445_MnJW1VVecH2Wi8s-EEZ80e8_q2e9T8rnTkswuf8ufMaIq1rc$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

    LAT...LON 38929080 41208868 40768743 38868859 38158907 37928996
    38239094 38929080=20



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, March 26, 2023 13:43:51
    ACUS11 KWNS 261343
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 261343=20
    NCZ000-SCZ000-261545-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0352
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0843 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

    Areas affected...Eastern South Carolina...Southeast North Carolina

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 261343Z - 261545Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms currently affecting central SC will track
    eastward into eastern SC and southeast NC this morning. While
    isolated cells may produce hail, it is uncertain whether storms will
    warrant a watch. Trends are being monitored.

    DISCUSSION...Radar loops show numerous strong/severe storms
    extending from the CAE area westward into north-central GA. These
    storms have resulted in several reports of large hail overnight.=20
    The subtle southwesterly low-level jet max that has helped to
    sustain this activity is shifting eastward and will result in storms
    building into discussion area by late morning. Mid-level lapse
    rates are steep, and combined with ample low-level moisture and
    favorable shear profiles, there is a risk of supercell structures
    capable of large hail. However, recent trends in IR cloud tops,
    MESH cores, and unfavorable time-of-day all lend uncertainty whether
    storms will maintain robust severe threat in the short-term. Trends
    will be monitored for whether a new watch will be needed.

    ..Hart/Guyer.. 03/26/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5IfeNfQNM-oQNfQ5y4lXslmi-oQ2wb9q-t34IXRor9M7UCmYR6pAbMaw8QHHy8e-oAh8sN702= 3TyAPp3rSiPV41C9sQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...

    LAT...LON 34298054 34677874 34487726 34107718 33417840 33167921
    33748041 34298054=20


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