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ACUS11 KWNS 300228
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300228=20
WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-300630-

Mesoscale Discussion 0347
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0928 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

Areas affected...Northern Wisconsin and the far western Upper
Peninsula of Michigan.

Concerning...Freezing rain=20

Valid 300228Z - 300630Z

SUMMARY...Expect freezing rain, and possibly thunderstorms, to
develop in the next 1 to 2 hours.

DISCUSSION...A broad region of warm air advection showers and
thunderstorms is lifting north through Wisconsin. Currently,
temperatures are mostly at or above freezing where convection has
occurred, but dewpoints are quite dry which should yield some
evaporative cooling and cause temperatures to drop below freezing.
Forecast soundings show a thermal profile favorable for freezing
rain and potentially thunderstorms continuing into the overnight
period. The best chance for greater freezing rain accumulation will
likely be across northern Wisconsin where temperatures are already
below freezing with dewpoints in the 5 to 15F range. This should
lead to temperatures dropping into the mid to upper 20s once
precipitation begins. These temperatures, combined with moderate
surface winds should create an environment favorable for ice
accretion. Locally higher ice accumulation is likely in any areas of thunderstorms.

..Bentley.. 03/30/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!v2ANg00zJevKl_dKsk7TQGYrKLwRDqP0B32oc5mvQ-uOxz4iwQ2WVtnE60_Gpa8LpnJROZ5Y$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON 45249234 45789251 46329217 46669082 46038816 45278693
44278729 43878756 43938861 44028956 44439067 44809170
45069210 45249234=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 260849
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260849=20
NCZ000-261045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0347
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

Areas affected...eastern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 260849Z - 261045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Local severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail -- will
exist over the next few hours across parts of eastern North
Carolina. The expected isolated -- and largely marginal -- nature
of the threat suggests that WW issuance will likely not be needed.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows isolated convection having
increased in intensity somewhat over the past hour across eastern
portions of North Carolina, near and ahead of the surface cold
front.

The pre-frontal warm sector -- featuring 500 to 1500 J/kg
mixed-layer CAPE -- will support a continuation of storms, as they
gradually shift eastward and eventually move offshore over the next
few hours. Until then, strong/unidirectional westerly flow aloft is
supporting shear supportive of organized updrafts/mid-level
rotation, which will permit a continuation of local severe potential
-- mainly in the form of marginally severe hail.

..Goss/Grams.. 03/26/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5EJjCOFfWfu9Tw6TZo_R6QWrXex1AMQAbSXJt9eC4e9QTtnfENAFM1exaW9s80K7lH3VBPFub= _9UghHQF8FRmeOWeMw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON 36037560 35337569 34727651 34507771 34657878 35097927
35827729 36457627 36037560=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 021649
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021648=20
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-021845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0347
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024

Areas affected...Portions of southeastern MO...southern IL...western
KY...and extreme southwestern IN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 021648Z - 021845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Once thunderstorms develop along/ahead of a cold front,
they will quickly become severe, which will likely warrant watch
issuance.

DISCUSSION...Cu is gradually becoming more agitated along a surface
wind shift line across southeastern MO, and convective initiation
appears likely within the next hour or so. The airmass downstream
has become at least weakly unstable, with surface temperatures
warming into the mid 70s, with surface dewpoints also increasing
into the mid to upper 60s. Corresponding MLCAPE generally ranges
from 500-1000 J/kg at the moment, but continued daytime heating of
this moist airmass should allow for additional destabilization
through the afternoon. Very strong effective bulk shear of 50-60+ kt
will easily support supercells with associated threat for large
hail. Damaging winds will also be possible with any clusters that
can consolidate along the wind shift line and spread eastward. The
tornado threat remains somewhat unclear, particularly with northward
extent into southern IL/IN where the airmass is still attempting to destabilize. Regardless, recent VWPs from KPAH/KVWX show ample
low-level shear present to support updraft rotation and some risk
for tornadoes with any supercells that can be sustained. Watch
issuance will likely be needed once convective initiation appears
imminent.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/02/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7Gws1yWJtUoj-0tuRktY9CPKom_fqVV3b2I-EsVJkT7bJbI96cQMVijLGAYEUchxMM6J6m__d= KxaSydM2KCnaS9ErIM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...

LAT...LON 36949026 38038938 38408876 38358802 37758770 37218770
36628898 36689000 36949026=20


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