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ACUS11 KWNS 230240
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230240=20
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-230445-
Mesoscale Discussion 0317
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0940 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022
Areas affected...Far southeast Mississippi...southwestern into
eastern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle
Concerning...Tornado Watch 63...64...
Valid 230240Z - 230445Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 63, 64 continues.
SUMMARY...The severe threat across Tornado Watches 063 and 064
continues. A damaging gust or a tornado remains possible over the
next few hours. A downstream Tornado Watch will be needed by 04Z.
DISCUSSION...A QLCS continues to meander eastward across central
Alabama, with a few semi-discrete, transient supercells ongoing
along the Gulf Coastal area. These storms are progressing eastward
in an impressively sheared environment, but with gradually waning
instability. The area 88-D VADs depict large, curved hodographs,
with 300-600 m2/s2 0-1km SRH. While surface temperatures have been
cooling into the upper 60s/low 70s F, increasing surface dewpoints
may offset temperature-related buoyancy decreases given a continued
northward moisture flux.=20
Nonetheless, given the intense low-level shear and modest deep-layer
ascent present, any storm that manages to organize may produce a
damaging gust or a tornado. The best chance for a damaging gust
would be with the central AL QLCS, with a tornado equally likely
embedded within this QLCS, or with any supercell that can sustain
low-level rotation from central AL to the Gulf Coast. A downstream
Tornado Watch will be needed by 04Z across southern/eastern Alabama
into the Western Florida Panhandle to address the continuing severe
threat.
..Squitieri.. 03/23/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!s8LjUN3cAHanSFRDRPbkCDOW9Ms-31B_CXvUz8IxvY7gPQqTb-69pGSKpAJ15d0FG1HnPbln$=
for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 29868965 30988920 32158827 33848723 33958707 33918672
33678604 33398573 32988554 32398546 31528546 30958563
30548592 30328644 30188729 30108829 29868965=20
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