This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1647969863-33134-142
Content-Type: text/plain
Content-Transfer-Encoding: Quoted-printable

ACUS11 KWNS 221719
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221719=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-221915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0310
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022

Areas affected...Parts of southern into central Mississippi

Concerning...Tornado Watch 61...

Valid 221719Z - 221915Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 61 continues.

SUMMARY...One or two sustained, long track supercells with the
potential to produce strong tornadoes may gradually begin to emerge
across south central through east central Mississippi through
18-21Z, in advance of a squall line progressing east of the lower
Mississippi Valley.

DISCUSSION...Strongest boundary-layer destabilization the past few
hours has been focused along a corridor of stronger low-level warm
advection, preceding the increasingly extensive cluster of
thunderstorms slowly spreading into/across the lower Mississippi
Valley. This is contributing to deepening convective development
across much of southern through central Mississippi, which likely
will continue through the 18-21Z time frame. Though the number of
cells will probably decrease, stronger more widely scattered
discrete storms probably will begin to emerge in an environment with
CAPE increasing to 1500+ J/kg. The continued inland and northward
propagation of a strong southerly 850 mb speed maximum has and will
continue to contribute to very large, clockwise curved low-level
hodographs conducive to the evolution of sustained, strong
mesocyclones with the potential to produce significant tornadoes.=20
Given the strength of the south-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow,
these will be fast moving (in excess of 50 kt) with the potential
for one or two to become fairly long track.

..Kerr.. 03/22/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uoNFQ5MfsHbOONRoj2rocWxXUcP8LwbIjezc3pH-jUze7vtyBWsM26y0ZUgm2u9tnqIfJJT_$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 33558907 33238830 32318824 30878919 30478995 30519092
31249084 32518994 33558907=20



------------=_1647969863-33134-142
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit
MIME-Version: 1.0

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1647969863-33134-142--

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS11 KWNS 231934
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231933=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-232100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0310
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023

Areas affected...western north TX...southwest into central OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 231933Z - 232100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A convective watch (probably a severe thunderstorm) is
expected as storms develop between 300-400pm across southwest into
central OK. Large to very large hail will be the primary severe
hazard with supercells, but a tornado and severe gusts are also
possible.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows towering cumulus over
Tillman County, OK and Wilbarger County, TX. Convective initiation
appears imminent and other storm development is expected over the
next 1-2 hours northeastward along a slowly sagging cold front
draped near I-44.=20=20

Surface observations show temperatures nearing 80 deg F over western
north TX to the immediate south of the boundary. Considerable cloud cover/showers have largely limited heating across south-central OK
during the past 1-2 hours, with temperatures holding in the low-mid
70s. Moderate buoyancy has developed over western north TX and is
reduced with northeast extent into central OK due to cloud
cover/shower activity. The 18z Norman, OK raob showed a layer of
very steep lapse rates between 700-450 mb (8.5 deg C/km). Low-level
flow is not forecast to appreciably intensify until later this
evening and this will limit hodograph size and the potential for a
tornado. However, strong southwesterly mid-level winds (60-65 kt at
500mb) will promote storm organization. A few strong supercells may
eventually develop and emerge from a corridor extending from western
north TX northeastward into southwest OK through the early evening.=20
Other strong to severe thunderstorms will likely develop over parts
of central OK later this afternoon into the evening.

..Smith/Guyer.. 03/23/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7PGivWhr39UZOxYmz21wBX6hfmlHHAkX8ROvPG31jWCGHXE7d630K9W1vLcq_hjt7MnAvmTNf= j6BTacBHe7AO7RbJCc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON 32979897 33130036 34529926 35629736 35659628 34749624
32979897=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS11 KWNS 271853
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271852=20
TXZ000-272115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0310
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Areas affected...parts of central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 271852Z - 272115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...The risk for a few strong thunderstorms with potential to
produce severe hail and locally strong surface gusts appears likely
to increase by 4-6 PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...Beneath cold air (including 500 mb temperatures around
-23 to -26 C) associated with mid-level troughing shifting across
the southern Great Plains, a deepening well-mixed boundary-layer
continues to evolve with daytime heating across the Edwards Plateau
into Hill Country. Near the leading edge of the stronger
differential surface heating, where surface dew points are still as
high as the mid/upper 40s F, destabilization is contributing to
deepening convective development, within moderately sheared westerly
to west-northwesterly deep-layer mean flow.

With additional insolation, it appears that mixed-layer CAPE may
increase in excess of 500 J/kg. As the sharp trailing flank of the
mid-level cold pool begins to progress east-northeast of the Permian
Basin, strongest instability is forecast to shift toward the I-35
corridor of central Texas through 21-23Z, where/when initiation and intensification of thunderstorm activity appear increasingly
probable, perhaps aided by ascent associated with low-level warm
advection.

Given the evolving thermodynamic profiles and favorable deep-layer
shear, a few supercell structures may develop and pose a risk for
producing severe hail and locally strong surface gusts through early
evening, before weakening.

..Kerr/Hart.. 03/27/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!83B6x1CMiRHvv_4oF1zCKWi4e4x_RBoTcfh4X13EMgENdUPFwOSpUafFiPFFdfhA5Hhfm__Xj= uOsvpslK7kmbnVKVww$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 32339814 31519735 30239760 30089850 32119908 32339814=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)