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ACUS11 KWNS 300110
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300110=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-300245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0345
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0810 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

Areas affected...Western Oklahoma and Northwest Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 72...

Valid 300110Z - 300245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 72
continues.

SUMMARY...Convection should gradually increase across ww72. Damaging
winds are the primary near-term threat.

DISCUSSION...Latest satellite imagery suggests large-scale forcing
for ascent is now spreading into the southern High Plains, per
expanding mid-level cloud deck across the TX South Plains into the
southern TX Panhandle. As mid-levels cool near the dryline, CINH
should continue to weaken and a gradual increase in convection is
expected over the next few hours. While 00z sounding from OUN was
quite capped, this profile should become more favorable for deep
convection over the next few hours. Current thinking is a broken
line of increasingly forced convection should gradually advance east
across the remainder of ww72 later this evening.

..Darrow.. 03/30/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qO7yx6DijrhrL55MF40SZejmLQJvM_HYXFbLhLi5VEh2Tox7V5lm9ajC8V87l7se3viq2BCy$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...LUB...

LAT...LON 33450015 36989832 36979615 33469806 33450015=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 021558
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021558=20
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-021830-

Mesoscale Discussion 0345
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1058 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024

Areas affected...Portions of far eastern IL...extreme northern
KY...and southern/central IN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 021558Z - 021830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A gradually increasing severe hail threat should exist
with slowly intensifying thunderstorms across southern Indiana and
vicinity. The damaging wind and tornado threat remain less clear,
but some risk may eventually develop this afternoon. Trends will be
monitored for possible watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Convection has been gradually increasing in coverage
over the past hour or so across southern IN and vicinity. This
activity is largely tied to pronounced ascent associated with a very
strong southwesterly mid/upper-level jet. Most of these
thunderstorms are currently elevated, and located to the north of an
outflow boundary related to earlier morning convection now in WV.
Still, visible satellite and surface observation trends show
attempts at low-level moisture returning northward ahead of these
thunderstorms and filtered daytime heating across parts of
southern/central IN. While MUCAPE remains weak at the moment,
instability and deep-layer shear are both forecast to increase
through the afternoon as a northern and southern-stream shortwave
trough phase over the Midwest. This should support a threat for
supercells capable of producing mainly severe hail initially. The
risk for damaging winds and tornadoes this afternoon will be
dependent on whether sufficient low-level moistening/warming will
occur to support truly surface-based convection. Regardless of this
continued uncertainty with instability, the gradually increasing
severe threat over the next few hours may eventually prompt watch
issuance.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/02/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4KypqA0VUvHMQ79W2osofj-5O4t6FGDPg0KK1d66-NjETk5DuQDFsnYa5yUx977IryloNzJYC= xvzYtjDki9ydPSyuiQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...

LAT...LON 37778803 37938850 38648844 39058804 39398743 40148624
40118503 39268486 38738537 37928666 37798721 37778803=20


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