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ACUS11 KWNS 292010
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292010=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-292215-
Mesoscale Discussion 0338
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0310 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022
Areas affected...portions of northwest and north-central OK into
central KS and far southeast NE
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20
Valid 292010Z - 292215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop across central
Kansas and perhaps northwest or north-central OK by 23z. A watch
will likely be needed for parts of this area in the next couple of
hours. Damaging wind gusts and hail are the main hazards expected
with this activity, though a tornado or two also is possible.
DISCUSSION...Cumulus continues to increase this afternoon behind the
surface dryline from the OK/TX Panhandles/western OK into southwest
KS, indicative of increasing ascent spreading eastward into the
Plains. A surface low is positioned near Harlan County NE near the
KS/NE border. A dryline extends south/southwest from the low across
central KS into western OK. Strong capping is still evident east of
the dryline in latest mesoanalysis data and in cloud presentation in
visible satellite. 18z RAOB from OUN also continues to show a stout
capping inversion around 850-700 mb. However, very steep midlevel
lapse rates near 9 C/km were noted. Additionally, a modest but
favorably curved low-level hodographs, becoming elongated above 3km
was also present.=20
Southerly low-level flow will continue a warm advection regime ahead
of the dryline and a broad area of 56-60 F surface dewpoints are in
place across central/northern OK into south-central/southeast KS
(diminishing with northward extent). As stronger ascent spreads
eastward over the next few hours, high-based convection is expected
to develop near the dryline from northwest OK into central KS.
Convective coverage will likely increase more quickly across KS as
the dryline is overtaken by a southeastward-surging cold front over
western KS as of 1930z, before increasing later this evening further
south across OK. Initial semi-discrete supercells are possible and
may produce large hail and damaging gusts. Convection is expected to
grow upscale rather quickly as the low-level jet strengthens this
evening, bringing an attendant increase in damaging wind potential
with eastward extent. While modest boundary-layer moisture will
result in higher-based convection, low-level shear does support
rotation and a tornado or two may be possible as well. A watch will
likely be needed for portions of the MCD area by around 22z.
..Leitman/Hart.. 03/29/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!o980llQ4M0BcB0qSWkGKCFWFYnA_H577FfQUF4YP3Pa9zC1WHHbfs3nf7GQhl4UjfRX2ZtOY$=
for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...
LAT...LON 36009789 36019838 36079871 36209886 36339895 36599900
37509872 38749827 40009773 40089765 40259743 40369705
40369673 40259618 40099588 39849562 39389551 38989555
38379571 37499622 36659682 36209747 36009789=20
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