• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0327

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, March 23, 2022 20:14:36
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    ACUS11 KWNS 232014
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 232014=20
    OHZ000-MIZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-232215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0327
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0314 PM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022

    Areas affected...Northeastern Indiana...western and central Ohio

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 66...

    Valid 232014Z - 232215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 66
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A threat for marginally severe hail and brief tornadoes
    will continue for another few hours in eastern Indiana into central
    Ohio.

    DISCUSSION...Two areas of convection are ongoing on WW 66. The line
    within western/central Ohio remains within an environment with
    slightly greater moisture and more backed surface flow ahead of it.
    In addition to marginally severe hail, a brief tornado or two may
    occur given the pre-existing low-level vorticity. In Indiana, a
    weaker line of convection continues to pivot northeastward. Lower
    temperatures and moisture will generally temper the severe threat
    with this activity. However, cold temperatures aloft and adequate
    shear will mean marginally severe hail is possible with stronger
    storm cores.

    ..Wendt.. 03/23/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vWN10LypLdXS9zvZ3gMY9af9VXujFeZvFJmWuGaIIjOltUNVbO8l-ErGbBVL8ds_ZLrqQ4uF$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...

    LAT...LON 39508518 40578632 41228664 41818619 42118524 41968419
    41798357 41118266 39828275 39098335 38788361 38788391
    38948441 39508518=20



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, March 24, 2023 23:07:04
    ACUS11 KWNS 242306
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 242306=20
    MSZ000-250030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0327
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0606 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of south-central MS

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 76...

    Valid 242306Z - 250030Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 76 continues.

    SUMMARY...A couple supercells could mature over parts of
    south-central MS during the next hour or two -- posing an increased
    tornado threat.

    DISCUSSION...Recent radar data from DGX depicts a loosely organized
    supercell tracking north-northeastward across parts of south-central
    MS. This storm is evolving along the eastern edge of the warm sector
    and slightly south of an east/west-oriented marine front --
    demarcating the richer boundary-layer moisture (middle/upper 60s
    dewpoints) to the south. This portion of the warm sector had
    substantial diurnal destabilization/steepening low-level lapse rates
    amid the rich moisture (see 21Z observed JAN sounding). Ahead of the
    ongoing storm, visible satellite imagery shows billow clouds
    transitioning to HCRs -- indicative of a favorable overlap of
    boundary-layer instability and low-level shear. The VWP hodograph
    from DGX confirms this, indicating an expanding/clockwise-turning
    hodograph as well. If the developing storms can maintain appreciable
    residence time south of the marine warm front during the next couple
    hours, this corridor could be locally favorable for tornadoes.

    ..Weinman.. 03/24/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6uXkFkGb_oJ3Gaat6nryo9V78YlcTeZkZCUJl0eWPBdziqIpPObyCf8dE6KLZwq3GUqibDSE3= y_hPUaH3eAHBZStNHE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...

    LAT...LON 31928928 31658957 31649007 31959075 32339071 32699049
    33079019 33168980 33118939 33038922 32808905 32508901
    32208914 31928928=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, April 01, 2024 22:28:57
    ACUS11 KWNS 012228
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 012228=20
    MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-020000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0327
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0528 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024

    Areas affected...eastern Kansas and western/central Missouri

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 64...67...

    Valid 012228Z - 020000Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 64, 67 continues.

    SUMMARY...Numerous supercells are expected this evening with large
    to very large hail likely. The tornado threat will increase near and
    after sunset.

    DISCUSSION...A mature supercell has developed in southeast Kansas
    with hail up to golf ball sized reported. Additional supercells have
    started to develop along the warm front in central Missouri. MLCAPE
    of 1200 to 1500 J/kg and effective shear in excess of 70 knots (per
    SGF VWP) will support large to very large hail with any storms. SPC mesoanalysis shows STP around 1 to 1.5 at 22Z and the WoFs suggest
    STP around 3 by 00Z as the low-level jet strengthens. Therefore,
    expect a gradual increase in tornado intensity through the evening.

    ..Bentley.. 04/01/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9PwioIUmg1XL9SdfxARCxl2kfSXj0Yi6L6W0c54pGIht5OTenqiV1XoW6o94nuiwSKhP5cbwn= tM76d4Of2x2jfezi_4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

    LAT...LON 37039660 38179597 39009535 39619438 39499287 39159138
    38559120 38149156 37769261 37109369 36979429 37039660=20


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