• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0344

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, March 30, 2022 00:51:15
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    ACUS11 KWNS 300051
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 300050=20
    MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-300215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0344
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0750 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

    Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska...southwest Iowa...eastern
    Kansas...and far western Missouri.

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 70...71...

    Valid 300050Z - 300215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 70, 71
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe weather threat is increasing through the
    evening.

    DISCUSSION...There has been an increase in convective
    coverage/intensity over the past hour. This corresponds with the
    increase in low-level flow as observed by the EAX VWP. The
    convective line has become better organized across eastern Kansas
    which may lead to an increasing severe wind threat over the next 1
    to 2 hours as this line approaches Kansas City. In addition, the
    low-level shear profile may support a QLCS threat during this same
    period. These storms will eventually move east of the better
    low-level moisture which should limit the severe threat further into
    Missouri. Therefore, watch 70 may need to be locally extended 1 or 2
    counties, but a new downstream watch is likely not needed.

    ..Bentley/Guyer.. 03/30/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vEBiy6cmQ_geV30aQT20ll8fBWASVDzUp0I_nyHz9146Ajmw6XIA_oxF4xu2CqJdY-jsTEHI$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

    LAT...LON 40559600 41099557 41179471 40069408 38809409 38259445
    38059524 37939612 37989669 38139694 38479692 38839642
    39399602 39949579 40559600=20



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, March 26, 2023 03:41:12
    ACUS11 KWNS 260341
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 260340=20
    ALZ000-MSZ000-260615-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0344
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1040 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023

    Areas affected...parts of southern into central Alabama

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 260340Z - 260615Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Rapid, sustained strong thunderstorm development
    accompanied by increasing severe weather potential, mainly in the
    form of hail which could become sizable, appears possible overnight.
    This could commence as early as 1-3 AM CDT, and a severe weather
    watch may be needed.

    DISCUSSION...Low-level flow is backing from westerly/southwesterly
    to more of a southerly component and modestly strengthening across
    the north central Gulf coast vicinity. This is allowing for
    boundary-layer moisture return across the coastal plain from
    southeastern Louisiana through southern Alabama, where deepening
    convection has been evident along the low-level confluence zone near
    the leading edge of this regime since prior to sunset. This is
    occurring beneath steep lapse rates associated with daytime
    boundary-layer heating and deep mixing, which occurred to the south
    of a stalling frontal zone across northern portions of the Gulf
    Coast states into the Great Plains.

    Destabilization associated with the moistening recently became
    sufficient to support short-lived thunderstorm development west of
    Montgomery, AL. However, large-scale forcing for ascent remains
    weak and, based on model forecast soundings, ongoing mid-level warm
    advection may maintain substantial inhibition tending to suppress
    sustained thunderstorm initiation for at least several more hours.

    With time though, as mid/upper 60s F dew points begin to underrun
    the northern periphery of the more strongly capping warmer air
    aloft, initially scattered sustained thunderstorm development
    appears increasingly probable. Once this occurs, intensification
    may be rapid with mixed-layer CAPE forecast to increase in excess of
    2000 J/kg. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, beneath 50+
    kt west-southwesterly 500 mb flow, the environment may become
    conducive to supercells capable of producing sizable hail. While
    low-level hodographs probably will remain modest to weak, stronger
    storms may pose at least some risk for producing a tornado, in
    addition to locally strong surface gusts.

    Given the subtle nature of the mid/upper support, within flow that
    may only very gradually transition from broadly anticyclonic to
    cyclonic overnight, the timing of the more sustained, increasing
    storm development remains unclear. Various model output has
    suggested that this could commence as early as 06-08Z, but seems to
    be trending toward a bit later overnight.

    ..Kerr/Thompson.. 03/26/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-9Sq2f1Ahq6h6A8A11XD8-qMEzE4i3CZhaMe0P4AJ02RjWvsPSmWa2NsrCRFGo9Wghek8vi2O= W2tnlJG_geesDyR-GA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

    LAT...LON 31428832 31118937 31239033 32138904 32448799 32748669
    33008534 32398503 32238567 31798697 31428832=20


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