• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0328

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, March 23, 2022 20:36:12
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    ACUS11 KWNS 232036
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 232035=20
    PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-232230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0328
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0335 PM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022

    Areas affected...Southeast Ohio...western West Virginia...far
    southwestern Pennsylvania

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 67...

    Valid 232035Z - 232230Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 67 continues.

    SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging winds remain possible with
    supercell thunderstorms in West Virginia and southeast Ohio. The
    tornado threat will be greatest along the West Virginia/Ohio border
    with more limited potential to the south and east.

    DISCUSSION...Supercell thunderstorms continue to move northeastward
    into West Virginia from Kentucky. These storms will remain capable
    of large hail and damaging wind gusts. KPBZ and KRLX VAD winds
    continue to show 200-300 m2/s2 SRH which will continue to support
    some threat for tornadoes. At present, the greatest potential for a
    tornado over the next 1-2 hours will be along the West Virginia and
    Ohio border. The storm near Point Pleasant will continue northeast
    where temperatures are in the mid 70s F and dewpoints in the mid 50s
    F. Another severe storm south of Charleston will also progress into
    a similar environment in the short term. However, temperatures
    farther downstream are cooler and stable boundary-layer clouds are
    evident on visible satellite. The tornado threat with this southern
    storm will likely be shorter in duration.

    ..Wendt.. 03/23/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!szU3Lohp2_8rhaOQj7c75eA44JC9F401LdcGVvvf6CUvt2eekveYT1yIlT0yUuwimU0to8Xj$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...

    LAT...LON 39278244 39878212 40368130 40578058 40318011 39578009
    39278023 38448098 37608194 37528203 37338237 37398260
    38108297 38428295 39278244=20



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, March 24, 2023 23:39:32
    ACUS11 KWNS 242339
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 242339=20
    MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-250115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0328
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0639 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of northeast LA...southeast AR...and
    west-central MS

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 76...

    Valid 242339Z - 250115Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 76 continues.

    SUMMARY...Supercells should intensify during the next hour or so,
    with a corresponding increase in tornado potential.

    DISCUSSION...A favorable corridor for supercell intensification is
    evolving over portions of northeastern LA, southeast AR, and
    west-central MS this afternoon/early evening. Here, boundary-layer
    moisture is increasing (middle/upper 60s dewpoints) amid substantial
    surface pressure falls beneath a strengthening low-level jet (around
    50 kt at 850 mb per DGX VWP). The corresponding DGX VWP hodograph
    has increased in both size and clockwise curvature during the last
    few hours, with nearly 200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH sampled at DGX. As the
    low-level jet strengthens further, hodographs should only get larger along/south of an east/west-oriented marine front shifting
    northward. Current thinking is that a few supercell clusters near
    the MS river will intensify as they track northeastward into this
    increasingly favorable environment during the next hour or so, with
    a corresponding increase in tornado potential (some strong to
    intense).

    ..Weinman.. 03/24/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!84EEFnYUdh2b23-ZJ9cR2xamAMc_LkzPyybZNmeNzx2EL_kYAfcHXjwTQWxOye0LNjuAPV7j9= RWweDPEMR08MAPNfEE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

    LAT...LON 31949204 32529204 33119194 33569163 33919129 33969086
    33919044 33749011 33309009 32039077 31809120 31799180
    31949204=20


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