ACUS11 KWNS 122353
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122352=20
MTZ000-130115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1675
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 PM CDT Fri Aug 12 2022

Areas affected...portions of eastern Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 122352Z - 130115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe wind/hail threat may persist across
eastern MT over the next few hours with thunderstorm clusters. A WW
issuance appears unlikely given the isolated nature of the more
intense storms.

DISCUSSION...A modest uptick in the severe threat has been noted
across eastern Montana over the past hour, both with a supercell
crossing the U.S. border from Saskatchewan, and with loosely
organized convection near Billings, MT. Despite the presence of a CU
field beneath the anvils of ongoing convection across eastern MT,
buoyancy is scant given the presence of a dry boundary layer
extending to nearly 500 mb (per latest RAP forecast soundings). More appreciable flow is confined well above 500 mb, contributing to bulk
effective shear values at/below 30 kts. The overall mediocre
CAPE/shear parameter space suggests that storms should remain
isolated and loosely organized over the next couple of hours, with
an isolated severe gust or hailstone possible with the ongoing
storms given steep low and mid-level lapse rates. It is not entirely
out of the question for storms in western MT to grow upscale and
approach eastern MT with a severe gust threat, but the confidence in
this scenario is low. As such, the expected sparse nature of the
severe threat suggests that a WW issuance is not currently
warranted.

..Squitieri/Goss.. 08/12/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4RgXY6wIhiEVP1Tkdq7OBDRlm9jG61w-Cg8oyhlQLkhxMvB1BYbKCgFJNLiCwWj1ptlFST5Kx= aM3uytM5yRlQevku4Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON 48930973 49160938 49250811 49060742 48190579 46560453
45870432 45430470 45210579 45190692 45250782 45470874
45790954 46720981 47650979 48930973=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 221601
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221600=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-221800-

Mesoscale Discussion 1675
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

Areas affected...portions of southern MS/AL/GA and the FL Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 221600Z - 221800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms coverage/intensity is expected to increase
over the next 1-2 hours. Strong gusts are possible with this
activity. Trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Strong heating along/ahead of a quasi-stationary front
and composite outflow boundary, stretching from far southern MS
eastward to southwest GA, has allowed development of MLCAPE to
2500-3500 J/kg. Towering cumulus along the surface boundary, as well
as deepening cumulus into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle, has
increased over the past 30-60 minutes as boundary layer inhibition
has eroded. Bands/clusters of thunderstorms are expected to increase
in coverage and intensity over the next couple of hours. This
activity will remain on the southern fringes of stronger midlevel
flow, but effective shear values around 25 kt will allow for some
organization. If enough cold pool generation occurs within this very moist/unstable and modestly sheared environment, damaging wind
potential could increase with any south/southeast propagating
clusters. While the need for a severe thunderstorm watch does not
appear imminent, trends will be monitored for possible watch
issuance sometime this afternoon.

..Leitman/Hart.. 07/22/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6JaAJXnKs2hu9Hge9bjW7_8uM3HoZLeUB-EeCdw6zRhUuJFL4AqGIXcvoJbCCljOtqz17t9mu= NNU1_TQA7oyQkUy-Sk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 30248769 30428907 30898944 31288935 31568903 31828609
32008388 31998366 31868336 31528295 31208274 30878273
30588296 30348345 30148446 30248769=20


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