• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0321

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, March 23, 2022 09:33:01
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    ACUS11 KWNS 230932
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 230932=20
    GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-231100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0321
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0432 AM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022

    Areas affected...Portions of the FL Panhandle...southeastern
    AL...and southwestern GA

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 65...

    Valid 230932Z - 231100Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 65 continues.

    SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may persist east of Tornado
    Watch 65. A downstream watch will probably be needed.

    DISCUSSION...Recent radar trends show occasional low-level rotation
    with storms moving onshore across parts of the FL Panhandle Coast.
    Based on latest RAP forecast soundings, mid to upper 60s surface
    dewpoints will probably be needed to support surface-based storms.
    09Z surface observations show adequate low-level moisture has
    advanced inland across most of the FL Panhandle ahead of the ongoing
    storms, as well as parts of far southeastern AL and southwestern GA.
    Strong low-level flow and shear associated with a 40-50 kt southerly
    low-level jet will likely support continued updraft rotation, and a
    threat for isolated tornadoes and strong/gusty winds. Storms will
    approach the eastern bound of Tornado Watch 65 in the next 1-2
    hours, and it is scheduled to expire at 11Z (6 AM CDT/7 AM EDT).
    Even though instability becomes increasingly marginal with eastward
    extent, there may still be enough boundary-layer instability to
    support a continued severe threat east of the current watch,
    particularly along/near the coast of the FL Panhandle. Accordingly,
    a downstream Tornado Watch will probably be needed by 11Z.

    ..Gleason/Grams.. 03/23/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sH2GQ-f3XFJe2uwN0rsAMRcm94T5m_BaoTRT18GDbA2IBYbxxrC67mGjzbHyk4yIyDC_RIQX$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TAE...

    LAT...LON 31218599 31568537 31748486 31708390 31568345 31018325
    30548334 29908372 30058401 30028427 29878433 29568501
    29658538 29868545 30088573 30338618 31218599=20



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, March 24, 2023 17:43:32
    ACUS11 KWNS 241743
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 241742=20
    ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-242015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0321
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1242 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

    Areas affected...northeast Texas...central and southern Arkansas and
    parts of northern Louisiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 241742Z - 242015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
    along a cold front, with a damaging wind, hail and tornado risk
    developing through the afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Storms have increased recently along a cold front from
    southeast OK into northeast TX, and this trend is likely to continue
    as the air mass destabilizes downstream toward the Arklatex.=20

    Surface analysis shows modifying outflow extending eastward across
    central AR, with a leading line of storms heading toward the Memphis
    area. Southerly winds are gusting to over 30 kt south of the dying
    outflow boundary in AR, and surface observations near the Red River
    are recovering. As such, the severe risk area will likely include
    parts of AR which are currently cooler/stable, due to expected
    destabilization later today.

    Low pressure will move east/northeast across the modifying outflow
    zone, reaching northeast AR by 00Z. This zone will be a favored area
    for severe storms including tornadoes and damaging winds, with mixed
    storm modes possible. Low-level shear is currently strongest in this
    area, averaging around 250 m2/s2 0-1 SRH. However, shear across the
    entire region will become more favorable for supercells and
    tornadoes later today.

    Through early afternoon, the severe risk is expected to evolve from
    the activity over northeast TX as it moves into AR and interacts
    with the enhanced low-level shear zone.

    ..Jewell/Guyer.. 03/24/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8w_ValsWdBwJ5LGSVr_0XYhveGDHQ0fOtPptzKyG-DfPgwi2Fgi9JXdSLEinHYbIUSktuEoFB= mWsVeAMmP-VL9IWaZg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...FWD...

    LAT...LON 32479252 31909396 31859512 32289553 32699563 33219555
    33639534 33899512 34209479 34689390 34989310 35179167
    35069121 34639108 33789143 32969202 32479252=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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