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ACUS11 KWNS 300123
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300122=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-300245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0346
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0822 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

Areas affected...Southern and southeast Kansas into far northern
Oklahoma.

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 70...

Valid 300122Z - 300245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 70
continues.

SUMMARY...A line of storms is expected to strengthen over the next
hour.

DISCUSSION...Composite radar has shown increasing/strengthening
convection across southern Kansas into far northern Oklahoma along
and east of the dryline. This increase in convective intensity is
likely a result of the continued destabilization and the
strengthening low-level jet. As of 01Z, SPC mesoanalysis shows
MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg focused on northern Oklahoma and
southern Kansas. Expect this convection to organize into a line with
an increasing threat for damaging winds and possibly a few QLCS
tornadoes through the late evening and into the early overnight
hours as the line moves through southern Kansas and northern
Oklahoma.

..Bentley.. 03/30/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pWwW1YRgjcXMuP165Lx3NUe3JOUduN44n8TD0fKWu5ExWjktTwawV4vmZVluDrq_SV-ea7Dm$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON 36719886 37259846 37959764 38169736 38379643 38379534
37989499 37499535 36849594 36609692 36579793 36719886=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 260656
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260655=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-260900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0346
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

Areas affected...central and southern Mississippi into parts of
southeastern Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 260655Z - 260900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Severe risk is expected to gradually increase across
central and southern Mississippi and adjacent parts of southeastern
Louisiana over the next few hours. WW issuance may be required.

DISCUSSION...As a zone of weak ascent -- evident in latest water
vapor loop over the Arklatex vicinity at this time -- continues
shifting eastward, some northward retreat of a remnant baroclinic
zone over southern Mississippi/southern Louisiana is expected. The
ascent -- focused in the vicinity of this front -- will likely
support at least isolated storm development over the next several
hours.=20=20

Latest model data and RAP-based objective analysis reveals a
moderately unstable environment, owing to a very moist low-level
airmass beneath steep lapse rates through most of the lower and
middle troposphere. This combined with relatively strong mid-level west-southwesterlies suggests that any storms which do develop would
have the potential to organize into supercells -- with large hail a
primary concern. We will continue to monitor the latest data for
signs of imminent updraft development, with an eye toward possible
WW issuance.

..Goss/Grams.. 03/26/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4QpmzNm5COmMzbqSK_0vKWxIht3dwK5SBuLcoxlT15sR9ssS72YSF59LNvzWsoaaiUMggT3Ao= PzQ2A-qnaT5nODlpiQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 30649160 32209084 32768944 32938812 32028813 31208810
30259005 30139119 30649160=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 021613
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021612=20
VAZ000-WVZ000-021715-

Mesoscale Discussion 0346
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024

Areas affected...Portions of southeastern WV into western VA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 74...

Valid 021612Z - 021715Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 74 continues.

SUMMARY...A compact, bowing cluster should gradually weaken as it
moves into western Virginia this afternoon. Downstream watch
issuance is not expected at this time.

DISCUSSION...It appears that the small, compact cluster/bow that has
produced multiple measured severe wind gusts and damage reports
across WV is slowly weakening as it encounters a less unstable and
increasingly hostile thermodynamic environment in far southeastern
WV and western VA. While strong/gusty winds and occasional damage
will remain possible in the short term given the cluster's continued organization, downstream watch issuance is not currently expected
into western VA.

..Gleason.. 04/02/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_e-N2rqkzU-MbeDVxNH8ypJjz9UNA0KT6B8tYGQxqTWmLWLgwvHQpvduLBHR_HL-bP70FcdlC= FlUJzDVHpIMzk7mGKg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...RLX...

LAT...LON 37818101 37978066 38458026 38547968 38397910 38137894
37607890 37347914 37307972 37458055 37818101=20


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