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ACUS11 KWNS 070103
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070103=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-070200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0211
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0703 PM CST Sun Mar 06 2022

Areas affected...western and northern Arkansas and southern Missouri

Concerning...Tornado Watch 33...

Valid 070103Z - 070200Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 33 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe weather risk -- including tornado potential --
continues across WW 33, and will extend beyond the scheduled 07/02Z
expiration of this watch. A new WW will be required within the
hour.

DISCUSSION...The kinematic environment across western and northern
Arkansas and adjacent southern Missouri remains supportive of
severe/supercell storms, though a slight warm nose evident in the
07/00Z has likely contributed to somewhat limited storm coverage
thus far. At this time, a supercell moving northeastward at 35 kt
across Stone and Izard counties in north-central Arkansas remains
the most substantial short-term risk, though the storm has at least
temporarily weakened a bit, and does not currently appear to be
imminently tornadic.

Still, as ascent increases in tandem with the strengthening
low-level jet/warm advection, some cooling aloft should assist in
improving the thermodynamic environment -- leading to an increase in
convective coverage with time. While additional/isolated
pre-frontal storms may occur, an eventual frontal line/band is
expected to ultimately evolve, and shift across Arkansas and
adjacent southern Missouri later this evening. Given the tornado
potential -- especially with isolated/pre-frontal storms over the
next few hours, risk warrants new tornado watch issuance.

..Goss.. 03/07/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sugr-hLHGX23Tv7tYsAIBK6ZF7Y1CtCednR6cbklY1a0VYXqbw7vSAC1jE8Ef265GuRRdZ1u$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON 35489436 36439364 36889180 36918987 36058976 34759308
34719442 35489436=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 281818
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281818=20
SDZ000-NDZ000-282245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0211
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023

Areas affected...Parts of northern South Dakota and
south-central/southeast North Dakota

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 281818Z - 282245Z

SUMMARY...A band of snow is likely to develop within the North
Dakota/South Dakota border vicinity. A combination of frontal ascent
and convective enhancement will promote snowfall rates of around 1
inch per hour this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Light snowfall is evident within central/southeast
North Dakota, likely associated with a mid-level boundary. Water
vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough in the northern Rockies.
Subtle areas of ascent are noted ahead of this trough, one of which
is contributing to precipitation moving north/northeast from central
South Dakota. With time, the approach of the trough should increase
ascent along the mid-level boundary and lead to increased snowfall
rates, primarily in parts of southern North Dakota. Visible
satellite shows some convective elements embedded within the South
Dakota precipitation and forecast soundings suggest cloud-top
instability will be present into North Dakota as well. Snowfall
rates of around an inch per hour are possible, particularly where
some convective enhancement occurs.

..Wendt.. 02/28/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9gVj8pkeNYW-tYv4t3XMId8h6H3UnXgOSLDFmok3Ry4b4ixa19i-i3PGFVuO2DlItj84hgEib= -FV2c6GW1qGBu0GorI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 45619951 45709993 45910070 46300141 46930158 47490061
47439871 46789794 46159768 45909768 45699813 45619951=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 091638
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091637=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-091800-

Mesoscale Discussion 0211
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1037 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024

Areas affected...FL Panhandle into south GA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 34...

Valid 091637Z - 091800Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 34 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for a brief tornado or two and locally damaging
gusts will persist into early afternoon.

DISCUSSION...The character of an ongoing QLCS has changed somewhat
over the last 1-2 hours from parts of the FL Panhandle into south
GA, with some increasing tendency toward embedded supercell
structures noted from the FL/GA border to north of Valdosta. While
the KVAX VWP indicates some modest weakening of low-level flow, both
low-level and deep-layer shear remain quite favorable for organized
convection. Meanwhile, some diurnal heating has been noted across
north FL into far south GA, with temperatures rising into the upper
70s to near 80F. This heating of a richly moist low-level airmass is
supporting MLCAPE increasing to near or above 1000 J/kg, despite
generally weak midlevel lapse rates.=20

Given the favorable environment, some threat for a tornado or two
and locally damaging gusts will likely persist into early afternoon,
both with the ongoing storm cluster near the FL/GA border, and with
any other embedded supercells that can become sustained. There has
also been some increase in convective showers ahead of the ongoing
storm cluster, and at least a transient supercell or two could
emerge out of this area as well. Some expansion of the WW 34 into a
larger portion of northeast FL may be needed if any of the warm
sector convection begins to mature.

..Dean/Smith.. 03/09/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-e0Y551fvO7tIxCnDdWez5nyySi77pYZ4PoKwhzbEUqo1qKZ-J_4aN_pPWdah74pcS0oOqrdk= I1F-VUw5yKlzuFMb-s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 29908598 31208333 31678183 31598135 30338140 29968248
29758402 29788428 29638507 29658536 29908598=20


=3D =3D =3D
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