• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0317

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, March 23, 2022 02:40:30
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    ACUS11 KWNS 230240
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 230240=20
    ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-230445-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0317
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0940 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022

    Areas affected...Far southeast Mississippi...southwestern into
    eastern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 63...64...

    Valid 230240Z - 230445Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 63, 64 continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat across Tornado Watches 063 and 064
    continues. A damaging gust or a tornado remains possible over the
    next few hours. A downstream Tornado Watch will be needed by 04Z.

    DISCUSSION...A QLCS continues to meander eastward across central
    Alabama, with a few semi-discrete, transient supercells ongoing
    along the Gulf Coastal area. These storms are progressing eastward
    in an impressively sheared environment, but with gradually waning
    instability. The area 88-D VADs depict large, curved hodographs,
    with 300-600 m2/s2 0-1km SRH. While surface temperatures have been
    cooling into the upper 60s/low 70s F, increasing surface dewpoints
    may offset temperature-related buoyancy decreases given a continued
    northward moisture flux.=20

    Nonetheless, given the intense low-level shear and modest deep-layer
    ascent present, any storm that manages to organize may produce a
    damaging gust or a tornado. The best chance for a damaging gust
    would be with the central AL QLCS, with a tornado equally likely
    embedded within this QLCS, or with any supercell that can sustain
    low-level rotation from central AL to the Gulf Coast. A downstream
    Tornado Watch will be needed by 04Z across southern/eastern Alabama
    into the Western Florida Panhandle to address the continuing severe
    threat.

    ..Squitieri.. 03/23/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!s8LjUN3cAHanSFRDRPbkCDOW9Ms-31B_CXvUz8IxvY7gPQqTb-69pGSKpAJ15d0FG1HnPbln$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...LIX...

    LAT...LON 29868965 30988920 32158827 33848723 33958707 33918672
    33678604 33398573 32988554 32398546 31528546 30958563
    30548592 30328644 30188729 30108829 29868965=20



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, March 24, 2023 02:32:56
    ACUS11 KWNS 240232
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 240232=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-240430-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0317
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0932 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023

    Areas affected...Northwest TX into southern OK

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 71...

    Valid 240232Z - 240430Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 71
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The risk of large hail continues with ongoing supercells
    from northwest TX into south-central OK (across Severe Thunderstorm
    Watch 71). Trends are being monitored for an additional watch
    issuance for parts of the area tonight.

    DISCUSSION...Splitting supercells capable of large hail are ongoing
    from northwest TX into portions of south-central OK -- north of a quasi-stationary surface boundary draped through the area. While
    most of these storms are likely elevated atop the frontal surface,
    60+ kt of cloud-layer shear (per regional VWP data) characterized by long/mostly straight hodographs is still supporting loosely
    organized splitting supercell structures. During the next few hours,
    this activity will generally track east-northeastward across
    southern OK with a continued risk of large hail. It is unclear if
    this continued activity will warrant an additional watch issuance
    upon the 04Z expiration of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 71, though
    convective trends will be monitored.

    ..Weinman/Thompson.. 03/24/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9BqHK5rTrbHr-JPB-7tL-XgzUzXCbb9Twp7ZoeBaNylY95yw9mgsaVEMLh_WHx6IofS4VJj35= _RPWAS34t3gCwo-0u4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

    LAT...LON 34219920 34509878 34889757 35039682 35089615 34909561
    34499560 34189593 34049658 33779790 33209918 33209974
    33519989 33839964 34219920=20


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