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ACUS11 KWNS 300958
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300957=20
ARZ000-LAZ000-MOZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-301200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0351
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0457 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

Areas affected...Northeast Texas...Far Eastern Oklahoma...Western
and Central Arkansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 74...

Valid 300957Z - 301200Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 74 continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for tornadoes, wind damage and large hail will
continue this morning across parts of the Arklatex and Ozarks. The
severe threat should impact areas to the east of the current watch
and new weather watch issuance will likely be needed.

DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a large area of
rain with embedded thunderstorms ongoing from far southwest Missouri
across eastern Oklahoma and into northeast Texas. The airmass to the
east across the Arklatex and Ozarks is weakly unstable with MLCAPE
estimated by the RAP in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. The airmass is
uncapped and a 50 to 65 knot low-level jet is analyzed near the Red
River in Northeast Texas. This low-level jet will continue to slowly
strengthen through day break, maintaining moisture advection and
increasing lift. This will support the convective line as it moves
eastward across the Arklatex and Ozarks over the next 3 to 4 hours.
In addition, the WSR-88D VWP at Shreveport shows a looped hodograph
with 0-3 Km storm relative helicity near 675 m2/s2. As a result,
isolated supercells associated with wind damage and large hail will
be possible, and a brief tornado may occur. For this reason, a new
weather watch will likely be needed as most of the convective line
approaches the eastern edge of WW 74 over the next hour.

..Broyles/Edwards.. 03/30/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tOXXo9xE9EaxEf6JS4AyFZtu-lxN27BgVYn-vTk6qGR_uSYYkwfn27v1FAEQFmtXe5PfcttV$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 36529340 36459392 36149442 35129498 33769582 32509662
31939666 31699634 31839547 32169404 32909312 34399236
36209183 36529340=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 261233
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261232=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-261300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0351
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

Areas affected...parts of central and southern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 83...

Valid 261232Z - 261300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 83
continues.

SUMMARY...Stronger storms have shifted east of WW 83, with severe
risk now diminished in the short term. WW 83 will be allowed to
expire at 26/13Z.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows that the last remaining severe
storm that was moving through southeastern portions of WW 83 has
moved into Alabama, into newly issued Tornado Watch 85. Remaining
convection across the WW is sub-severe, and should remain that way
this morning.

Later, additional severe storms are expected to evolve across this
region. However, risk should remain sufficiently low for the next
several hours such that an additional WW issuance is not required,
upon the scheduled expiration of WW 83.

..Goss.. 03/26/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8y9-hRoUlkeGPChybCXthaXLStJ4OCJ5-PX7RbSYbm_j9YPiEBkez2Vjloi3M13G2nCDYyIZ8= rV1nbDCamAzINMaHec$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON 31748999 32678848 31978836 31808869 31748999=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 021929
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021928=20
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-022100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0351
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024

Areas affected...Portions of far southern IL into western/northern KY...southern IN...and southwestern OH

Concerning...Tornado Watch 75...76...

Valid 021928Z - 022100Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 75, 76 continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms moving across western Kentucky and southern
Indiana should continue to pose some severe risk this afternoon.
Downstream watch issuance will eventually be needed. Tornadoes,
large hail, and damaging winds all appear possible. A strong tornado
may also occur with any supercell that can be sustained.

DISCUSSION...Convection has generally struggled to intensify this
afternoon in far southern IL/western KY along a pre-frontal
trough/wind shift line. Still, the airmass downstream is attempting
to destabilize in the wake of earlier convection across parts of
northern KY and southern IN. Visible satellite imagery shows some
clearing across this area, with surface temperatures gradually
warming into the 70s in the vicinity of the Ohio River. The
low-level airmass is also slowly moistening as the outflow boundary
from morning thunderstorms becomes less well defined, with surface
dewpoints rising into the mid to upper 60s. Enhanced deep-layer
shear of 50-60 kt will support supercells with associated hail
threat, if any can develop ahead of the ongoing cluster. Otherwise,
favorable low-level shear, with effective SRH around 250-300 m2/s2,
will also foster a tornado risk assuming robust thunderstorms can be
sustained. A strong tornado appears possible given the strength of
the low-level flow/shear shown in recent VWPs from KLVX. Damaging
winds remain a possibility with any small clusters. Given current
observational trends and gradual destabilization occurring
downstream of the ongoing activity, a downstream Tornado Watch into
parts of central KY, southern IN, and southwestern OH will likely be
needed before the scheduled 20Z expiration of WW 75.

..Gleason.. 04/02/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4gKqWnagluc6kVrERHzKNKwvWaJBCk4jNxeBZQjBDnPlHT9nVYGT2dsJDQxsv3O0dWZJ_hKt_= ETc-Bk4-5vB79ib68Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON 38058774 38998711 39328656 39608544 39638422 39128378
38558394 37968431 37498472 36918625 36858829 37358861
38058774=20


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