ACUS11 KWNS 130037
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130037=20
MTZ000-130200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1676
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 PM CDT Fri Aug 12 2022

Areas affected...West-central MT

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 130037Z - 130200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe gusts will be possible this
evening. Watch issuance is possible if observational trends support
a more organized severe wind risk.

DISCUSSION...A loosely organized storm cluster has emerged from the
higher terrain of western MT and is now approaching Great Falls and
vicinity. The KTFX sounding was only weakly unstable (MLCAPE less
than 500 J/kg), but large temperature/dewpoint spreads will support
some threat for strong to severe wind gusts as this cluster moves
eastward this evening, even if individual convective elements within
the cluster are not particularly intense.=20

The relatively limited intensity of this cluster renders the need
for a watch uncertain, but if short-term observational trends
support a more organized severe-wind risk through the evening, watch
issuance for parts of central MT will be possible.

..Dean/Goss.. 08/13/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!78ceJiJ5qlvsL1KGCqzFEEiw_XXUuzyXjusOa93v66UoblnLMYNU_43M0RVcKp0e7dZHtZUS7= 4PCQDkKwybXwa-jZcc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TFX...

LAT...LON 47741266 48161206 48371118 48281031 47670988 47220994
46861001 46781036 46721072 46611110 46551165 46821197
47131229 47741266=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 221806
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221806=20
LAZ000-MSZ000-221930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1676
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

Areas affected...portions of central/southern LA into far southern
MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 221806Z - 221930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to gradually increase
over the next 1-2 hours. Locally strong gusts will be possible
through early evening.

DISCUSSION...Strong heating and surface dewpoints in the low/mid 70s
F have contributed to MLCAPE around 2500-3000 J/kg across the region
this afternoon. Thunderstorms are increasing to the southwest of a
severe warned cluster over southern MS along a southward-sagging
surface front. Visible satellite imagery has shown
increasing/deepening cumulus near the surface boundary over the past
couple of hours, and additional thunderstorm development is expected
in the next 1-2 hours. Vertical shear is weaker compared to further
east across WW 539. However, given moderate/strong instability, high
PW values (near 2 inches), and steep low-level lapse rates near 8
C/km, sporadic wet microbursts are possible. If sufficient
clustering/outflow consolidation occurs, damaging wind potential
could increase with any forward-propagating clusters that develop.
Convective trends will be monitored, and a severe thunderstorm watch
could be issued at some point this afternoon if organized clusters
develop.

..Leitman/Hart.. 07/22/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5F3t846gptdh-5sjZ5ce8e9_Ad4bUa65UkII8m0uiT3-smBQ9PHSAlHlb3d3J0YTepxqnRyBQ= QetJTjlikhC-tdFfng$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 31259333 31419088 31298968 30818945 30378951 29998958
29888993 29789039 29809131 30039246 30849349 30879345
31259333=20


=3D =3D =3D
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