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ACUS11 KWNS 231815
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231815=20
WVZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-231945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0325
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 PM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022

Areas affected...Far eastern Kentucky...southeastern Ohio...western
West Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 231815Z - 231945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A tornado watch is expected to be issued within the hour
for southeastern Ohio into western West Virginia. Tornadoes, large
hail, and damaging winds are possible this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Temperatures have risen into the low/mid 70s F across
parts of southeastern Ohio into western West Virginia. As heating
and modest moistening continues, MLCAPE value of 750-1000 J/kg will
be possible. The environment is strongly sheared with objective
mesoanalysis showing 70-85 kts. Furthermore, 850 mb winds are
expected to remain strong. Regional VAD winds are showing around 50
kts of flow at 850 mb. With discrete storms in the process of
maturing in eastern Kentucky and southern Ohio, the potential for
tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds will be on the increase
this afternoon as storms progress into this environment. A tornado
watch is likely to be issued within the hour.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 03/23/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qRogpIYcQ4iVP6b8DMK6LX5_ejIhX1FJMTvcc1XW_Ft3La1YAB45gTnN3thLp34VPK3yBiav$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...

LAT...LON 38568263 39528226 40048210 40298207 40708184 40908124
41048064 40538043 39668031 37988119 37338195 37528264
38138273 38568263=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 242229
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242228=20
TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-242330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0325
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0528 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

Areas affected...northeastern Arkansas...the Missouri Bootheel and
western Tennessee

Concerning...Tornado Watch 76...

Valid 242228Z - 242330Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 76 continues.

SUMMARY...Organized and gradually intensifying storms likely will be accompanied by increasing risk for damaging wind gusts and a few
tornadoes across northeastern Arkansas into western Tennessee,
including at least portions of the Greater Memphis area, through 7-9
PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...While there has been some fluctuation in intensity, a
gradually evolving convective system has generally maintained
organization, with one bowing segment in radar reflectivities
becoming a bit more prominent to the east and southeast of a
developing mesoscale convective vortex approaching the Batesville
vicinity. This segment appears to be propagating along the thermal
gradient associated with a remnant outflow boundary extending east-northeastward into western Tennessee.

As southerly to southwesterly lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields
strengthen (40-80+ kt in the 850-500 mb layer) coincident with a consolidating/deepening surface cyclone across central into
northeastern Arkansas through this evening, substantive further
intensification of the convective system appears possible. This
should be aided by inflow of moist air characterized by at least
weak around or in excess of 500 J/kg.

The lingering surface baroclinic zone likely will provide the focus
for the most intense embedded supercell structures/mesovortices, and
associated highest probabilities for severe wind and tornadoes.

..Kerr.. 03/24/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-lddc-qp4pFc3V2Bl1PHw8gzA5bjSjDzb-6Z8zWCmDnrTP01WmQok9Ada6e3Cp4zPrPHFacJ9= 0LWUmb_7tEmBWlTud4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON 36039140 36309015 36468849 35828806 35218920 34859147
35469132 36039140=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 012050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012050=20
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-012245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0325
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024

Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern Missouri into parts of
central Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 012050Z - 012245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A tornado watch may be needed within the next 1-2 hours as
additional storms may develop in east-central Missouri/central
Illinois. The environment is supportive of large/very-large hail and
damaging winds. The tornado threat is expected to increase this
evening as low-level shear increases near the boundary.

DISCUSSION...Cores within a broad area of precipitation have
occasionally pulsed in intensity. Some recent CAM guidance suggest
that additional storms will develop out of this activity within the
next 2-3 hours. While current wind profiles are not overly
supportive of tornadoes, storms will be near the warm front and
low-level shear should improve this evening as 850 mb winds
increase. Given the background environment and potential evolution
of this activity, a tornado watch will need to be considered.

..Wendt/Thompson.. 04/01/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9BHKA6zlZKyg7tOTxPbEGAsm9HCBz0-RXdM2F6dIKTILLlMQWVx2zkzCkA5DIYa9yvJQOV1Pf= BMFr3Et8B6svJKYnsI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IND...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON 39299311 39839092 39848842 39538742 39128758 38238994
38109132 38389261 39299311=20


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