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ACUS11 KWNS 301403
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301403=20
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-301600-
Mesoscale Discussion 0352
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0903 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022
Areas affected...Parts of southeastern and east central Missouri and
southern into northeastern Illinois
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 301403Z - 301600Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms will overspread the region
through 11 AM to Noon, accompanied by at least some risk for
localized, potentially damaging wind gusts. It appears unlikely that
a severe weather watch will be needed, but trends will continue to
be monitored.
DISCUSSION...Downstream of a vigorous mid-level short wave trough
gradually pivoting in negatively tilted fashion across the southern
Great Plains, models suggest that strong pre-cold frontal southerly
low-level flow will continue to develop north-northeastward across
the middle Mississippi Valley, toward the southern Lake Michigan
vicinity through 16-17Z. This includes speeds strengthening to
50-60+ kt around 850 mb .
One area of organized convective development coinciding with this
low-level jet is currently spreading through the lower Missouri
Valley. This appears focused near a remnant mesoscale convective
vortex and may persist in some fashion into midday, northeastward
toward the Chicago area.=20=20
Although the boundary-layer is still generally cool and stable
across much of central through northern Illinois, models do suggest
that it will destabilize with low-level thermal and moisture
advection in advance of the convection. Although extensive cloud
cover will limit insolation, and lapse rates will only become very
weakly unstable with minimal CAPE, downward mixing of the strong
environment wind fields may contribute to sporadic severe wind
gusts.
..Kerr/Hart.. 03/30/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ubN-InKa3gZYspTkyxb2445_MnJW1VVecH2Wi8s-EEZ80e8_q2e9T8rnTkswuf8ufMaIq1rc$=
for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 38929080 41208868 40768743 38868859 38158907 37928996
38239094 38929080=20
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