ACUS11 KWNS 112024
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112023=20
IDZ000-MTZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-112300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1672
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0323 PM CDT Thu Aug 11 2022

Areas affected...northeast Oregon...parts of central Idaho

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 112023Z - 112300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms are expected to form over the next
several hours, from eastern Oregon into parts of Idaho, and a few
may produce severe hail.

DISCUSSION...Conditions continue to destabilize with heating, as
dewpoints hold mainly in the 50s F and GPS PWAT values exceed 1.00".
Convection is already increasing over the high terrain of northeast
OR, central ID, and Owyhee County ID. Other diurnal storms may form
later this afternoon within the surface trough across a good part of
eastern OR as the airmass is uncapped and heating continues.

Relatively cool midlevel temperatures exist, which will aid updraft acceleration and hail potential. In addition, overall wind profiles
will favor cellular activity, perhaps a supercell or two with
midlevel rotation enhancing hail potential. Increasing speed shear
with height will also favor hail, as hodographs will generally be
long and straight. A storm or two may also produce locally strong
wind gusts.

..Jewell.. 08/11/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!68UDh9bEaAmP6y__8MzrHMl32fppM7AW0JMvYHivQf2Kds7DsWAofvnjIAxX2zam7eW4ptokd= ezlnuyyxbfWcjTJwMw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...

LAT...LON 45581825 47041756 47621699 47741623 47401524 46891470
46101440 45491437 44571450 43881493 43411528 42461570
42111623 42191689 42451735 42891762 43841766 44731808
45251834 45581825=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS11 KWNS 220005
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220005=20
GAZ000-ALZ000-220130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1672
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0705 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023

Areas affected...Southern Alabama dns southwest Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 220005Z - 220130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms are expected across southern
Alabama and southwest Georgia over the next few hours. Isolated
damaging wind gusts are possible.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed south of watch 538 in an
unstable airmass with 2000 to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE (per SPC
mesoanalysis). However, storms have been mostly unorganized thus far
amid very weak deep layer flow (less than 20 knots through the
entire troposphere). Therefore, despite a favorable thermodynamic
profile, weak shear and minimal forcing for ascent should keep the
threat isolated. In addition, any marginal threat should quickly
wane once the boundary layer begins to cool. While some expansion of
watch 538 may be needed across portions of south-central Alabama and
southwest Georgia, no downstream watch is anticipated over this area
due to the marginal and short duration threat.

..Bentley/Edwards.. 07/22/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7cfhiZmZHRdknSLISyeH8QnhyDwfawWBhFZanRMv3MiyggOlA9gLYs-j1joxDZBQILmQLz36y= 6Czzr6p9qNXpdg_z9w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 32318828 32548643 32508500 32488438 32228373 31928343
31288399 31038596 31248753 31358801 31608826 32318828=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)