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ACUS11 KWNS 222258
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222257=20
ALZ000-TNZ000-230030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0315
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0557 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022

Areas affected...portions of central into northern Alabama

Concerning...Tornado Watch 62...63...

Valid 222257Z - 230030Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 62, 63 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watches
062-063. Damaging gusts may accompany the stronger bowing segments,
and a tornado may also occur with the more sustained supercell
structures.

DISCUSSION...A broken QLCS with a history of damaging gusts and
tornadoes continues to progress toward central Alabama. The line
consists of both bowing segments and semi-discrete, transient
supercell structures per MRMS mosaic and KBMX radar data. While
low-level moisture continues to advect ahead of the line, latest
surface observations suggest that the QLCS is gradually outpacing
the eastward advection of better moisture (i.e. 65+ F surface
dewpoints) and resultant buoyancy (500+ J/kg MLCAPE). As such, the
overall robustness of the severe wind/tornado threat remains in
question. Nonetheless, BMX and MXX VWPs have recently shown very
large, curved hodographs, depicting very strong low-level shear
capable of supporting damaging gusts and tornadoes. On balance, an
appreciable severe threat remains in the current low-CAPE/high shear environment, and a few more damaging gusts/a couple of tornadoes
remain possible into early evening.

..Squitieri.. 03/22/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uk8oNHFFCMoXbQPK18z9Tw4Bjkah6-skJbSFHuxA07_YXtccre77a-W9n0WxFSkMdOb5pJWx$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON 32358809 32558810 32798801 33468766 34188730 34908709
34998689 34408648 34018614 33468619 32958648 32588675
32468724 32368765 32358809=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 240023
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240022=20
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-240215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0315
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0722 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023

Areas affected...Southeastern MO...southern IL...far southwest
IN...and far western KY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 240022Z - 240215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of strong to severe storms capable of large hail
could increase into the overnight hours. Trends are being monitored
for a possible watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...During the next few hours, an east-northeast/west-southwest-oriented quasi-stationary surface
boundary will move slightly southward, while a strengthening
low-level jet to the south (over the warm sector) gradually
strengthens. This will result in strengthening isentropic ascent and
increasing storm coverage in the vicinity of the boundary. While
deep-layer flow/shear oriented parallel to the boundary will
generally support elevated storms, nearly 60 kt of effective shear
will still support organized supercell structures capable of large
hail. And, if any of this activity tracks more eastward along/ahead
of the boundary, upscale growth and near-surface-based inflow could
allow for locally damaging gusts. The overall severe threat is
uncertain given the potential for mostly elevated storms, though
trends will be monitored for a possible watch issuance.

..Weinman/Thompson.. 03/24/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-zkMXRN9sKMZ-PVcmrjqH0ToBKiqJ3iwxBpOhBurgOEW7rWN9cZ-jbcbcjxd_S4yxIIDVdphJ= RY5BMXvGSIIwNjpasc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON 37549126 37799013 38008912 38218817 38228766 38078738
37748735 37438761 37098862 36509085 36569143 36759174
37049182 37329177 37549126=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 311559
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311558=20
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-311830-

Mesoscale Discussion 0315
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1058 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024

Areas affected...northern Missouri and adjacent portions of southern Iowa/northwestern Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 311558Z - 311830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An initial period of increasing thunderstorm development
appears likely across parts of northern Missouri into southeastern
Iowa and and northwestern Illinois his afternoon. This may include
strong thunderstorms posing a risk of severe hail for an hour or two
early this afternoon across parts of northwestern Missouri, before a
broader area of generally weaker thunderstorms evolves while
spreading northeastward.

DISCUSSION...Deepening convective development is evident within a
narrow corridor, roughly west-northwest of the St. Joseph through
Chillicothe MO vicinity. This is rooted above a near-surface
inversion layer, along/above a strengthening frontal zone, aided by
ascent supported by weak to modest low-level warm advection.

Beneath anticyclonic flow within the crest of broad mid/upper
ridging east of the southern Rockies into the Appalachians,
mid/upper support for convection, if any, appears subtle. However,
latest model output indicates increasing probabilities for
thunderstorm initiation west-northwest through north of the
Chillicothe vicinity by 17-18Z, where/when forecast soundings
indicate modest conditional and convective instability in the
presence of strong convective layer shear.=20=20

This environment may be conducive to the evolution of an initial
supercell structure of two, which may pose a risk for severe hail.=20 Thereafter, guidance suggests warmer and more strongly capping
elevated mixed-layer air will tend to gradually spread across and
north of the surface warm frontal zone. As this occurs, the warm
advection driven convection, while perhaps becoming more widespread,
may tend to become increasingly displaced to the north of the better instability near and south of the frontal zonal, resulting in
diminishing risk for severe hail.

..Kerr/Thompson.. 03/31/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5nzc7to1dVX1-fKF9PB9Dee-pXVcOEatrGfqbHKDNmAL1xd7Ry7KHT2qtucRimBR6U_5CH1o1= VIMVlKgfQt8366VrII$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...

LAT...LON 39909505 40619549 40839287 40629147 40239104 39749232
39739339 39909505=20


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