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ACUS11 KWNS 231753
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231752=20
VAZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-OHZ000-231915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0324
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 PM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022

Areas affected...Eastern Tennessee and eastern Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 231752Z - 231915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging winds may occur as storms mature
over the next 2-3 hours. Limited buoyancy will keep these threats
isolated initially. A watch is possible for parts of the region
should convective intensity trends warrant.

DISCUSSION...Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to develop
in parts of eastern Tennessee and Kentucky. Very strong shear
beneath the mid-level jet (70-85 kts) has lead to a few discrete
structures in eastern Tennessee. With currently limited buoyancy,
storms may struggle to mature in this strongly sheared environment.
However, modest moistening and strong heating ahead of the activity
should promote a gradual increase in intensity over the next few
hours. Large hail and isolated damaging winds will be possible as
these storms mature. Low-level wind profiles will support a low-end
tornado threat, though the greater threat should remain farther
north and east where 850 mb winds will remain stronger into the
afternoon and greater buoyancy will exist. The need for a watch in
parts of the region will depend on how quickly storms can mature.
Trends will be monitored.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 03/23/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qCiowcD7D5z-nPHdOC8_ob2irt05y0-vN704-cNY4d-3mucTI3YEhG_auVyune9HEbinDH-A$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON 35698438 36908442 38108416 38678350 38668337 38548307
38278294 36718274 36128319 35748358 35478411 35488436
35698438=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 242157
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242156=20
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-250000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0324
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0456 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

Areas affected...Northeastern LA...southeastern AR...western MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 242156Z - 250000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The supercell tornado risk will gradually increase over
the next couple hours across portions of the Lower MS Valley.
Several tornadoes (some strong to intense) are possible. A tornado
watch will be needed in the next 30-60 min.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations show rich boundary-layer
moisture (middle/upper 60s dewpoints) spreading northward across
portions of the Lower MS Valley -- aided by ongoing cyclogenesis
near the ArkLaTex vicinity. Earlier diurnal heating and a
strengthening low-level jet over the warm sector have aided in the
development of north/south-oriented confluence bands extending from
LA northward into southeastern AR and western MS. Isolated
convection is evolving along these bands in the warm sector -- ahead
of a primary pre-frontal trough farther west.

During the next couple hours, these storms should continue spreading
northward and maturing as large-scale ascent and surface pressure
falls continue amid increasing boundary-layer moisture. The
downstream environment will feature enlarging/clockwise-turning
low-level hodographs favorable for increasingly organized cyclonic
supercells. And, given the subtle low-level forcing mechanism, a
discrete or semi-discrete mode is possible for at least a few hours.
Therefore, the supercell tornado risk (some strong to intense) will
gradually increase as storms mature during the next few hours, with
large hail and locally damaging winds also possible. A tornado watch
will likely be issued in the next 30-60 min.

..Weinman/Thompson.. 03/24/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8qiMavNL0zNzo811CePCbNxjaQDD68VSJdetyDTpmAwvj5EJvlIfXyitrr4ANeKui9jzYYv2j= 3so0EbFHaZaRWu_a_c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 31399260 31739284 32389285 33319268 34579208 34779157
34769106 34699037 34348989 33648981 32978985 32139008
31549054 31159117 31219194 31399260=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 012001
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012001=20
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-012130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0324
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0301 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024

Areas affected...Far eastern Kansas into western Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 012001Z - 012130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Storms capable of all severe hazards will move into far
eastern Kansas and western Missouri later this afternoon. A tornado
watch is likely within the next hour.

DISCUSSION...Storms have initiated in far northeast Kansas and have
moved into northwest Missouri. Additional storms are likely to move
into western Missouri from north-central Oklahoma/southeast Kansas
over the next few hours. While timing of storm arrival in
southwestern Missouri is not certain, weak convection with lightning
has developed in northeastern Oklahoma and is moving northeast. That
all said, the severe risk for far eastern Kansas and western
Missouri will be increasing late this afternoon into the evening. Large/very-large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes will all be
possible. Low-level shear, particularly for southwest Missouri, will
initially be weak. However, the low-level jet will increase by early
evening. A tornado watch is likely within the next hour.

..Wendt/Thompson.. 04/01/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9ffKf_QfRMYzMzS-B-hygo4cs4WQ9slVTrXtBaYhp-0mmOJxbmk8istr0c-ReJNEaVw_LzUC0= CBpH7f4QZ0ASV_A1AU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...

LAT...LON 38629237 37019223 36709253 36569430 36609458 36689478
37149493 37319494 39479507 39849496 40189436 40329288
39629249 38629237=20


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